Steve25

57 minutes ago, mappy said:

Are we believing the Euro this week? Wasn't it just last week that everyone said it was terrible? I can't keep up. 

As a weenie, I'm enjoying the Euro but in all reality my best case REALISTIC expectations around Baltimore are some snow on Friday, maybe 1-3 inches and then getting scraped by the backedge of the coastal snow Saturday. 

I have no expectation at all for anything more than 6 inches at best(if the coastal throws enough juice back here), but just knowing how these scenarios typically play out and how the setup looks I have no expectation for a crazy big outcome. 

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In a strange twist I dont know if I can chase this thing to OC if they are getting 30 inches. I cant get stuck there for a week. No chase due to too much snow. That is a new one. 

Yeah it'll be a watch the boardwalk cams for me 

1 minute ago, Leaking Gut said:

Ryan Maue ported this map, very different from Kuchera

Still gives OC nearly 30 inches lmao

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

This is absurd for Ocean City. I have to imagine if this is even close to realistic, there's going to be a lot of chasers heading down there

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea... So I went through records and plotted all the storms similar in evolution to this (miller b that initiated a secondary coastal east of our longitude off the coast) that actually managed to produce warning snowfall for most of our area (centered on DC and Baltimore) and plotted them in red.  Then I plotted the recent examples of fails in this scenario from the last 20 years in black.  I got a similar number in each sample because I went back 100 years to get the win's and only had to go back about 20 years to get the fails LOL so this isnt totally 100% scientific but it gives a good idea what we want.  The one purple was a warning event for places from Baltimore north and east but with a sharp cutoff and screwed over DC and anywhere southwest of there. 

This gives a pretty good idea where we need the surface low to track.  These tracks 150 miles off the coast just arent going to work, if we want a significant storm to get back to most of our area we need the low to tuck in real close if no right on the coast.  The OTS track is going to end very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and all the other teases we tracked.  

Has there been any model runs that have actually shown tracks similar to those in red so far? Does the overall pattern even support a track tucked that close to the coast? 

As far as what I've seen and heard over the past week or so the answers to both those questions are both a resounding no. 

29 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I typically won’t chase a storm if my yard is in line for any snow at all.  But if the weekend storm is going to have me trying to scratch out an inch while any part of the east coast has blizzard conditions, I might have to reconsider that policy. 

I've always been curious about people who chase. Would you designate a certain amount of days you'd be okay with being stuck wherever you go? 

I ask because I have three days off from work starting on Saturday, and I'm partially considering driving to the coast if it looks much better setup, but if they do get buried, I'd have the concern of being stuck there. 

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I'm not feeling it for those of us west of the bay. It's not worth getting emotionally invested in what is likely to be a cartopper. Hope I'm wrong, but I've seen this play out way too many times.

I'm as much of a weenie as anyone but I'm not feeling it. I keep seeing the very intelligent people in the forum saying how 95% of the time this setup doesn't work out great west of the bay yet everyone seems to just be burying that and desperately hoping for the 5% chance it defies odds. 

I'm a very rational person and I just can't go against what looks to be an overwhelming likely outcome. It's been looking like from the beginning that this setup screams something huge for someone up in the New England area. 

I feel bad for saying this but honestly I can't enjoy 2-4 inches if I know NJ, NYC or Boston is getting 2-3 feet. It's just too bitter. 

It honestly makes me a little sad when I go in the storm thread because I know how desperately everyone wants the big one, and I also think with it looking more and more evident that at least the beginning of February will start mild and possibly stormy/rainy, the pull of desperation is getting pretty intense. 

5 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

ALready know where this is headed- a so called "great pattern" is turning out to be a not so great pattern. We got cold and watch as clippers dry up before our eyes and coastal lows head out to sea.

Once we break this pattern with a shut out, it will be an even worse one, probably SE ridge stuff and 60's.

I am ready for Spring. 

No you're absolutely right, but on the flip side, there's also been several times the talk is that the long range looks brutal and it actually turns out to deliver. I'm not saying that will be the case now, but it works both ways in the long range. It's why I never understand why people in here get so high or so low based on looks at 10 days or beyond. It's such a waste of time. 

With that said, the medium/long range thread REEKS of desperation. It's actually kind of sad to go in there. 

YES! Another major threat that's about 10 days away! 

34 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Indeed, I just hope there's enough powder left.  In any case it beats the dust to slopfest.  Hopefully a mere primer to what's coming down the pike.

I hope your optimism pays off, but I can't help but not feel so great considering were currently entrenched in the period that was "what's coming down the pike"  not too long ago and things aren't looking too hot. 

There's a dark side of me that actually finds it somewhat humorous that it's now looking all too possible that we are going to make it through this "primed and ready" period without any substantial snows. 

I told myself before when everyone was losing their minds about how incredible the mid/long range looked that it's a bad omen. 

Its just amazing to me how many times the talk in here is how great OR terrible the long range looks, then it arrives and it's not as advertised. Keeping with that same energy, if the talk starts to be that things look brutal for February, I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if that's when we actually get a nice storm. Just the way things seem to go in here. 

It's a crapshoot in here with everyone trying to figure out what the setup is going to be in a week, yet somehow we talk seriously about 14+ days away. Give me a break. 

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

The gfs isn't correct either you guys know that right?

At least the GFS hasn't had 3 runs showing a monster coastal storm within the past two days lol

I've been putting it off and trying not to accept this new reality, but I'm officially on board with the GFS as our new king. 

Euro on its knees begging for the GFS to be merciful with him lol

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but some of us don't have that right now...Got very little snow left from Sunday due to the rain

I didn't even have anything left Monday morning lol. 

45 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

We be chasing another phantom ... again just for different reasons. Yall must be hurtin' after all of those historic years stuff like that doesn't cut it anymore.

It's just like Bob Chill said. We rarely time the big dogs we are reliant entirely on extended cold to get HECS.

A huge snowstorm with temperatures in the teens followed by deep winter cold...if this Euro doesn't calm down lol

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

we could be waiting until Thursday....

So be it 

I still don't want a thread until the GFS gets somewhat on board lol

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Which way.?

Back and to the left

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 18z euro must have looked great 

If it indeed did look terrible, there certainly seems to be a consistency between the models with a tad more juice for Thursday looking much worse for the weekend vs the models that look bad for Thursday being more promising for the weekend

I'm not intelligent enough to understand the connection if there even is one but it does seem like the models that are juicier with the Thursday "threat" are much worse with the Saturday potential. 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I always root for a big dog no matter but when it comes to dreaming about repeat periods I think more about years like JFM 03 & 14. 96 had a similar period but I wasn't here for that one. I adored the 2010 storms for sure. But deep winter was quick to come and go. The Jan 87 back to back storms didn't have nearly the depth of Feb 2010 but the deep winter that followed was next level. Roads (even main ones) had snow stuck on them for longer than I remember at any other time here.

My weeniesm is multi-faceted. I get off on extended deep winter conditions, bay freezes, devastating ice storms, massive water main explosions, kids stuck to flagpoles, and fun winter stuff like that. My weenie is complex 

Oh absolutely. I've always kind of felt in the minority in here but I love if it gets just frigid for an extended period with no significant warm ups. I don't even need snow to be satisfied during a stretch like that. Give me some days that stay below 20 and I can go hike, check out frozen bodies of water. I'm all about it. 

Just when thinking about big snows, getting two 18+ inch storms within 5 days of each other around here is just mind blowing to this day for me. 

1 minute ago, WxMan1 said:

It was also during Super Bowl 25, I believe the Giants vs. the Broncos. I believe the forecast for my area (West Springfield at the time) was 6-10", and we ended up getting around a foot. Fluffy stuff. At one point, DCA was getting several hours of mod-heavy snow with temps in the upper teens.

Great stuff! What website is this by chance?

Anyone else just have random moments where you think about that week in February 2010 and just how unprecedented it was and how it's something we will almost certainly never experience again in our lifetime? 

There are so many things I'd trade off in order to experience that week again.