baltosquid

Flakes have shrunk a bit around Patterson Park but still coming down at a good rate. If it gets any colder or the snow gets heavier, probably back to the big flakes.

Medium-large flakes, moderate rates right now around Patterson Park. Been picking up pretty steadily. No wind. Just straight, slow falling flakes. Very pleasant

GFSv16 jackpots DC in wave 1. Thin horizontal strip of 0.5-0.6 QPF.

GFS is drier but nowhere near as dry as the Euro still. Wave 2 more north than other guidance.

Trend north on HRRR for wave 1 approach has been real this evening.

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

ICON looks good for wave 2

Doesn't have the crazy QPF that put down a wide swath of 1+ inches, but since that was almost certainly not going to happen anyway, yeah a pretty good run. 0.5-0.7 QPF for most of the subforum after the second wave.

Whole thing.

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Am I looking at the RGEM right? Can’t be that wet

Definitely sticking to its 18z guns. Surprised the NAM went its way and not the other way around for these 00z runs.

One thing is for sure, the euro did not pick up an ally in the NAM. Also, on 3km, 2nd wave through 48 isn't as expansive with precip even if the low is a bit north.

2nd wave didn't quite touch Baltimore with precip at 18z, doing so this run. But the bigger change by far this run was wave 1; wave 2 looks like it will be very similar, only a little bit north.

3km probably isn't gonna be as crazy as the 12km but still a marked improvement.

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Hopefully this isn’t the case of the NAM having that one run that’s just too juiced close in. But that’s at least encouraging for Baltimore. Stays all snow up here at least 

Yeah important to remember that the NAM was holding on to a better storm for us just this past weekend for longer than other models.

Huge bump in QPF for the first wave so far, but also lots of mixing/sleet at DC latitudes and rain further south.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

It isn’t right yet

Yes, just saying if it ends up right, I would give it the win since it was consistently trending the right way all the way through at a much greater pace than the rest of the models. Fingers crossed it loses. I want to crown the UKMET! God Save the Queen!

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a limit to how far south the cold can get given the latitude at which the wave is crossing at.  The cold can't penetrate south of the actual wave since that will ride the boundary...and to press the wave south...force it to sink, at that point there is so much suppression you are squashing it and that is what is happening now.  

Was thinking about this earlier. How often is it that a weak wave gets pressed so intensely and manages to produce? Models for a while wanted to say you could just move the whole event south no biggie, just changes who jackpots. But in reality a weak wave getting this rough treatment from the north isn't going to just move south. It's going to die. 

1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said:

I don't think the euro gets a win even if the final result is like 18z. Can't have these big of changes this close in and get a "win"

I'd give it the win on the basis of it was the only model trending south and dry so determinedly before its big digital rug pull at 18z while the others either trended a bit north today, didn't lose nearly as much moisture, or held pretty steady. 

If the euro is right about this, huge win for it. If it's wrong, yikes. Way off in its own world. Not quite RGEM 30 inches for Baltimore level for our Jan-Feb storm, but it's making a huge claim here.

LWX really seems to be bearish on the Euro's take. Seems like they're mostly blending the GFS, UKMET and CMC for this one, with a bias towards the GFS.

Precip wise, very similar maximum amounts across MD to the 12z run. But the wave 2 precip looks broader and helps to give some previously fringed areas in the north some more insurance from missing out on the best of wave 1.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok who wants to jump on the RGEM train again?

Totally didn't give Baltimore 30 inches shortly before our 31st-33rd storm. Nope. Didn't happen. Slanderous. 

In all seriousness though, my optimistic side tells me there's at least a little something to this. Like I said earlier, NAM has shifted north the past 24 hours in some respects, it's just gotten drier too. HRRR at 18z went north and so did the ICON, and now the RGEM. HRRR looks like north but no more or less dry, while the ICON and RGEM are more what could happen if it goes north and reclaims some of that QPF we've been losing. GFS run will be very interesting.

Just now, jayyy said:

Have an image? I’m stuck working in the midst of the organized chaos that is the Apple store! Thx in advance!

Snowfan's got you on the QPF, here's the kuchera and 10:1

Almost no one in the subforum below 0.4 QPF on the RGEM. Can only see a couple spots in the MD panhandle and one in WV.

RGEM already with over a half inch of QPF by 42 for @WxUSAF 

FWIW, HRRR came north with the best QPF at 18z for wave 1. A tenth better for pretty much all of MD and more so for DC.

Edit: Eastern shore does much worse though. Nevermind, was contaminated with older QPF. Eastern shore is mostly the same.

Silver lining is that wave 2 is still 48+ hours away. NAM jackpotted Richmond 12 hours ago and North Carolina 12 hours before that, now the best strip of snow is halfway between Richmond and DC and broader, too. I don't consider there to be a good chance of this, but it could come north/get a bit less fringy with QPF in 48 hours. Just gotta keep watching.