Torch Tiger

If anything it'll trend weak and north, models (non-mesos) love blowing up those meso lows in coarse grids. I could be wrong

we everywhere

you'll see 1" Monday AM

lfg

Looks like a typical seasonal progression going forward- EOM into July could be a roaster.

jakob mcmillin live

so far

chaser TornadoTRX was hit by it.

large unwarned tornado in IL

Not a bad 24-hour lead for our region Ahead of this early activity, a warm front will push north-northeastward across Indiana/Ohio. New severe storm development, perhaps MCV-influenced and transitioning out of the remnant activity and/or forming near the warm front, is possible across Indiana into Ohio. Shear profiles will be excessive, with tornado risk only conditional on minimal instability being present. The result may be a isolated tornadic supercells. The warm frontal position will need to be monitored northward toward the Indiana/Michigan border vicinity. Even if instability is elevated into Michigan, extreme shear and lift may still yield damaging winds and even a tornado risk.

I wasn't comparing them like that-lol but both seem to be missing steep ml llase rates, and that is usually the one key missing ingredient in sne setups that fail.

I haven't given up on Thursday - 0z mesos look okay wrt potential

Yes, one of the most memorable ever, really. tremendous shear - weak/mid cape - terrible ml lapse rates/ml cape. SPC was at least a moderate hatch if not high risk? it was wild. Very little happened

funny because the very next year produced some of the highest end severe we've seen in a century ofc largely EML-driven

6/6/2010 ...forever gun-shy