Steve25

Side note, how do you guys attach your pics in here. I've tried and every pic I took with my phone today it's saying are too large to attach. Just normal phone camera 

Beggars can't be choosers. I'm glad we should finally have a wintry week. Snow showers today. Possible light, steady snow Monday night/Tuesday(maybe first inch in years), another possible threat Friday. Very cold all week. It does look like it gets mild the following week, I'm not sure how long that's expected to last, but I'll enjoy whatever presents itself this week. 

How many more "Onto the next one" do we have in us before April arrives? 

This has been a wild thing to track. For several days the Euro and its ensembles were the only ones showing this. The moment the GFS jumped on, the Euro said "Imma head out." Now the GFS is slipping away. It would be too fitting if this is when the Euro gets back on. If the Euro stays off, though, we may be seeing the correct trend. 

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Who suggested that?

Just seems like the entire discussion has switched to just hoping we can turn things around the last week of January and into February 

 So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? 

What are we doing in here? 

Should I actually be considering leaving work early tomorrow, let's say around 3 PM, as opposed to around 6 PM? 

I usually would never even consider it for a rainstorm but I keep seeing so much about how nasty it supposedly will be in the evening

Also, BWI has NEVER went 8 consecutive winters UNDER 20 inches of snow. We've gone 7 years, twice. 

1970/71-1976/77

And the current 2016/17-2022/23

So yeah, if we stay under 20 this winter, it'll be the first time since records have been kept that it's happened. 

I'm not in "panic" mode at all. I am in a lousy mindset tonight so I thought why not vent here. 

Just getting a little tired of hearing "Just wait until..." Yada Yada. I heard it all of December. Just wait until the end of December/beginning of January, things are going to flip! Yet, here we are, in the midst of a week long stretch approaching mid-January with THREE rainstorms. 

Frankly, I still firmly believe Baltimore will see a 6+ inch snowfall this winter. Mainly just because even in this hellscape of a period were entrenched in, I still don't think we go 8 full winters without a 6 inch snowfall. I refuse to believe that will happen, unless it does happen, then I'll cry myself to sleep later on in March when the reality is cemented in LOL

I'm surprised some of you are already just writing off the period around next weekend. It feels like the models haven't come close to figuring out exactly how it'll play out, particularly with all this action in the week leading up to it. 

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

After the past 7 years, a couple inches and cold weather in a Nino in late January is probably going to lower morale even more than it already is

I can only speak for myself, of course, but any legit cold would only raise my morale. I'm a winter lover all the way through. 

How do you guys feel about the weekend of the 13th/14th? Does the overall pattern look like it would lend itself to another NW/cutter type of track like mid-week? 

Part of the reason our climate is warming is due to all the hot air being blown around in these forums. 

In all seriousness, though, all those who truly believe this winter(or all winters moving forward) are dead, do yourselves a favor and step away from the models and the forums. If you are 100% sure of what's coming, then there's absolutely no reason to keep looking. 

I'm still just happy colder airmasses continue to get closer and closer. Some of y'all really could benefit from just walking away from the models and forum for a week and come back on the 29th and see how things look. 

I'm just happy to be seeing a lot more large swaths of cold air on the models now. Always the first step. 

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge. 

Are you okay?

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

Why does everyone keep saying this.  We had a great run from 2009-2016.  BWI averages 21 inches a year.  With all those good years, you have to have some bad ones.  The lack of snowfall is not just in our area, but the entire east coast.  You know the old saying.  If it is snowing on one coast, it is not snowing on the other.  The west coast has been getting most the of the snowfall the last couple of years.

I'm sorry. Rational thinking and logic is not welcome in the panic room. 

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Agreed. Wall-to-wall winter like 13-14 or a monster season like 09-10 would be amazing, but if not, a huge storm and a mild winter with weather you can actually enjoy being outside would be great. The warm/wet, cold/dry winters 

I'll take cold and dry over mild during the winter all day. We have 3 out of 4 seasons that already give us primarily mild weather. Love when we get one of those extended super cold periods like we had in early January 2018. Loved going out to see how frozen the bodies of water were around town. Only get potential for true winter weather for 2, maybe 3, months of the year. I'm trying to soak it up! 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

im only here with PSU for HECS. after all these years..i dont think even MECS would do it

If you're around 30 years old, or older, you've lived in a golden age for HECS. Out of the largest snowstorms in Baltimores history, 4 of the top 5 have occurred since 1996(96, 03, 10, 16). You can also throw in the other two blizzards from 09/10 that are in the top 10. 6 of the top 10 snowstorms of all time have happened in the last 27 years. 

Of course, with that has come less average snow per winter. AKA, we're seeing a lot less of the winters with multiple 5-8 inch snowfalls. Based on this regions "recent" climate, I'd feel a lot better about getting a massive smash storm as opposed to multiple moderate events. I'd happily take either, though. 

Our climate definitely has entered an interesting place in the past 30 years or so. Our average snowfall per year has definitely declined, but the number of huge storms has increased in frequency. 4 of Baltimores top 5 two-day snowstorms were 96, 03, 10, and 16. 

For those in these forums who are old enough to have been tracking storms since the 90s, you've actually grown up in a golden age for big snowstorms. Unfortunately, it's come with the trade-off of having more dud winters to deal with. 

3 minutes ago, gopper said:

I have a theory that for every blizzard we experience, we need to "pay" 4 years till the next one.  09-10 had 3 blizzards.  Therefore, we need to pay 12 years which would have taken us to 2022.  In 2016 we had a blizzard, so perhaps we will need to wait till 2026 for our next one.  No science or data to support this at all.  Just a sense that every big one only occurs at about 4 year intervals.  Hopefully, I am wrong and this year is our next big one!

Regardless, I have a feeling we will see several snows this year.  Hopefully a lot of small and moderate snows to keep us busy!

I like the "every 7 years" logic. It doesn't account for a winter like 09/10 with multiple historic storms, but in my lifetime, this area has had a MAJOR SNOWSTORM on winters almost exactly 7-ish years apart. 96, 03, 09/10, 16...

33 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Why do you always do this?  You will be insufferable come game time.

If the heaviest precip doesn't last for at least 16 hours consistently, it's a bust! 

I'm just so thankful my sump pump is working! Have been having issues with it. Kind of had to improvise to get it functional because I wasn't able to buy a new one before the storm. It's been chugging along really well!

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Last 7 years have jaded him big time.

For sure. It is hard to blame folks, though. It's been a really tough stretch. Coming off the worst winter in this regions entire history, within possibly the worst stretch of winters in history, coming up on a massive nor'easter on Christmas week that will be entirely rain. My hope is alive for January and February, but I get it. 

I haven't come close to giving up on this winter, which is why this post isn't going in the panic room thread. I do think there's some level of cruel irony that there were a few people comparing this winter setup to 09/10, and now we're sitting here looking at a near perfect track for a monster coastal storm around December 19th, remembering that we cashed in huge on December 19th in 2009, but this time it's going to be all rain because there's just no source of cold. 

Just a little painful.