clskinsfan

There is so much right about this quote right here. Outside 3 or 4 days the op runs are a straight up mirage. So many of our marginal events sneak up within that 3 or 4 day timeframe that it basically means nothing to look at models beyond that point. Even earlier this season when I was all in on the incredible look that was coming within the next 10 days I got burnt. BAD.

Is it 24 or 12 dammit? I cant take the stress anymore.

The NAM says hello:

RGEM is really similar to the NAM fwiw.

NAMed

Dont know if anyone noticed or cared. But the we get NAMed for the Sun/Mon Event Oh nevermind. It appears there is a thread for that event. Who knew?

Cant smoke. I have lung disease. But this 18 yo scotch is really nice.

Meh. That is after the "bomb cyclone". Normal.

Likely or not. It is gorgeous.

Disregard. I am an idiot and was looking at the wrong thing.

What a trainwreck.

That is one heck of a cluster for this far out. Wow.

That GEFS map is pretty much textbook. Maybe not ideal placement for the HP. But Lets just get to that actual setup and I will take my chances from there.

Yep. Give us a bomb parked over Norfolk and we are dancing.

Which isnt necessarily a bad thing for all of us. Just saying.

Much better surface temps this run as well. Although that is a long ways out to worry about at this point.

Well that is looking much better than it did last week. Maybe I was ready to jump too soon.

Glad for the west coast as they obviously need the rain badly. But I am close to putting a big huge fork in this winter. Three years of Nina's is taking its toll on me. And now we have a Nina with Nino like flow. Which means PAC puke and trash air masses. Had amazing blocking early and ended up with a single week long arctic outbreak out of it. This hobby frustrates to no end.

I just want to wish a Merry Christmas to my weather weenie friends here. We are holding off our celebration for our son who is in the Navy and gets leave on the 28th. Amazing how his sister insisted on the wait. I am blessed with amazing children, grandchildren and an amazing life. I pray for all to have the same blessings. Happy holidays friends.

Interesting. I wonder if it just updated with the 12Z run? I always get them from here. It has just about all of the MJO forecasts in one place: https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

Yes. But the problem is there is really no amplitude at all showing up in the future. And phase 7 is usually the phase with the highest amplitude. 7 is also the phase that the MJO usually moves through rapidly. Again that doesnt mean it wont snow here. But it could impact the activity on the southern jet. Another thing that concerns me a little bit is usually the MJO is amped towards the end of Nina from what I understand. It is one of the indicators of an upcoming Nino. And I really dont want any part of a 4th Nina next winter. I edited my above post to "near" instead of in the COD. Thanks for the correction.

Well it doesnt appear we will be getting any help from the MJO anytime soon. Doesnt mean we wont get any snow. But I would be shocked to see anything big happen with the MJO near the COD for the foreseeable future.

That will be the squeaky snow in the morning when you walk on it. I love that kind of ultra cold snow.

After reading other peoples reports I am sitting pretty at a balmy 7 degrees.

13/-4 here. Took the trash out in a t-shirt. Bad idea. Brutal out.