clskinsfan

Just a slight difference in qpf from the two NAM's out this way. 3k says .5 total. 12K says 1.1 total. Nice consistency.

Oh man. That back end band means business though. I hate having to depend on that for a big hit though. But it is sweet out here Tomorrow evening.

I guess I will be the Deb on the HRRR. It is a quick burst and lengthy dryslot out this way. Big step back for those of us nw with the first batch. We'll see what happens after that. Back edge does flip back to snow out here though.

Just look at the radar on the Gulf Coast and look at your current temps. Now look at what is happening in TX and realize you are all going to get hit tonight and tomorrow with a high impact winter storm. Are we getting feet of snow? Nope. But we are all getting hit. We'll unless you are in Short Pump that is.

I keep a cord at all times just in case. I do a lot of backyard fire pits with the family so we use it. Wood is still the most dependable heating fuel there has ever been.

I am not really worried about it. I think we are pretty much a lock for 5 inches at this point. I am intrigued by the second part Thursday night though. The UK has that band. It is just a little too far north for us.

UK targets DC and south with the heaviest stuff as well. Those of us out west are watching our QPF dry up quick.

CMC is similar to the RGEM. But a little better with the back edge stuff on Friday morning.

Pretty massive differences out this way between the GFS and the PARA. Especially with the second part of the storm. Para is snow. GFS is ice.

GFS sticks with the 2 part idea. More ice with the second part this run. Goes through Friday morning though.

Thanks Scraff. Now you got me watching TWC again. Look at those snow rates in TX right now.

Warning for my area includes very little ice. Pretty bullish with a 6-10 call. I like it. Pretty crazy when you have a ice storm in Shreveport, LA today.

Yep. Late 80's early 90's was their wheelhouse no doubt.

RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Not just DC. Would be kind of fun though you have to admit.

Man I miss TWC from the 90's. That was primetime TV then.

VA has been a free for all. Once they open up your group you log on to a website and hope you can snag a spot. I got lucky. Period. My wife still hasnt gotten hers. I will give props to the way it is being administered though. It is efficient and well run. I never waited more than 5 minutes for either shot and they are doing a fantastic job in the Winchester area handling it.

There is a ton of juice down on the Gulf coast when looking at the national radar. And it is getting juicier by the hour. The cold is in place and is the best cold we have had this entire season. I like our chances. 24/10 in the Winchester area. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif

I was just looking at the NAM hour 27 700 map. Why would it have winds streaming in from the due south out of Central VA when the prevailing winds are out of the SE? Seems weird to me?

I just feel incredibly relieved. I am still relatively young. Mid 50's. But I have lung disease. Haven't been to a bar or restaurant for a year at this point. Can't wait to get my life back.

Pfizer. It's not awful. Just chills, aches and joint soreness. Almost feels like a bad hangover without the fun last night

Second covid shot is no joke. Feel completely wiped out today. Bring on the snow!

Get a load of the CMC. Amplifies the following wace and Snows through Saturday to the east. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

The GFS is obviously jumpy with precip type. But it is in line for total QPF with the rest of guidance:

0Z Nam Cobb date: DCA: 210218/1200Z 36 05007KT 26.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210218/1300Z 37 05009KT 26.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 7:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0 210218/1400Z 38 04010KT 27.4F SNPL 1:1| 0.1|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.089 5:1| 1.3|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.26 16| 84| 0 210218/1500Z 39 06010KT 27.9F SNPL 3:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.045 5:1| 1.4|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.30 54| 46| 0 210218/1600Z 40 06007KT 27.2F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.33|| 0.00|| 0.194 3:1| 1.6|| 0.52|| 0.00|| 0.49 16| 84| 0 210218/1700Z 41 02007KT 28.3F ZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.21|| 0.07|| 0.171 3:1| 1.6|| 0.73|| 0.07|| 0.67 0| 63| 37 210218/1800Z 42 36006KT 27.8F SNOW 7:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212 4:1| 3.1|| 0.73|| 0.07|| 0.88 100| 0| 0 IAD: 210218/1100Z 35 06005KT 26.0F SNOW 15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 210218/1200Z 36 05007KT 25.8F SNOW 12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210218/1300Z 37 05008KT 25.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 11:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0 210218/1400Z 38 05009KT 25.4F SNPL 2:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.111 9:1| 4.2|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.46 45| 55| 0 210218/1500Z 39 06008KT 26.3F SNPL 6:1| 0.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.067 9:1| 4.6|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.52 77| 23| 0 210218/1600Z 40 05005KT 26.0F SNOW 8:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174 9:1| 6.0|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.70 100| 0| 0 210218/1700Z 41 36006KT 26.1F SNPL 9:1| 1.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.175 9:1| 7.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.87 80| 20| 0 210218/1800Z 42 36005KT 26.1F SNOW 5:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.201 8:1| 8.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.07 100| 0| 0 BWI: 210218/1200Z 36 05007KT 26.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210218/1300Z 37 05009KT 26.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 10:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 210218/1400Z 38 05009KT 25.8F SNPL 8:1| 1.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.121 9:1| 2.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.32 86| 14| 0 210218/1500Z 39 06010KT 27.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.090 9:1| 2.9|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.41 8| 92| 0 210218/1600Z 40 06007KT 26.9F SNOW 9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154 9:1| 4.3|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.56 100| 0| 0 210218/1700Z 41 05006KT 27.4F SNPL 1:1| 0.1|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.172 7:1| 4.5|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 0.73 14| 86| 0 210218/1800Z 42 02008KT 27.6F SNPL 10:1| 1.6|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.163 7:1| 6.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.90 80| 20| 0 MRB: 210218/1000Z 34 08006KT 24.9F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 210218/1100Z 35 08006KT 24.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 210218/1200Z 36 07008KT 24.5F SNOW 10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096 11:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210218/1300Z 37 08008KT 24.2F SNOW 13:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 11:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 210218/1400Z 38 07008KT 24.2F SNOW 14:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.228 13:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 210218/1500Z 39 06008KT 24.0F SNOW 14:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088 13:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0 210218/1600Z 40 08006KT 24.0F SNOW 10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178 12:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0 210218/1700Z 41 11004KT 24.3F SNOW 7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185 11:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96 100| 0| 0 210218/1800Z 42 10006KT 25.1F SNPL 9:1| 2.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.228 11:1| 12.7|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.19 75| 25| 0 WOO: 210218/0900Z 33 11004KT 23.6F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 210218/1000Z 34 08003KT 23.8F SNOW 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 210218/1100Z 35 06004KT 23.6F SNOW 14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.190 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0 210218/1200Z 36 06006KT 23.1F SNOW 14:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175 14:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 210218/1300Z 37 07005KT 22.5F SNOW 11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172 13:1| 8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0 210218/1400Z 38 06006KT 22.0F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 13:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79 100| 0| 0 210218/1500Z 39 06005KT 21.6F SNOW 9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 12:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0 210218/1600Z 40 05003KT 21.8F SNOW 11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147 12:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06 100| 0| 0 210218/1700Z 41 04005KT 21.5F SNPL 6:1| 1.2|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.204 11:1| 14.0|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 1.26 55| 45| 0 210218/1800Z 42 09004KT 21.8F SNPL 3:1| 1.0|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.330 9:1| 15.0|| 0.49|| 0.00|| 1.59 53| 47| 0

Somebody needs to suppress your posts.