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Solution Man

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Everything posted by Solution Man

  1. Hope it’s a slow moving coal train and not a bullet train
  2. Look familiar from a while back….I believe we did well with that look
  3. Sterling: LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Friday, a deep trough will continue to move further east. Confidence has continued to increase on the negative tilt nature of this trough over the last few runs as it reaches the east coast. The 18/00z runs of the GEFS has backed off the center of low pressure being closer to the coast whereas the EPS/NBM are trending a bit more north-west. A more westward trend could bring a more widespread significant snowfall for portions of the area. For now, there still seems to be some discontinuity in the guidance as to the position of the low which will greatly impacts the snow totals that are received within the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is not a slam dunk by any means with a lack of blocking in the northern Atlantic. Nonetheless, the overall pattern for the event seems to be honing in on a snowy solution for much of the area with areas closer to the I-95 corridor having the higher totals for now, given where the best forcing/moisture availability resides. Do expect the Alleghenies to receive a fairly consistent snowfall for the event due to upsloping. Given the uncertainties with this event, have kept PoPs through Saturday evening but with a potentially fast moving track on pace, we may see conditions begin to dramatically improve during the day on Saturday. Other story will be the winds with this system with a tight gradient between the strong Arctic high pressure that will bring frigid cold temperatures Thursday and as it departs and the upper trough begins to build into the area. Coupled with these winds will be frigid cold temperatures, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Wind chill values may become more widespread in the negatives, even east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Wind Chill Watches/Warnings/Advisories may be needed. Behind the system, high pressure will build back in and dominate for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. A slight warming trend is possible beyond the system as well.
  4. Sterling: The region of high pressure will gradually shift east and more centralized over the region Thursday, leading to continued dry and cold conditions. The low will continue to shift to the east and eventually offshore Thursday night. Confidence has increased to trigger a slight threat for a winter storm for all of the region (see weather.gov/lwx/winter) for Friday into Saturday. Uncertainty remains high, but confidence in an impactful winter storm for part of the eastern seaboard, including the local area, is increasing.
  5. Well said, I couldn’t give sh*t what they get. Let’s bring our piece home
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