ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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06z EPS tickled a little colder for the mid-week threat...prob would be pretty nice for interior SNE up into CNE/NNE.
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Assuming the low doesn't track almost over our heads....yeah maybe.
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Sell.
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This system is so disorganized...we really needed the good ULL given no antecedent airmass present. It will end up a disjointed ugly-looking system most likely with a zone of like 2-4" of wet snow for CNE/NNE. Maybe someone lucky gets a 5-6 spot. We could still see a bit at the end down here but it's not looking like more than an inch anywhere. The "storm" just shunts east really fast.
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I'm selling the monster stemwinder solutions since this is still very fast flow. This storm could def bomb out but is going to be moving fast imho. So I'd favor the progressive solutions unless we trend the western ridge bigger....which could happen of course. But we've not been seeing that in this pattern.
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Antecedent airmass is good with that. We don't even need phasing. A slightly flatter solution would be a big front ender. There's a few ways that one could snow. Euro verbatim wasn't that good though for SNE but it wasn't far off.
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Anyone who got the goods in dec 1-3 is doing well this season. It was a big storm for a lot of folks. If you mostly whiffed on that storm, it's probably been pretty meh, but also not terrible.
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I wasn't claiming they don't. Just that 00z didn't flip back which would have invalidated the 18z run. We got 3 consecutive runs with a pretty zonked upper air look. I never really bought it, but we did get an "on-hour" cycle showing it.
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Late '90s had some bad years in certain spots. '97-'98, '98-'99, and '99-'00 could've been very bad years consecutively in the right spots. I think all 3 were putrid in southern CT. Coastal MA and RI did ok in '98-'99 and interior elevated MA did ok in '97-'98.
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Scooter was born in like '79? I'm sure he remembers most of the 80s...esp the dreadful years which mostly started in 84-85. I was born in '81 and I remember most of the shit years in the late 1980s and the lean years actually went into the first 3 seasons of the '90s.
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Well what about the 00z run last night? That was still way south too. These current runs aren't even that north. They don't get much qpf up in NNE...actually anywhere. They are weak. The biggest difference is the obscene deep h5 that the euro had for 2-3 runs which produced a big CCB.
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April 2002 is the one you're thinking of with those multiple 90+ days. We actually ended up getting some wet snow about a week later. Didn't accumulate much though.
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It is still superior in skill to the 12z run given it is 6 hours closer.
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18z Euro is trying to come back a little bit.
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Kind of a weakening clipper/IVT deal.
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Most of the interior has probably already had their biggest snowstorm of the season. 15"+ (20+ in some cases) near and outside the 495 belt for pretty much all of MA and N CT on Dec 1-3. Coastline prob has their biggest still to come. As for this threat, I still say hope for 1-3" and considers that a win given that guidance had powderfreak pond skimming 48-60 hours ago.
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SE MA might get more snow than anyone this run.
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Note how all the non-Euro guidance does not have a close h5 low south of SNE. 06z Euro had it closed off multiple times. Thats why the other models suck for snow down here and have this stripe of advisory snow to maybe low end warning for CNE instead.
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I'm always leery of being on the ass-end of these redevelopers. I want to be northeast. I like where ray is over to the seacoast of NH. The rest of SNE might be great too but I'm hedging on the north bump.
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H5 is more impressive this run to our south. Several contours closed off.
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GFS trended south considerably at 06z...though your area has seen snow on the GFS for several runs in a row now. But people like dendrite and even down to ASH and adjacent NE MA saw plowable snowfall on the latest run.
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So far... NAM was very disjointed...not much CCB but had a swath of moderate snow for CNE and NNE. ICON looked like it trended weaker and south of 18z. Moderate snows for a chunk of SNE RGEM clown range jacked SNE with low end warning snows GFS trended south from 18z but not a lot. Good looking CCB though for NNE...esp Maine and NH. GGEM so far south it whiffs SNE except maybe a little bit in far southern areas.
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NAM looks like ka-ka. It's okay in a 20-30 mile wide stripe from like RUT to dendrite to IZG or so...but overall pretty disjointed...never gets a good CCB cranking.
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Agreed. Noose is starting to tighten for the NNE/CNE crew. You're posting this while dryslot and dendrite are pulling out the old "it's an offhour run so it's probably a blip" reasoning...pretty soon you'll be huddling around the GFS/SREF/RPM group. We know the drill.
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Euro is definitely a big solution for SNE. It is still dumping at 90h when the run ends.
