justinj

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Im going to trust the professionals here and upton still has 7-10 for NYC. I mean this was never NYC's storm anyway but people are overreacting I think to some small shifts east.   

I think 6-8 is still on the table for NYC

I can’t believe so many are throwing in the towel already lol

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

So it went from 16+ in ISP to being over in 20 minutes? What did I miss?

You missed people being upset they’re not going jackpot in there backyard. This is going to be a great storm

Time to nowcast and let this happen

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

LOL SNE ‘s are literally bridge jumping because they went from 24+ to 12-18”. Wish we had that problem.

Someone will get 24+ just a matter of where. It could be in an unexpected area.

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

NWS a/o 3:42 pm. Based on the gloom and doom, this map must be way off

Central and eastern suffolk should be good for the 12-18. I think the NYC area is too much

What ever happens happens. I like my odds where I’m at. About 3 miles nw of the William Floyd 

What’s everyone’s thought on timing of this storm for LI? Time it will begin tonight?

8 minutes ago, hooralph said:

heartbreaker (if you were hoping for continued westward trend)

It’s one run. This is gonna come down to nowcast. Someone will be in for a big disappointment 

Just now, jm1220 said:

I would be too if I was you (I'm looking forward to it also but my odds are still a little less than yours IMO). You have a really good chance at seeing 20".

Your area (nw suffolk) usually does some of the best totals in any storm. Seems those bands always setup over smithtown/commack/Huntington/northport. My turn now 

Just now, jm1220 said:

I'd be pretty stunned if there aren't 20"+ amounts out there. Prime area is probably Rt 112 to near Riverhead.

I’m in middle island 2-3 miles east of 112. Looking forward to this one!

26 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Nassau and Suffolk would be my guess but it wouldn't shock me if it were just Suffolk. 

Rjay Holbrook will be a good location for this storm

What are realistic totals for for central suffolk?

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If it's doable for you I'd definitely head out there. Montauk is nice this time of year. 

When was the last time montauk or the east end actually had more snow than say west of the William Floyd? Seems to almost never happen regardless of track 

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

I'm not hyping the Euro control so don't take it that way.  Should be treated as just another member.

06Z control continues very impressive and now has all of NJ in close to or just over 20" totals.

Individual eps members also have increased in the number with now 17 members with 12"+ for KMMU.  Showing a shift westward of higher totals.  Two members @ 24 - 25".

I like that Euro EPS is holding steady or even nudging west.  That is the only take away here.

Control is classic KU closing / capturing solution for NJ.  Longs ways to go...just sharing some information here.

Also, probabilities are rising as per a few posts back from another poster.  I've been watching those over the last 24 hours as well.

All of NJ close to or over 20” LOL

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2"? lol, this will go down as 1/2", radar looks awful. 

Yup it’s over

Moderate snow sticking to grass and the patio. 35 degrees middle island 

37 and rain here in middle island

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm seldom in the regional jack zone, but I just assumed that it is statistically unlikely to be in it for any one place for a given storm.   February 2003, January 2005, Feb 2006, Dec 2009, late Feb 2010, January 2015, and January 2016 all come to mind as notable storms where we weren't close to local jackpots.

Notable storms where we were in the jackpot zone include 3/15/99, 1/27/2004 and 2/14/2104.  There are many others among smaller snowfalls.

There were a couple of notable storms where we were reasonably close, including February 2013 which was a real good one to be reasonably close to.

I shouldve said NW suffolk usually always does better than 75-80% of the rest of the island. Jackpot not always  but usually has the higher totals

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did they get so much?  Sound effect snow?

It started late here and ended early, it really was a 6 hour snowstorm here.  Do you have any totals for this area?  I got about 6" here

 

The NW and north central suffolk always seem to jackpot no matter if the forecast calls for more snow to the “west” or “east” banding almost always sets up here as well

I lived in smithtown for 20 years and we were always the bullseye 

7.6” middle island

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if you're talking PM it's long gone by then

Am

How long is this going to last for LI? Got an outdoor plan tomorrow around 8-9

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thats the only thing, I really wish this happened during the day

I hate night time snowstorms too

It seems to always be night time snow storms here on LI

Just got a Tornado warning on my iPhone at work in Smithtown