12Z GEFS (6 members of 30 with hits) and EPS (8 members of 50 with hits) pretty close at two weeks with snow chances in January. With two week to go we will see how it trends....
The holiday season is about hope. Great quote I would like to share...hopefully we get some luck the first couple weeks of January. Best wishes to you and yours....
My observations are that the globals outside five days may be helpful to see general trends but not specific storm tracks. If the ensembles show support for a storm track on the globals, that gets my attention.
Lot to sort out the next two weeks, but the advice to ignore the globals outside five days is sound. Big differences between WB 6Z GEFS (first two pictures) and WB 6Z GFS.
To reiterate above, rather than can kicking we continue to get stronger signal of colder temperatures as we move through the first and second week of January compared to yesterday's run.
WB latest EPS extended, with temperatures below normal we are in the game for January. Precip. Looks near normal for the month.
If you are looking for the peak precipitation period looks like the 7 day period ending the 23rd.
I know this is a control run, but the latest WB EPS extended run is the best I have seen all winter so far.... not only for the amount over us but that we are not on the southern edge.