Stevo6899

It's funny how just a couple years can change your mindset and thinking. 2-3 years ago, those on the northwest fringe of storms thought they were sitting pretty In case of last minute NW trend/stronger low pressure systems, which we saw often. The past couple years its been the opposite for the most part.  I never thought I would miss the Northwest trend days. Hoping we can get back to that the next few weeks. Ill take potential for sleet and rain over dry, cold and miss the the SE.

As often in this setup, the low wants to transfer its energy to a coastal vs remaining dominant and strengthening as it moves NE. This is why its so hard to get a big dog in the eastern great lakes/subforum.

I haven't been home since nov 1st, but via cam near my front door, I can confirm I see blades of grass peaking through the snow. The lack of big dog potential in my neck of the woods this winter is a bummer. Old crusty snowcover doesnt do anything for me but y'all enjoy your yellow/black dirty snowcover.

46 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ukmet going big at the end of the run, obv favoring eastern portions of sub

We gotta get a shortwave with some strength to come along before this cold air retreats and were back to dealing with precip issues. Early indications the euro is still gonna have a respectable storm based on the ridging and location of high pressure. Maybe a lil further east.

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

counterpoint: get ready 2 b buried

Its gonna have to be very buried to get me to leave 85 and sunny down here in estero florida. If only my family and friends knew id fly home for a snowstorm lol.

It seems like for the past 2 weeks the gfs has had a pretty big storm at about 160 hours and then it fades and 2 days later another storm at 160 hours lol. Definitly desperate for a decent snowstorm to even be looking past 100 hours on any model.

The SE ridge needs to wake up and man up. Id rather a miss nw than cold and suppression.

39 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

[Paula Cole voice] Where have all the snowstorms gone

The once promising train of baroclinic snows has moved south and trek into the east coast. Weak waves in midwest slowly blossom into 4-8 events for the east coast. Damn ocean moisture source. Hopefully we can run into a big storm a week or so from now as maybe the pattern changes.

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The other night we had some of the heaviest rates anyone in this sub has had this Winter (outside of a lake band I'm sure). 3" fell in 1.5 hour and it was dense snow too. Total accumulation for the 4 hour event was just over 4" so obviously not a big storm, but coming from someone who has criticised many big storms over the years for taking too many hours, you should have appreciated the weather porn aspect of it.

Yea it would've been cool to be home for that. Still down in Florida until march. I have a bunch of delta miles to use and planned to use them this winter if a 8+ storm looked likely. I assumed back in November I would fly home atleast once this winter but there's been no opportunities. 

33 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It did not take long for the snow to reach the ground here.  It's snowing pretty good.  I may be able to get an inch before it quickly moves out.

Were waiting for the "when you're hot, you're hot" comment. Dont mind me, just a jealous hater currently.

4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Hanging your hopes on one operational model run will usually end in disappointment. 

Other models had a respectable storm also.  Not really a disappointment, just the usual this winter. It happens. Thanks for the obvious reminder though. 

Disappointing this turned into a weak turd. Looked promising for a few runs a couple days ago on the euro. It seems every event that shows promise in SEMI this winter turns to poo. All were asking for is one solid event in a 4 month span nov-feb.

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z guidance has revived this.


.

Plenty of energy right on its heels too. Atleast it looks somewhat active during this cold stretch 

Pretty much non existent on the ukmet also. Rap and hhr prob off their rocker.

32 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

I'd take that HRRR run all day. Low gets cranking as it over CLE and is a great hit for the SEMI crew. Feeling optimistic with this one. Felt good for the last storm too and it played out how I thought it would. Bring it

First call: 5"

With the high ratios, slower movement, and potential strengthening as it moves NE, has overachiever written all over it. Would be fitting our biggest snow event of the winter would materialize less than 48 hrs before the event.

Obviously you can't really take the hhr at hour 50 very seriously but if you extrapolate the 6z run, you  would think the totals west in illinois/ind would translate eastward into michigan. Sub 999 low intensifying. Its pretty wild how much the models are struggling with this setup. Perhaps alot of the energy is originating in the nw, in Canada. Usually models struggle with canadian energy. The early next week threat looked like the bigger potential, now this one is trying to take its place, pretty much 48 hrs out. 

5 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Been redeveloping over SE Oakland too. Out taking video and enjoying this, but gotta be at around 3”. This has been money

 I look forward to your videos. I will live vicariously through the next 4-5 days.

Wish i was in Michigan for this. Looks like macomb is getting heavy bands redeveloping overhead. Might be the jackpot area.

I think if the late weekend storm can slide off the East Coast and not intensify too much like the ggem portrays, this leaves the baroclinic zone further north, and allow some ridging for some amplification of this wave of energy. 

26 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

I don’t think he lives in the hills. I think he’s in southern oakland. 

Either way i think he still has better potential in berkley.

48 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Hrrr locked in with ~4” tonight. Should be ripping for a few hours. Hope to get some TSSN. It’s been since 2/20/14 that I’ve had TSSN imby, though I did experience TSSN with a couple visible CG’s in a snow squall in Macomb county in Feb 2017. 

Afraid of warmer air and tongue sneaking in here on the east side. Thundersnow and better potential for overachieving out your way in oakland county.

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Me and aaron go way back lol. I aint lyin tho.

Looks like euro gonna turn it into a progressive turd. Cant get a low to amplify at the right time around these parts  (MI)

1 hour ago, dmc76 said:

Your standards has really dropped 

 

crush job? It’s a 4-6” event. 
 

CMC squashed the storm 

He's more desperate for snow than a prost!tute who just got outta jail.

Gettin real old seeing iowa in almost every bullseye.

5% chance of even half those totals verifying in SEMI.