Steve25

2 hours ago, Ji said:

without any snow in Dec....we are simply not going to get an epic winter. Lets say we get 10 in Jan, 15 in Feb and 5 in march.....thats 30.....thats not epic...its decent. We really need one or two double digit storms including  hecs to put us in 2002-2003 land. 

looks like we are headed for a 65-66 winter--if we are lucky  

It's wild to me how some of you are of the "Epic winter or bust" mentality. I understand with the Nino and the years of futility we are desperate, but I'm going on 8 full years since I've witnessed even a 6 inch snowfall. You better believe, if I get ONE double digit storm this winter, I'm going to treasure it! 

I just had a memory pop up on my Facebook from this day in 2010 and I was posting about how it was cold, but there were no signs of snow in the foreseeable future, and just whining/complaining about it. In early December directly following our unbelievable 09/10. What a pathetic weenie I was! LOL

BWI: 27.6"

DCA: 20.3"

IAD: 32.1"

RIC: 13.2"

Tiebreaker SBY: 15.5"

Saw this on Twitter. As much as this is supposed to be frustrating, all I can think about is that January of 2016 was the last time Baltimore experienced a significant snowfall. 

39 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Good catch. My quick analysis looked at the previous 9 years. 

Edit: Here's the updated table. Interesting to see the '30s, '50s, '70s, and '90s in here - every 20 years being represented until you get into the 2000s, when it skips to the 2020s.

1. 2022-23: 9.14
2. 1976-77: 11.44
3. 1955-56: 12.01
4. 1954-55: 12.13
5. 1994-95: 12.71
6. 1975-76: 12.86
7. 1931-32: 13.79
8. 1974-75: 13.87
9. 1953-54: 14.03
10. 1956-57: 14.11
11. 2021-22: 14.13
12. 1952-53: 14.46
13. 1993-94: 14.46
14. 1977-78: 14.49
15. 1932-33: 14.81
16. 1973-74: 15.47
17. 1991-92: 15.76
18. 1930-31: 15.93
19. 2020-21: 16.17
20. 1951-52: 16.50

It definitely is interesting! Taking a quick look, 94-95 was the final year represented on this list before the 2020s. I think the simple reason for that is the massive "outlier" years started skewing the 7 year sample size starting in 95-96. 

95-96, BWI was 62.5 inches

Then, 7 years later in 02-03 they had 58.1. 

Then, 7 years after that in 09-10, 77 inches. 

24 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Yeah, I check a couple others, and am getting lower numbers. But say it's the 7 previous years, then 1977 is 12.85. If it's inclusive, then 1977 is 11.44.  Overall, I like the chart though.

Or maybe I'm missing something.

Edit: My calculation about 17-23 was wrong.   But the other items still appear to be erroneous

Yeah, there's some odd numbers on that list. All I know for a fact, is that the winters of 2016-17 through 2022-23 is the lowest snowfall period for BWI over a 7 winter stretch in record keeping history. 

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

If you take the previous 7-year average of BWI annual snowfalls for all years from 1900-present, here's the worst 20:

1. 1956-57: 13.27
2. 1976-77: 13.30
3. 1955-56: 14.16
4. 2022-23: 14.20
5. 1975-76: 14.67
6. 1954-55: 14.82
7. 1991-92: 15.01
8. 1977-78: 15.04
9. 1957-58: 15.83
10. 1932-33: 15.96
11. 1994-95: 16.07
12. 1952-53: 16.07
13. 1992-93: 16.11
14. 1958-59: 16.20
15. 1980-81: 16.57
16. 1931-32: 16.59
17. 1953-54: 16.60
18. 2019-20: 16.79
19. 1993-94: 16.89
20. 1951-52: 17.01

I have it on good authority that weenies were jumping off cliffs in the 50s.

Good information, one thing though. I'm almost certain this doesn't include 2022-23 in that span. It's the 7 years leading up to 2022-23, going from 2015-16 to 2021-22. Obviously, 2015-16 presented us with that huge storm in January which got our season total over 30 inches. 

Certain that the 7 year span from 2016-17 to 2022-23 is the worst 7 year stretch in this areas history. I mean, it's saying something that the 7 year period INCLUDING 2015-16 is still 4th on the list. 

If my math is correct, BWI is averaging 9.2 inches annually in the previous 7 years, from 2016-17 through 2022-23. As you can see by your list, 9.2 would be by far the lowest over a 7 year period, and it's not remotely close.

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That's absolutely fair to say. 

Let's say we duplicate all the signals we were getting in 2009 into this year.

In any other "normal" time, everyone would be optimistic like @nw baltimore wx just said. 

But after an awful 7 year stretch like the one we had, would we have that same optimism even if the same signals are staring right at us in the face?

I'm not saying that's the case, but like I said in my other post, 09-10 is one of my top analog matches based on nino strength, structure, forcing, QBO, and even the PDO.

Yeah, that's precisely what I'm saying. I don't want to be too repetitive with what you're saying. To answer what you're saying, even if there were the exact same signals and setup, no, I don't think we'd see anywhere close to the same positivity. I think we'd get a lot of "I'll believe it when I see it." 

I also think it's fair to say that even if there were very promising signals for the upcoming winter, it's going to be hard for many to show too much optimism or hope just due to the period we're living in. 

I don't even know if it's arguable anymore that the past 7 year stretch is the worst in this areas history. BWI is coming off it's lowest snow season in 140 years of keeping official records. They've been under 19 inches total for 7 consecutive seasons, tying the all time record from 70/71 to 76/77. Our stretch being notably worse though, with 3 of these 7 years being three inches or less. That period in the 70s only had one such season. If we make it to January of 2024, it'll be 8 consecutive years since our last area wide 6+ inch snowstorm. 

On top of all that statistical data, we have all the talk that this is not just a bad stretch, this is the new normal around here. It's a dark time for winter enthusiasts in this region and it doesn't make it easier when every time someone brings up a positive signal for the winter, there's someone countering it with why it's not as positive as you may think. 

That was easily the most intense sounding storms I think I've had all Summer in Parkville. No real wind to speak of, but the lightning and thunder was insane. I could feel my house shaking. 

I don't have a measurement on the rain but it seemed significant 

Just sitting here going through my winter notes from the past several years. Obviously, it's been a bad stretch, but it's hitting me that I haven't experienced a 6+ inch snowfall in my yard in 7 full winters, just north of Baltimore.  

Here's to hoping this winter doesn't make it 8!

Getting smacked around in Parkville. No wind, but tons of hail and lightning! 

Idk where you all are feeling any "dry" air or winds. It feels like soup out here in Baltimore. It's mid-morning and the Temp is in the 80s with dew in the 70s. 

I'm just happy after our painful dry stretch, there's a chance of rain every day in the 10 day outlook. Lots of ugly brown areas in the grass. The ground is begging for it

Trying to figure out exactly what we're looking at for Saturday. It was looking like an all night washout not too long ago, but suddenly the NAM makes it look like a rather intense line of storms for a few hours during the afternoon. 

On 3/15/2023 at 11:14 PM, psuhoffman said:

Keep in mind that’s not a departure from normal as a %. Places like DC can’t have large numerical deficits because they only avg 14” a year compared to somewhere like Deep Creek that averages over 100”. So even if they are less below avg in terms of % they can have a larger numerical deficit over time. 

I was well aware of that when I shared it. I was only illustrating that most of the eastern US has been respectively well below average over the past 4 winters. Obviously the more snow you average, the easier it is to be significantly below average in terms of inches. At the end of the day though, below average is still below average. 

I find it interesting that it's basically the entire eastern half of the country struggling the past several winters, not just our area. 

In fact, Maryland is 9th on the list of states with negative departure from average snowfall the past 4 winters. 

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

If you go back and read my posts I was never excited about the previous few weeks. I understand the climo, but I’d personally argue that this is possibly one of the best means we’ve had all season. Only issue is with climo we need to be close to perfect.




.

I appreciate those of you still tracking. You do good work. I truly hope it works out. 

The idea of getting a snowstorm in late March after a full winter without even a tenth of an inch in my backyard is so stupid that it just might work lol

I may be the only one, but statistically I think it's pretty wild that I've lived through Baltimore's best and worst winters of all time, just in the past 13 years. 

Major extremes. 

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yell at me later if it doesn't pan out. But looks good for some of us on Friday and hope still remains for next week. 

Meh, when things are already at rock bottom for the winter, creating a thread can't hurt anyone 

54 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Persistence wins. One last chance near the 15 th to the 20 th.  Incredible inland and far NW snowstorms the last three years. We need something to re-set the pattern.  

Forever 10 days out

Enjoying my sleet pellets in Parkville!

When the GFS shows no snow accumulation 10 days out: 

"It's over, look to the next window of opportunity" 

When the GFS shows good snow accumulation 10 days out: 

"It's 10 days away, we all know that's not going to be right." 

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

we actually havent had a real heartbreak this winter. you remember those winter where we track storms for 10 days non stop....and we make it to day 2...and we get a slight shift which takes us from 4-8 to 1 inch or less....those to me are much worse than losing a threat at 5 days out. God has been merciful on us in that regard this winter

This is a great point. If people are locking themselves in for storms 7+ days out, the heartbreak is not on the models, it's on you. 

There would be something so chaotic and poetic about getting a decent snow/ice storm in March just as most have completely turned the corner to Spring. Especially following one of, if not the worst December through February our region has ever seen.