Stevo6899

Id like where i am sitting if i I were chicago and detroit as it can only go so far north. Obviously still a ways to go but if anything Id expect it to come a little south of todays euro. We've also seen the euro be over amped often this winter at this range.

Just now, Hoosier said:

Simultaneous posting is the best.

Its been awhile since we've had the chance to all be excited, especially a spread the wealth storm for chicago, N indiana and detroit as all 3 are represented well on here.

Euro looks canadianish, actually stronger and further north. Gonna be a good run. Des moines snow magnet on and in full force this winter.

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I don't disagree. For instance, December saw average snowfall due to several systems but we could not keep it on the ground more than 3 or 4 days each time. Had it not been for the fact that a couple of them were perfectly timed (Dec 16th when I had an outdoor Christmas event in a driving snow, and a perfect Christmas snowstorm),  I would have easily traded my pattern with cyclone or some of Chicago's NW burbs, taking less snowfall in exchange for a period of sustained white.  Everything is relative.  I remember multiple times back in our glory days when local snow weenies would complain if a storm busted despite the fact there was over a foot of snow on the ground. In a zzzz pattern like this a 2" solid snow cover would make a snow weenie happy lol

Very rarely do we have more than a foot of snowcover. Any weenie, local or not, would complain if you were forecasted 18-24, and only got a foot or so (GHD), especially east of the snow glacier here in SEMI. At this point, if it aint gonna snow 8+, im fine with a zzzz period like you've had. But as you said, its all relative. 3-6 events don't get me excited anymore, even in a dull winter.

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is over reaction after a few mild winters. Winters in Detroit have barely warmed the last 100 years. Yea they've warmed since the 70s...just like in the 70s one could definitely say winters are getting colder because they were. Long term....summers are warming more noticeably in the Lakes than winters. 

 

Have a safe trip. Im very confused at this last paragraph though. We've had some excellent Decembers and Januarys the past 15 years. As posted in another thread, Detroit has seen an accumulated total excess of around 102 inches of snow the past 15 winters. That comes out to 6.8 inch average more than normal the past 15 years. its not all been February lol.

Sure there's been a few decent storms in december and january but the majority of D and J's have been uneventful. Of course its all relative as you consider 2 inches on the ground for 3 plus weeks exciting. Gonna be almost 4 weeks of nothingness, assuming something delivers in the  jan 26-30 timeframe. Sunny the next 7 days and close to 80 down here in florida. I picked a good winter to skip.

28 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

amount of consensus???????????? only this board lol

The storm is on alot of the models so there is some agreement. Will it change on the next set of runs, probably. I think you need some marijuana or xanax in your life, or both.

9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Of course I'm blaming the message and not the messenger ...but this is just one more item to be added to the seemingly infinite list of commentary that defines our horrible winter climo.  The fact that we could have such a disastrous winter up to this point, and then somehow one decent snowfall in mid-winter could magically get us into a "respectable range"...it's just laughable.  And I know Hoosier often points out how there have been a significant % of winters with less than 6" up to this point.  A season like we're experiencing now should be the worst of all time...not simply in the bottom 20-25%.

Sure, it would be great to see a 4-6" spread-the-wealth snow around here over the next 10 days...and of course it's welcome and to be cherished, just like any snowfall.  But that is the minimum of what should happen in (especially) January...not some aspirational target that we have to hope for 50 things to go right in order to accomplish.  It's not November or April.

I'll again point out that ORD has still only had 2 days with low temps colder than 18F all season.  What is happening???  There "should" be at least 30 such days by now, or even more.  You can't make this up.

Another blight on our climo (as if it could get any worse) is that, when the 1991-2020 normals come out, Chicago's average January temp will probably be around 24F.  With the 1961-1990 normals, it was around 20F.  Warming up by 4F over a 30-year period is not good, when we were already right on the edge of crap 30 years ago anyway.  Whether it's UHI, climate change, or a combination of the two...we should just wave the white flag and be done with it.  Let's just face reality, speak up, and admit how horrible our winter climo is.  Everyone dances around the edges and pretends it's ok.  But it's not.  

And before people rub 2013-14 and 2014-15 in my face:  yes, those were decent winters.  But, while I truly don't expect 2013-14 or 2014-15 every winter, those two years should be closer to what should happen every winter...not some wild exceptions.  Our normal winters are horrible, and our bad winters are unfathomable.  What's the point - we need a significantly better-than-climo winter to justify our love of winter...and to justify how the media portrays it.

It's comical how we're all so hopeful/excited about the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks.   This type of pattern should be typical in winter, where...heaven forbid...wait for it...it's actually cold with some snow.  You know, winter.  It shouldn't need to be classified as a good pattern where we need 5 different indices to work out, and the TPV to be in a certain position, and the western ridge to be lined up perfectly, and not too much of a SE ridge, etc.  It should just be the default.  Where are the clippers??  A true "good" pattern is Dec 2000, Jan 1979, Feb 2015; we should save the praise for when it's actually warranted. 

It's infuriating how low our standards are.  Tired, tired, tired, tired of it.  Block me and ignore me if you want...I know it's maddening to put up with this.  I get it.  I just wish people on a winter weather forum were as infuriated as I am. Maybe some are, and just have better manners than I do...and don't pollute threads like this.  Oh well...winter is very emotional for some of us.

Once I move up north, all of this complaining will be finished and burned in a huge metaphorical bonfire of crap.  

I just think most people on here don't complain or get all upset about something they have no control over. Some winters just are duds, it happens. 

32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Good points. It's pretty much unanimous that colder air is on the way. Add in the fact that talk of this cold/pattern change happened before models even showed it, then of course once models started showing it they rushed it as always, and you have some just saying over and over it's always 10 days away, it's never going to happen, and things like that. 

 

When there's not cold air it can still snow. We had average snowfall in Detroit in December with above average snowfall in Cleveland, all pretty much with no "cold" air to be had.  The coldest days we had seemed to be products of the fresh snow that just fell. The flip side of this is when there is cold there is no guarantee of some big snow fest. However it certainly increases the chances for snow activity in the Great Lakes region and with or without a big storm we can at least have a period of actual "deep Winter" .

 

As for skeptics of the actual cold coming?  The extent of cold that we will see here is unknown, but when you are seeing unanimous support for colder than average anomalies in the dead of Winter, I think it's a safe bet the pattern is changing. Biggest place to look is western Canada. They are going from extreme warm anomalies to extreme cold anomalies in the coming change. If this somehow does not materialize you might as well just disable all weather models and start sticking your fingers out the window to see which way the wind is blowing.

Short version of that....Colder, but average cold is coming. The lack of strong, organized, cross country low pressure systems with deformation band snow this winter is surprising. Running out of winter days to cash in. No legit threats on the horizon. Better likelihood of an earthquake. 

12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.

Nobodys humping anything. People are discussing long range winter. Simply checking out the models in the long range does no harm. I think everyone knows to take them with a grain of salt. Check out the thread title. There's nothing else going on currently in the region so there's not much else to focus on. Its prob best if you stay out of the thread, and not scare away the people with actual knowledge

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Boring stretches tend to happen in most winters. They can be frustrating as heck but You know they aren't going to last forever. The Winters that you point out from 2007 to 2015 were incredible and not the norm. Think of how long a Winter season is from start to finish and how many ebbs and flows it has, that's why it kills me when people having a slow start act like it's not gonna snow at their location. Just not how the weather works. You commented earlier that you've been sledding, im jealous. My brother lives on the lakeshore in Chicago and he says he has less than an inch, but obviously you guys in the suburbs have a few inches at least.  We had several snow systems in the eastern part of the sub when the weather pattern was active and you guys missed out, now you guys got some Winter gold ahead of a boring and stagnant. There is no snow on the ground in Detroit (14.5"), Cleveland (24.3") or Pittsburgh (28.3"). But the ground haw been white for a week in Chicago (5.2") in Milwaukee (8.2").

Its a what have you done for me lately winter weenie crew on here. One day you'll understand that. The past few winters and this winter, nothing lately. We have had no real organized systems affect Michigan. Just dusters from a few secondary mostly positive tiltled low pressures that NE, E ohio has cashed in on but thats about it. Its gonna be atleast mid jan before anyone east of iowa (small part of IL just cashed in recently), west of cleveland will see any kind of respectable snowstorm, and its okay for people to be frustrated because thats more than a bad start.....I didnt realize Pittsburgh has been a snow magnet so far this winter. Good for them. They are usually sandwiched in between noreasters and panhandle hookers, colorado lows, not getting big snows, just like detroit.

29 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

It's BAAACCCKK 

Hahaha yea it went a bit further nw but by then it weakened. Looks like it dropped 2-3 inches before moving nw of detroit. Nickle, diming, and dusting to the avg. Can't wait for Josh to turd polish our winter in april saying he grades this winter an A since we reached our average, not mentioning that we didnt have one 6 inch storm, and if we do, it'll take 24 hours to get those 6 inches.

I remember the days where we had to worry about nw trends but that hasnt been the case for awhile. Rap/nam have been consistent bringing the banding to about m-59. Dtx seems to think it'll stay at the border.

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

13-14 (king of all), 14-15 (finally a 17" storm), 17-18 were good for snow on snow. You're in naples permanently or just for winter? You would have enjoyed the Christmas snow on the east side. Pattern going forward definitely has potential.

Yea my coworker back home is a huge snowlover and told me all about the christmas snow. Think my house got around 4 inches that day, although it took like 20 hours to get 4 inches. First Christmas in awhile that had decent accumulating snow. Just down here in florida for the winter. Since we suck at legit snowstorms, i figured i wouldn't miss a thing. Not one thunderstorm down here since ive been here lol. Maybe its me? Hopefully y'all can get surprised tomorrow and some banding can setup, ala feb 5, 2011. Ill always remember that storm. Mother nature felt sorry for us about GHD I going NW last minute and threw us a bone. Models had the feb 5 wave tracking down through Kentucky but somehow detroit reeled it in the last 48 hours. 

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow, a 6" glacier will be good as we start the coldest 2 months of the year. Outside a true torch, your golden. The snowcover fan in me is jealous. We've had no problem getting snow, but not since 2018 have we had a good snowcover season. What's your season total at? If i remember it was pretty much autumn snow, snowless Christmas season, and now glacier week?

Its hard enough to get a legit snowstorm in detroit. Even harder to get a snowstorm with a decent snowcover preceding it. Its seems more often than not, snowcover melts before we can add on. Ive been living in naples florida since nov 1st. Glad Ive missed all our dusters so far. Looks like it was mostly snow earlier today north of 696, where most was supposed to be a mix. Unfortunately dry air snuck in and the dryslot zoomed north quickly before more than 2 inches could accumulate. Looks like a bust in SW MI in regards to icing the models were potentially showing there. Hopefully soon we can get a forum wide, organized, strong storm to deliver heavy snow.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Watch out for a couple things

1) possibility of a thump of snow on the leading edge

2) the wave immediately following behind.  Has a shot to be a little consolation somewhere.

I noticed the canadian hinting at a small intense band of snow with some trailing energy from Friday/saturday system. Its still there, so could be a nice surprise for some areas that haven't seen much snow so far.

You know its been a rough start to winter when oklahoma has had more snow and the texas/mexico border gets a winter storm watch before you do.

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Whether or not it's enough to help me, I would hold out hope about the extreme northwest track not verifying.  It is not easy to get a track from the TX/LA border coastal region toward the Quad Cities.  Yes, it can happen, but it really has to be forced and any relatively minor change aloft could serve to deflect the system more northeast.

Yea the euro has been over-amping and been far too west with a few systems this winter. It had the storm a few weeks ago that went just west of the apps, bombing out and tracking near Chicago 120+ hrs out. If I had to guess id say a track more like todays Canadian is more likely, possibly even more SE. I cant remember the last time a secondary tracked due north and northwest in the winter. Just hoping it doesnt shiat the bed and occlude/get shunted east too quickly.

Wish i was a player in the titan/packers game tonight. Nothing like getting paid to play in heavy snow.

7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

And they aren’t even save worthy.
 

Not like these things are true clown maps spitting out 24”+

I see nothing changes. If this was a lil further west into chicagos region, the thread would have just as many, if not more, snow maps. I guess if Chicago's out the snowzone, we can only post maps that show more than 2 feet? I don't get why people can't just post freely without others putting in their smart comments, especially in this aforementioned small/mostly dead thread. It deters people from posting in the future. The activity with this current system is a setup the models tend to struggle with and for the most part haven't shown much. The canadian is giving easter lakes snow weenies life today.

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

of course its been a minute since you posted, because you only show up when the northeast gets a big storm, and its been years. I like winter. So yes, harddd pass on an east coast climate south of Boston. Last winter nyc had 2 days with snow on the ground and Philly and DC had 0. lmao. the ultimate snow weenie belongs in a lake snow belt. 

We've had this discussion many times. Only system snow gets my motor running. A true weather weenie would never take our climate over the northeast. I still dont get your obsession with crusty, yellow snowcover. I usually browse the site once a week in the winter. Nobody else will call you out on your turd polishing posts so I logged in lol. Everytime the northeast is about to get a good storm, you turd polish our awesome climate. It grinds my gears.I enjoyed these weather forums for awhile but the arrogance of the likes of the almighty weather god chicago storm and a few others turned me off. Hope all is well with you and i wish you good health josh ❤.

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its a feast or famine climate there. They are always prone to a whopper when the ingredients are just right (though this isn't going to be a 30" storm), and they haven't had one in several years. The last measurable snow in NYC? January 18th. I've tracked several storms here and had 25 days with measurable snow since Jan 18th lol.

Its been a minute since I posted on here but what a better time than to respond to a josh polishing detroit turd winter post. Its a famine climate in SEMI, where you'll be lucky to get one 10+ plus storm each winter. I think everyone on this board would give up the couple 4-8' yearly storms, perhaps go snow less 2-3 consecutive winters,  in return for that 24' plus storm. Kudos to you for still getting excited for 3-6' storm. I'd guess youre one of the few. Its okay to admit the northeast is the place to be for the ultimate snow weenie. 

Thanks for the inputs. Kind of a ignorant severe weather newbie and don't have access to advanced data I have seen used on here. Obviously didn't even know the storms were above 40,000 feet into the atmosphere. I assume it would be even more fasincating to have an aerial view of some of these tornadoes today.

Probably almost impossible for a passenger to know whether or not they are over a tornado while flying commercially (I assume planes can fly over these storms without turbulence as long as they stay at maximum altitude)but I wonder what it looks like above these storms and if pilots have the technology available to know whether or not they are flying over a tornado. Just a different aspect.

Unbelievable monster

What is that he is looking at? Possibly a car? Thats one thing I haven't noticed in any of these videos. Cars not visible and being thrown around. Maybe the tornado is so strong it destroys the car before it's able to get it off the ground. Amazing videos.