Ruin

30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This will get the grass growing assuming we get decent rain on Sat...all suites have a warm spell next week after this weekend's quick chill but the CMC is going for two days in the 80's for the LSV before another cold spell sets in the following weekend that sets up the "just after Easter Nor'easter".    More immediately, high wind watch issued for @MAG5035 land. 

 

 

 

from what i remember it takes a good week for grass to grow once temps hit 60 but the over night lows cant go into the 30s or the grass will just not wanna get out of its dormant stage and you need a good bit of rain in that week to get things started. even tho we had temps in the 70s a few times they were short lived why grass hasnt started to grow yet.

I still see some people thinking we may have 1 more chance of snow lol. its over its damn spring we all got screwed  lets hope for a cooler then normal summer cause Im not looking forward to 90s 

On 3/17/2023 at 11:36 AM, Bubbler86 said:

@Ruin you said on the other thread:

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the below period time was said to be the 16th on  and was said to be much below normal I owuldnt call 50 when the average high is 52 chilly the coldest day we had was 48. for many of us it was warmer then forecasted for a few days and for me I had 2 days below normal the rest were average and even had 2 days above 

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Below are MDT's numbers for the period 3/10-3/15.  All of them below normal, and two days where it did not reach 40.  Maybe you were speaking about earlier in March?  

 

 

it was for me my dad is in middletown but with that said it was said to be much below normal this isnt much below normal. also the heart of the so cold was after the 17 looking it now we are forecasted to be way above upper 50s to upper 60s. so by the end of the month we will be skewed a tad above normal or near normal. Much below normal is like 10 degree's I dont see one date on that reference that shows that. thats slightly below normal. btw im not throwing shade at any of you guys here. im throwing shade to temp guidance showing once thing and my local weather not showing the same thing. but then had people say the local guys have to catch up tp to the temp outlook thats a nope never had to cause it didnt happen

2 hours ago, Chris78 said:

We just finished a stretch of 6 days in a row of below normal highs. With a few of those days being down right cold for mid March. 

Not sure what area your quoting temps for but  the models correctly forecasted a below normal period.

Now they missed on other key areas like continued burying of Energy along the west coast that hampered any possibility of seeing snow.

This has been a bias all winter for the models of underestimating the trough in the west in the long range.

the below period time was said to be the 16th on  and was said to be much below normal I owuldnt call 50 when the average high is 52 chilly the coldest day we had was 48. for many of us it was warmer then forecasted for a few days and for me I had 2 days below normal the rest were average and even had 2 days above 

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

 

Where do I sign?

lol yeah ill take it like I was trying to say for a week plus. these bs signs of cold air the temp guidance was talking about was flat out wrong. maybe 2 days of slightly below average then mostly at or above.

16 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You have nothing positive to add in our own thread, for christ's sake will you please stop trolling and keep your shit posts up in PA where they don't belong either? 

 

Sorry southern friends...

im being realistic no one else wants to say it like I said before I want snow but latching onto models 10 days out showing a snow storm over and over only for that model to trend more and more away from a storm.  Then latch onto the next one showing another storm is kind of crazy dont get me wrong I like the chase as the next person but some years it isnt meant to be  

on to next winter 

all this talk about below normal temps looking into the weekend next week looks normal to me 

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z GFS still likes the idea of 1 to 2 inches of snow for parts of the LSV & the rest of the Susquehanna Valley.

I remember in years past we would be said to get snow then trended totally away but then not forecasted we got snow and heavy snow. boy how I wish we could get a surprise snow out of this odd too that it will be close to the bench mark but hardly any precip shield back to our area.

Oh damn I thought they were saying it was suppose to be mostly rain after the bump of snow cause the new atmospheric river was warmer this time 

56 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

well then my local news station was wrong thats on them and thats the case they are showing lower 50s all the way up to mid 60s one day so what happened to the cold?

50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I challenged you to find something positive to share. Obviously that was too much to ask. If you can't find it in yourself to be positive, at least provide accurate information.

ok positive to share it will now be 65 a day next week you  can go for a nice drive 

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Actually no your average high temperature on March 17 is 51.3 so upper 40s is below normal.

Actually saw the average high temps on local weather 

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The models show colder temperatures. Could they be wrong?  Sure.   The temps are forecast to be warmer for 2-3 days due to a low cutting to our west.  Over this winter, LSV actual temps have pretty consistently been going above models temps. 

normally when temp guidance shows warmer or cold the local forecast normally almost follows that fore forecasts. can you give a explanation why they dont? Ive been watching temps on the 7 day the last 6 days and they keep showing at normal or above and then they did a about face this morning the same time frame yesterday was mid 40s now they are mid 50s. tho on the temp guidance its trying to push 30s into the area.

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

After that cutter you referenced above, it looks quite cold as of now. Fair to question anything on the longer range though. 

Actually no on my forecast it still says it'll be in the upper 40s after the 17th 18th time frame our normal high is 45 that's still a few degrees above normal and even if the temperature will be colder shortly after they show that forecast date it was supposed to be the 14th and 15 I got colder before that it was a 10th now it's the 16th through 18th to see what's happening the cold air is getting pushed further and further back and then we're sitting here March 25th all the cold weather is a couple days away and it's got to be April

28 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Looks like it's going to get into the 60's on the 16th and 17th. I was expecting it to be a lot colder this month but honestly it isn't really looking that different than normal now besides the next couple days being 5-10 below normal

Funny thing about it is you bring this to someone's attention and either they glaze over the facts they claim something else or they say you're just being a weather weenie and yet fail to actually cast blame on everyone calling for code or snow and it never happens. I love snow as much as you guys do but sometimes you got to look in the mirror and realize hey you know it is in our ear models have been wrong with the cold for a couple of years they always push it back and we get like one or two days when it was supposed to be for a week or two.

So woke up just looked up weather for the next week and wouldnt you know it local weather is showing mid 50s in the heart of the so called colder then average temps. 16-18th 55 54 51 smh. cant trust models these days 

joke of a storm mostly dry 

system looks way drier on radar 

Storm looking pretty pathetic

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

How did you have access to model runs back then?

I didnt but those who poste them did on accuweather forums for many years 

32 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Don't let some of the guys her fool you , Sometimes we get into simple patterns that make the models look like they are ok, but its not the models working out its the simple pattern . Unfortunately computer models cant handle any dynamics lol.

do you think they did better before the major upgrades in the middle 2010s? it felt like it but again models felt like they were better in the 90s 

Just now, Yardstickgozinya said:

I think what you will find over time is that there are no legit weather models for this area of the US at any range, just people that cant or don't want remember yesterday.

Oh ive been into weather for a long time models are normally all shit lol 

6 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 Unfortunately making people think the next hecs is just right around the corner has become a profitable business for enough people and agency's now that the next hecs will always be 8-14 days out.

I agree but the youtubers I follow 1 former meteorologist and the second guy keeps showing the models it shows the area mod to heavy snow 10 hours and yet snow guidance suggest one accum is 0.9

10 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I would be very wary of youtube weather forecasters . They need you to click and comeback and they know who to trigger that reaction in guys like us.

true but look at accuweather link just outside my area I live just to the west about 12-15 mins across the river these days and it says for haarrisburg wont start till 5 plus they were showing legit models gfs euro etc