Steve25

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6 GFS is trending in the right direction….WB 6Z yesterday compared to today.  No surface low like EURO.  Let’s see what GEFS says…

Isn't it trending towards colder but also dry? 

The thing I'm not understanding about the "cold chasing precip never works" people is that next week there's a semblance of cold air already around BEFORE the potential storm takes shape next week. Obviously if the low forms right over us or to the west, it doesn't really matter what the temperatures are coming in, at least in terms of pure snow. Just from what I can see, it seems like this is almost entirely about where the main low pressure takes over vs not having enough cold air in place to make it work. 

Correct me if I'm wrong. Many much more intelligent folks in here. 

Non-scientific but I'm using the "Were due" logic for this pattern in the final 10 days of December.  BWI has went 12 consecutive December's with less than 5 inches of snow(10 out of those 12 have recorded less than 1.6 inches). I'm aware December's aren't a strong snow month overall for our region but that's still a particularly bleak stretch. 

I know everyone is moving on from Friday but I'm still hanging on the edge because I'm supposed to have some pretty significant outdoor plans so it's pretty annoying that the GFS has seemed to get rid of that storm entirely, yet the Euro still has plenty of rain. Let's get some consensus lol. 

Random insect question, but has anyone been seeing a ton of these orange and black colored flying bugs specifically on these days where it gets warm? They've been everywhere in my neighborhood near Towson. They don't appear to be aggressive but there's tons of them fluttering around. They're not anything significantly large. Maybe slightly bigger than a typical firefly. 

I did a little research and the only thing I could find was "Boxelder" bugs, but honestly these look a little more fuzzy/fluffy than those do in the images. 

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thanks for summarizing this. Now these days I'm feeling more at peace with what's happened these last 6 years, but this is what I've been tryin' to tell folks about where more people on this forum live (well, half the forum anyway...because DCA has actually fared better!)

To be honest, I'm kind of at peace with this stretch because I was lucky enough to experience one of the most unbelievable winters in terms of snow of all time around here in 09/10. Also, three consecutive very solid winters from 13/14 to 15/16. Felt due for an extended stretch of sub-par. What comes around goes around. 

A few BWI facts tidbits going into this winter: 

The December's on average have been the worst snow month since records have been kept. They average about 2.5 inches in that month since official records have been kept. With that said, they are in a particularly bleak stretch. 12 consecutive winters with less than 5 inches of snow. To put that in perspective, they've reached 12 consecutive one other time in history (1990/91 through 2001/02). Never reached 13, so that could happen for the first time ever this winter. Just an added stat, 10 out the past 12 have been 1.6 inches or lower and 6 out of 12 have been less than an inch. Brutal. 

They have also went 6 consecutive winters with 19 inches of snow or less in total. The only time they have went longer was 1970/71 to 1976/77 with 7 consecutive. They can tie that this winter. 

14 hours ago, mattie g said:

100% agreed.

Plenty of talk of a quite warm November on the Mid-Atlantic, which, assuming the source region in Canada doesn't torch, could be a good thing in setting up a possible colder period into December-January, as you said.

In my opinion, November is a great torch month. It can be plenty warm enough for t-shirts and really pleasant days, but it won't get hot, and those warm days are almost always dry. Any cold days are just wasted, so better it be mild!

I was just saying this to people today! It's really the only month of the year I'm good with being warmer than average. 10 degrees above average is like, mid to upper 60s for highs in November. That's gorgeous. I love winter weather like most of us in here, but days in the 60s are incredible. A little chill, but if it's sunny and dry it's very comfy. 

Parkville, Maryland:

January 3rd- 3"

January 7th- 4.5"

January 16th- 2.5" followed by rain

January 29th- 1.5"

February 14th- 1"

March 12th- 1"

Total- 13.5"

Yet another below average winter snowfall wise. January started with some real hope in the first week, and that was about it. Considering it took until January to even see a trace of snow, and we essentially went snowless in February, I grade this winter a D+. It tried for a little bit in early January but ultimately it completely failed on what looked to be a prime pattern in the back half of January and didn't even show up to class in most of December, February and March. 

Baltimore County folks, did anyone get several inches OR pavement caving of any kind? 

Just trying to figure out where the cutoff was between areas who did very well and areas that busted

Maybe an inch if I'm being generous in Parkville(Just NE of Baltimore City). No impact at all to any paved surfaces. Can tell temperatures are dropping because I see icicles forming on everything. 

WWA was definitely the right call. I'll enjoy any wintry type of day though! Walked this morning during the transition from rain to sleet to snow, that was pretty fun even though I got soaked. 

Trying to figure out what to do for work tomorrow. I leave around 6:40 AM which it will be raining but my concern is leaving it in the parking lot all day and getting out around 6 PM. I'm not trying to come out to my car encased in a thick layer of frozen slop. This would be around Baltimore City. 

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How we lookin?

Prepare for a lot of 50ish days with sliding chilly rain events every now and then

I will always hope for the best until the end but realistically, I've set my expectations that we're done with 6+ inch events for this winter that are truly enjoyable (as in, it isn't followed by a swift and significant warm up/a substantial rain event). 

I hope I'll end up eating my words by the end of February but with the Nina in full control, NAO aggressively positive, and a few other factors, I just don't see much sustained cold to go around. 

I don't really care what happens in March. If we get winter fun at that point, I'll enjoy it but my mind has switched to my anxiety about Spring/Summer being right around the corner so it's hard for me to full embrace it the way I would in December, January, or February. 

1 hour ago, Kleimax said:

I can’t wait to get rug pulled again 

Can a rug be pulled if it hasn't been realistically laid out yet?

It's funny that it's supposed to be warm on Saturday and that makes me feel more confident we will get some snow on Sunday. 

3 hours ago, DeeDeeHCue said:

So when do we think we will see a really strong snow (foot or more) again in Baltimore? 2023? This decade? 
 

If we're being completely fair, we have stayed on our 5-7 year average for foot+ storms in Baltimore. Next winter will be 7 years since the last one, so we're not overdue at all. We're pretty much on pace. 

Its the 5-11 inch, moderate type of snow events that have come close to disappearing in recent history. 

I know the averages are getting worse. Average snowfall per winter has went down a few ticks. Average temps in winter months has climbed a few ticks compared to history. 

With that said, if you go back through our history of keeping weather records, and compile all the 12+ inch storms, throughout our entire history(dating back to the late 1800s), we average one storm of that variety approximately every 6 years. So if we're just speaking in terms of "Major Snowstorms", were really not in any kind of significant drought. If we somehow get one in February or March, we will be right on target. If it happens next winter, we really aren't that far off the average. 

Now that's just speaking on huge storms. I'm sure there's stats that show that the amount of like 5-10 inch storms have dropped significantly in recent history compared to over the full history of our area. 

The stat on big storms is also skewed by a winter like 09/10 because we got THREE storms that winter over a foot. So honestly it's probably generous to say we average one every 6 years. We're averaging major snowstorms(12"+) more frequently in the past 30 years than any other period in our history. Ironically, it's probably one of our worst periods in history when it comes to events in the 5-11 inch range. 

Definitely gives some credence to the climate argument that the averages are getting worse but the extremes are becoming more frequent. 

GFS continues to tell folks in western Connecticut and NY that you'll get nothing and like it! Will be interesting to see if it pans out 

You should name the next thread "Our next big disappointment" just to try to reverse jinx the weather powers that be 

Wouldn't it just make more sense for a snowstorm to follow and brief but legitimate warm up vs in the midst of a consistent stretch of cold weather? 

This is the Mid-Atlantic after all lol

I'm actually becoming really fascinated by the difference in snow amounts from the areas that will see snow from the coastal like the Eastern Shore, NJ, NY, Connecticut. Some DRAMATIC differences in NAM/Euro vs GFS for some of those areas. 

IconICK

To be fair I think it was PSU who warned that the Euro and Nam tend to be way too amped in these scenarios so if they come in with the best results to go easy with reactions. Not discrediting anything anyone is saying but just trying to keep in mind some words from the wise. 

12 minutes ago, Stradivarious said:

I played a rehearsal with the Annapolis symphony that night. When I went in at 7:30, the local radio was forecasting flurries. When I came out to the car at @10, I turned the radio back on and heard what sounded like paper tearing..and the DJ said, “ What you just heard was me tearing up the forecast I’ve been giving all night. Folks, it’s going to snow over a foot, and it’s going to begin in about one hour”…I made it back to Hollywood Md as the flakes were beginning to fly…

I dream of experiencing something like this. With the plethora of forecasting tools now though, I doubt anything this extreme will happen. Also, the way things tend to be way over hyped as opposed to under hyped, doesn't leave much of an opportunity. Can always hope though.