baltosquid

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I'm gonna be point blank with you that that presentation is one hell of a look for the HREF at range. 

Perhaps even more so than shown given the outlier the HRRR is throwing into the mean:

HREF mean. Does not capture the whole event; only through 12z Sunday.

RGEM with a big step towards NAM, though still too far off the coast and weak to get to something more like the NAM. But it's right trend.

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Keep it there till 12 hours before for one final 30 mile bump nw 

I'd lock that in and take 6-8 in a heartbeat, condolences to SE folks.

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Looks like we hit around 40 or low 40s (in and around DC area, at least) Sunday afternoon after the precip ends, then it cools off quickly beginning in the evening into the mid-20s by middle of the night (for what that's worth out at 84h range).

Sounds like a recipe for some nasty ice.

06z EPS has two much more coherent clusters of lows next weekend. One is right on the coast, with individual lows showing up in the Delaware bay and down to NC/VA. The other cluster is around Lake Erie by OH and MI.

Some pretty windy snow out there. Not the heaviest I've seen but enough that it could accumulate another inch or so if it stuck around long enough.

Though I didn't get the gaudy totals I was hoping for around here, I'm very pleased with the longevity of the snow. Really feels nice to look out the window multiple days in a row and see flakes. 

GFS seems to keep trending more suppressed, progressive with next weekend's system. Maybe we can get something out of this? Could be one of those rain-to-snow frontal couple inch deals. 50/50 also sliding into place each run perhaps?

CMC also puts the CCB in Eastern Pa/Northwestern NJ. But still looking at 6 inches in DC, 10 in Baltimore, maybe foot totals going up to the PA border in kuchera. Not as good of a run if you're on the Eastern shore. Not a super sharp fringe, but you definitely want to be as far north as you can be.

Will singing Oh, Canada improve the chances its models are correct?

Just now, nj2va said:

Keep in mind the TT maps only show rain and snow for ICON.  Green on TT can also been sleet/freezing rain.

Ah good info, thank you. On weathermodels it looks a lot better in snowfall totals but that's 10:1.

1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

In my opinion this is the best run of the Icon for our area yet. Oddly the snow maps aren’t all that impressive. 

Seems like it's got thermal issues, gets pretty much everyone in MD not in the Appalachians into rain for a long period of time.

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Rgem destroys Baltimore, wiped off the map lol

Just how I like it. Very interesting how the Canadian models have been gung ho about this all of a sudden; wish it were easy to tell why they went this direction the past few runs under the hood. Not gonna hug it because it's literally too perfect, but I hope it has the better of the NAM this time around and we can reach those foot totals. But I'll take 6 if that's all we get. REally interested in where the euro puts the CCB; it's been much more optimistic than the NAM but not as much as the RGEM/GGEM. 

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Wild. Baltimore city is awfully close to that. 1+ QPF in 6 hours is wild 

Wouldn't it be hilarious if the bay jackpots... but we'd still be doing quite well here regardless.

No need for a super in depth response since that would be best left to its own thread, but do people more in the know think the huge issues with GFS thermals are to some extent brough about by certain overcorrections from its experimental days when the FV3 was cranking out nonsensical cold solutions storm after storm?

FWIW, the densest cluster of lows in the EPS members seems to be the ones that don't escape, but my eye is poorly trained.

Little less totals than 00z but it looks way less likely I'd get fringed due to temps with this run so honestly I prefer it this way. Especially when we're talking a difference of 2-3 inches in a storm with over a foot of now to give either way as depicted.

More amped on the euro through 60. Too amped?

Just look at the trend of 24hr precipitation on the 12z GEFS over the past few runs. Very telling of a continuing trend towards the euro/the rest of the models. Comma shape setting up closer and closer to just how we want it.

Hard to tell in the swarm, but seems like the tuck and stall off the coast is well liked by the 18z EPS maybe?

Not the kind of perfect run we saw on the euro but some aspects seem better. Seems like the GFS is more likely to cave to the euro rn.

162... still dumping... how far to a BECS?

Looks like an all snow affair for 95 right now... but what will the back end look like?

So far, it seems like the GFS is the only model that wants to get rid of the confluence early. Even at the tail end of the long meso runs (NAM 12 and RGEM) the GFS is already starting to pull away to the east. It would be a great show of force for the model if it does indeed verify with a faster exit, but right now it's pretty much alone it appears.

Edit: FWIW, NAVGEM looks pretty good too but not really one of the models to take cues from.

Ukie looks nice, honestly could be a bit TOO far south/off the coast in some respects. Wouldn't be as good as 00z Euro (though can't say for certain since the run ends too soon to really get a sense of the kind of coastal it may or may not have) but not bad.