baltosquid

Euro is a decent thump of 2-4 inches 10:1 then ice, then dry slot. Maybe if it's as cold as advertised for that thump, ratios could improve.

CMC was a tick NW but pretty much the same. Also drier; gotta be in the heavy bands to get much.

So we're riding the NAM and Euro it seems. And the HRDPS I suppose. Really need the euro at 12z to hold firm with its call; more ticks lower on QPF would have us knocking on slush territory. I forget who said it, but one of the mets mentioned the 12k NAM and 3k NAM difference a day or so ago was worth paying attention to, as the 12k was much less amped and could signify something to watch since the 3k likes to overamp. Looking like a great call.

So this is late, but seeing as the 12z should start rolling in soon, here's the 00z href snowfall mean and max to compare. I only link the max to demonstrate the dueling ideas of where the heaviest snow falls; do not think you're going to get those totals. You've got one camp rushing through Eastern Shore/DE and another going right along I-95. It'll be interesting to see how that pair of strips evolves in the 12z run. I'm also not sure what ratio this uses, but probably just 10:1, so adjust down mentally as needed.

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

It’s 1 inch QPF..I don’t think it can get much more juiced than that in basically a 6-8 hour period 

Just saw the QPF, definitely one of the more confusing runs I've seen. It looked anemic for a while and then it just decides to drop a ball of moisture right over central MD and the eastern shore. I retract my complaint!

Still in business then. Hopefully juices up a bit more though, don't think there's as good a chance of death banding in there if this verifies. Wonder how the nest will compare.

Much less precipitation, that shield needs to juice up in the next few panels...

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Hopefully it went too far NW

Yeah I'm not putting much stock into the actual amount it moved NW, just that it did at all. That would be heartbreaking...

SREF has its issues as always, but from a trend point of view, it was further NW at 21z. Precursor to a NAM move?

And here's what NASA has to say about things (0z, 12z not out yet, I have no idea about any characteristics of this model whatsoever, just saw Levi from TT talking about its v2 or something on twitter recently)

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I'm gonna be point blank with you that that presentation is one hell of a look for the HREF at range. 

Perhaps even more so than shown given the outlier the HRRR is throwing into the mean:

HREF mean. Does not capture the whole event; only through 12z Sunday.

RGEM with a big step towards NAM, though still too far off the coast and weak to get to something more like the NAM. But it's right trend.

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Keep it there till 12 hours before for one final 30 mile bump nw 

I'd lock that in and take 6-8 in a heartbeat, condolences to SE folks.

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Looks like we hit around 40 or low 40s (in and around DC area, at least) Sunday afternoon after the precip ends, then it cools off quickly beginning in the evening into the mid-20s by middle of the night (for what that's worth out at 84h range).

Sounds like a recipe for some nasty ice.

06z EPS has two much more coherent clusters of lows next weekend. One is right on the coast, with individual lows showing up in the Delaware bay and down to NC/VA. The other cluster is around Lake Erie by OH and MI.

Some pretty windy snow out there. Not the heaviest I've seen but enough that it could accumulate another inch or so if it stuck around long enough.

Though I didn't get the gaudy totals I was hoping for around here, I'm very pleased with the longevity of the snow. Really feels nice to look out the window multiple days in a row and see flakes. 

GFS seems to keep trending more suppressed, progressive with next weekend's system. Maybe we can get something out of this? Could be one of those rain-to-snow frontal couple inch deals. 50/50 also sliding into place each run perhaps?

CMC also puts the CCB in Eastern Pa/Northwestern NJ. But still looking at 6 inches in DC, 10 in Baltimore, maybe foot totals going up to the PA border in kuchera. Not as good of a run if you're on the Eastern shore. Not a super sharp fringe, but you definitely want to be as far north as you can be.

Will singing Oh, Canada improve the chances its models are correct?

Just now, nj2va said:

Keep in mind the TT maps only show rain and snow for ICON.  Green on TT can also been sleet/freezing rain.

Ah good info, thank you. On weathermodels it looks a lot better in snowfall totals but that's 10:1.

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

In my opinion this is the best run of the Icon for our area yet. Oddly the snow maps aren’t all that impressive. 

Seems like it's got thermal issues, gets pretty much everyone in MD not in the Appalachians into rain for a long period of time.

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol

Just how I like it. Very interesting how the Canadian models have been gung ho about this all of a sudden; wish it were easy to tell why they went this direction the past few runs under the hood. Not gonna hug it because it's literally too perfect, but I hope it has the better of the NAM this time around and we can reach those foot totals. But I'll take 6 if that's all we get. REally interested in where the euro puts the CCB; it's been much more optimistic than the NAM but not as much as the RGEM/GGEM. 

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Wild. Baltimore city is awfully close to that. 1+ QPF in 6 hours is wild 

Wouldn't it be hilarious if the bay jackpots... but we'd still be doing quite well here regardless.

No need for a super in depth response since that would be best left to its own thread, but do people more in the know think the huge issues with GFS thermals are to some extent brough about by certain overcorrections from its experimental days when the FV3 was cranking out nonsensical cold solutions storm after storm?