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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I don’t think that is an elevation gradient on the herpes…it’s where the 925 layer warmed enough. ORH airpor and adjacent Paxton (1200+ feet) are pretty high in elevation and they both get porked that run.
  2. ORH_wxman
    The cluelessness of the models for tomorrow morning is going to be fun. Hopefully it breaks right for most. It's too bad that IVT is probably real....really kept this from being a higher end storm for a much larger area. Still hoping it comes in a little weaker which could make a big difference vs trending even stronger.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it's probably the worst spot you can pick....maybe Bennington is worse on the other side of the mountains in the nor easter, but both are awful in this type of storm.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Ray with the local jackpot on the 3k
  5. ORH_wxman
    Even Kuchera map is trying to give you like 10" in 6 hours, lol
  6. ORH_wxman
    18z NAM is a furnace at 925 tonight....no snow even in N ORH county until prob 09z.
  7. ORH_wxman
    I'll be really interested in seeing how the R/S line responds to heavier precip later. A lot of these models have a very good cross hair sig over the interior with marginal BL overnight....typically, if you're trying to overcome a marginal BL, you want to see big lift in the DGZ which will make latent cooling more efficient as those dendrites fall into the above freezing BL. It won't make a difference if you're like +3C at 925, but in those areas that are around 1C, that's where things can bust.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Until 00z, and then until 06z.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Actually retros into Hubbdave, lol These hi res mesos are pretty much useless after 6 hours....we can't even trust the Euro right now at 24h.
  10. ORH_wxman
    That map doesn't look good for N middlesex and western Essex county.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I'd like to see just another half tick S and weaker with the IVT, and then I'd be very confident in widespread 8-12"
  12. ORH_wxman
    IF we can reduce that IVT just a shade more, I feel like we'll get a non-inear response to the snow in areas right on the edge....we're talking about 1C or so for many areas around 495 and down into N CT near Kevin.
  13. ORH_wxman
    That was a pounding for eastern areas from like midday through mid evening tomorrow.
  14. ORH_wxman
    RPM model....that was always a fun one.
  15. ORH_wxman
    16z RAP was the first run that trended a bit colder at 925....still warmer than most guidance given the trend of the past several runs...it will take several more colder trends to reverse the warmer ones from earlier this morning. But we'll see if it can cool a bit because that makes a huge difference over the elevated interior overnight tonight.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully it's playing into its overamped bias beyond 9 hours. But I've noticed the trend on every HRRR/RAP run is to be stronger with the IVT low and flood more and more BL warmth into SNE. That will quickly end any top end snowfall forecasts if that trend is real.
  17. ORH_wxman
    GFS gone wild tomorrow morning.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Stay in Gardiner MA. I think there's a super 8 right off Rt 2 there around 1200 feet
  19. ORH_wxman
    ORH nuke on Reggie
  20. ORH_wxman
    Lol, 3k NAM went insane over eastern areas tomorrow....I think there's a bit of chasing with that sfc low position....clearly the best dynamics are well southwest of it.
  21. ORH_wxman
    It was obvious early on that it was going to get its act together a bit earlier....which is what helps with all the conveyors maturing quicker and giving a monster CCB to a lot of SNE.
  22. ORH_wxman
    NAM is going to be more consolidated it looks like
  23. ORH_wxman
    HRRR retros the low back to ASH and brings pellets all the way back into central NH to the north of it.
  24. ORH_wxman
    That front end is cooling a bit on HRRR....crushes high terrain even down to Kevin
  25. ORH_wxman
    Euro has those dual lows extremely far apart. That will produce an outcome like that if that’s actually real.
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