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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I'm not disputing your forecast....I think you may get warning snows....I was just curious why you all of the sudden do not think the NAM is valid there....esp since for CT, it has a little more support now. Sounds like you answered the question already, but aside from being out of the RAP range, those things were all true yesterday and the day before too.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Nope....where did I pimp it? Link me the post. However, for your 'hood, RGEM and now the 18z GFS are not giving you warning snows (well 18z GFS is really close, you're on the line). So it's not just the NAM there.
  3. ORH_wxman
    You definitely tossed the NAM this storm after pimping it for the last 2 days.
  4. ORH_wxman
    19z HRRR is going colder than 18z too...not an easy forecast down there.
  5. ORH_wxman
    The mesos look like they try and temporarily stall the sleet line just south of the pike or near the RI/MA border for a couple hours near 14z-15z. If that happens, that's how we'd pick up the 8-12" amounts I think...versus more like 6-8".
  6. ORH_wxman
    Here's 15z tomorrow....when you see those wind flags going from 60 knots (even 70 shows up there) out of the SSW and turning to 20 knots out of the SE like that over BOS....that's what we mean by a "bent back WF" in the midlevels. You usually want to see that to get 1-2" per hour on the front end thumps.
  7. ORH_wxman
    60 knots about to slam into the south coast.
  8. ORH_wxman
    18z tickled a little colder...starting to narrow the goal posts a bit more.
  9. ORH_wxman
    18z HRRR coming in a tick colder through 12h. Would help out the S CT peeps.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I could see the Euro solution verifying with just one more tick north....Euro still has warning snows from HFD to PVD and my guess is that nudges just a bit more north.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah....that thump is really good here. Most of our snow is from 4am to 10am....so it's important that it slams during that time before we dryslot.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yes, I think this is actually a pretty good map. I might bring the "uncertain" dotted line up into the BOS-ORH zone too, but that's nitpicking
  13. ORH_wxman
    Well you chose the 24h sounding....at 12z tomorrow. Most guidance has you pinging by then so the GFS is cold. Here's the 3km NAM sounding at 2am for you....notice how its marginal and perhaps could be sleet: Now here's the sounding 2 hour later at 4am....notice how it has cooled a bit as the lift in the DGZ looks much stronger and the precip gets heavier
  14. ORH_wxman
    You guys in SW CT might start as straight sleet but then flip to moderate/heavy snow for a few hours as the lift deepens and cools the marginal warm layer, before it finally gets overwhelmed by WAA.
  15. ORH_wxman
    No it won't mix that much there....it might ping as the precip starts getting lighter near midday, but the damage is done by then....decent chance you don't mix at all.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Looked awesome for pike up to S NH....I'm expecting to ping though even though GFS says it stays south. But just need to hold off the pingers until about 15z and we're locked for solid warning snows.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the ensmebles have a bit of reload....so for a few days, the cold in Canada looks a bit drained and gives the impression that winter threats are over. But once the reload happens....you can see how Canada cold reloads too....see animation below on the T850 anomalies....I started the loop at 192 hours when Canada is kind of drained of big cold and watch how it reloads:
  18. ORH_wxman
    FV3 is garbage....useless in this setup until they fix its bad cold bias.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Almost dead nuts with 06z. Might have been like 4 miles north, lol
  20. ORH_wxman
    You never had a shot down there.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah, I've been saying that zone for days? Lol....not sure why you are making it sound like I was previously disagreeing with you.
  22. ORH_wxman
    They will occur where the QS banding starts slowing down and sliding east....wherever that occurs is where the 12"+ amounts happens. Best guess is S VT to S NH...but it could be into N MA too.
  23. ORH_wxman
    It is still tracking the vort north of the Euro and some other guidance....the 12z run is tracking it over northern Lake Ontario. While others are more like BUF to ROC . It's not a massive difference but that 25-30 miles matters when we're talking about areas that are flirting with the sleet line.
  24. ORH_wxman
    We didn't get more snow along the pike than 06z because the QPF was pretty weak sauce this run compared to previous. QPF is under an inch for us through 21z tomorrow on the 12z run.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Def colder than 06z though...06z gave almost no snow south of HFD, now the 12z gives advisory snows down there.
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