baltosquid

12km, so not as useful as the incoming 3km, but the run was better. Low is still too far NW but not running up the bay like in 06z. Snow totals still bad. Looks like mostly sleet in the totals on tropical tidbits. But a tick in the right direction, even for a less useful model is nice.

9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast.

Yeah also looks maybe a bit cooler at 850 but a tad warmer at the surface. If it makes any noticeable SE tick I'll be feeling much better though, really just want to see the path. Anything to suggest the Euro and CMC will cave to the GFS...

00z hugs Delmarva far tighter than 18z. Ensembles maybe hinted at his before with a lot of members clustered around there while the operational took a straighter path. I'm kind of concerned that the euro ensembles generally have the tightest cluster around that tucking path while the out-to-sea members are more scattered, even if there are more of those ones overall. But even with this run, I get 6 to 8 or so inches on the snow depth map which is probably the most since March 2018 for me.

Anyone more knowledgeable got an explanation of the tucking behavior and what would stop it? Silver linings?

CMC is strange, very strong but one of the most pronounced snow-rain cutoffs yet. It really wants to tuck the storm into Ocean City/Delaware. I'm skeptical of that. Very different track to the GFS. Give me the GFS track and CMC rates, please!

Track is better but the precipitation rates aren't there this time. Not too worried about that run. Track worried me more earlier personally, no deterioration on that for 00z, perhaps improvements. Hopefully we can get the rates back.

EPS mean seems a bit of a weaker storm and a tick south, stronger 50/50 and slightly stronger high pressure behind it. Probably good I think.

Seems like the Euro ensembles look a bit warmer at 850 than the operational, and the inverse is true for the GFS. Which means I'll still be hanging on each and every run throughout the day. Just gotta hope the ticks are in the right direction.

EPS a bit worse but it’s also easy to see how battered we’ve been for a while now  

We’ve got the CMC, GFS and Euro Ops with some pretty great results for the usual suspects and the I95 corridor; the UKMET is less bullish but still a good result for a lot of us in Dec. Yet you’d think from the discussion on the EPS we’re set up for a soul crushing bust even though it still gives some of us more snow than all last year lol. One run at a time, best models for us in a long long time!

Depressing that the only "saving grace" at this point is the CFS, and that's not until March so... ouch.

It's hard to be excited about the GFS being close (but further than it was at 06z) while the ECMWF is 300 miles too far north. Still 5+ days out but with precious little ensemble support, oof.

A small handful of the upside solutions on the 00z ens runs for the euro were pretty powerful. It’s definitely a good sign that 12z is trending to a stronger shortwave when coupled with that BUT at 5 days out let’s not forget what happened to that thump we were tracking a few weeks ago from 5 days out...

Icon looks decent, pretty much all snow for Baltimore but rates are not terribly impressive. Still, considering how reluctant the Icon is to show anything good for us I’m cautiously optimistic. Very scientific, I know!

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

What is Dr. No doing?????

I am ready to get hurt again.

Edit: My bet is on gradual deterioration into a frontal look by the start of the week that allegedly should give us rain to snow, but the snow doesn’t really materialize. That’s a classic setup here, right?

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@psuhoffman mentioned earlier about the mid level winds direction and u can clearly see the trajectory is much better this run .

12k nam

 

Been watching this, certainly not the quality look we were getting earlier in the week but things have been trending flatter/more flow up front pretty consistently. Here's the euro and nam over the past 48 hours.

Once again there’s a post-mix/sleet/ice period of snow for an hour or two on the euro for 12z, a bit better/wider area looking than 06z. So I guess mid levels are getting better temps there as the storm passes through. Give me trends that way the rest of the day please, only needs to get a bit better to get I95 in central/NE MD a short second bit of snow.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Gfs is actually pretty thumpy. Especially for C and NE MD. 

Yeah, far cry from what we saw at the beginning of the week but the precip gets a bit more out front and covers the region more fully. Still mostly not snow but better than nothing.

Also, 06z Euro showed a brief transition back to snow for NW MD after the mix/sleet/freezing precipitation. Maybe if we can get cold enough we can trend more that way and recover some more snowfall from the other precip types later on in the event. Probably won’t help in Baltimore but there aren’t many other things giving me hope!

13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

the 12z NAM clown map is hilarious in relation to what the actual model shows lol

It’s more reasonable on the snow depth change map. About 1-3 inches. 10-1 has a lot of other freezing precipitation included so it looks nuts. Still an optimistic look, though.

FWIW I think last week’s event looked to be trending pretty terribly at around this many hours out but had a bit of a recovery getting closer. Or maybe (probably) I’m just grasping at straws. What I wouldn’t give for a storm that gets trumpeted by the euro first, then collects the other models, rather than the other way around....

Snowfall looked nice all throughout with some heavier looking flakes just in the past half hour but it's had a lot of trouble accumulating around Patterson Park. Seems nearly finished, flakes are getting smaller again. Wish there'd been enough to at least clean cover the grass and give the trees some white branches but it was nice to at least watch it fall. Half an inch probably.

Snowing pretty good in Upper Fells by Patterson Park. Transitioned about 15-20 minutes ago. Grass is starting to go white in spots; hopefully we can crack an inch on some of the easier surfaces.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

HDRPS

Helping Realize Dreams of Prolific Snow

12z GFS trending well I think... not as much warm air around to ruin things, cold air penetrating deeper. Storm track getting there. Not a hit yet but surprisingly encouraging.

It’s a long shot but hey, the GEFS and EPS have been trending in the right direction I guess  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There’s not many hits in the 00z euro members, though there’s still a small handful. Not looking great but given what happened with this week’s storm I think it’s fair to not totally give up yet. FWIW, the 12km NAM sees a cold front as well now that we’re in that range.

Funny, euro finally caved to the GFS cold front solution and now the GFS trends away from it in the next two runs  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯