Weather Will

Trip to the southern Rockies....it can still snow. WB 6Z EUR0.

NWS Sterling for Sunday rain event and 6Z GFS. A slow moving compact upper low is set to push across the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday before crossing through New England on Monday. The associated frontal system brings the next shot for widespread rainfall on Sunday. It should certainly be a welcome sight given the lengthy period of dry weather and increasing drought conditions over portions of the area. Periods of rain are likely within the warm advection regime with total amounts expected in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range, locally higher over the Alleghenies. Overcast skies will be the norm on Sunday, accompanied by highs fairly close to early November averages. That is, forecast highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Any shower activity likely comes to an end by midday Monday behind the exiting cold front

WB 0Z globals precip totals thru Monday. Hopefully this at least ends the historically dry stretch...

WB 6Z GFS and GEFS for Sunday/early Monday. Can we finally get some widespread rain????

WB 6Z GEFS precip. Panels through next weekend.

Beautiful fall afternoon for a walk!!!! Looks and feels like the season...

Mid December will be rocking....WB 12Z CFS.... or 1,000 hours out what could possibly go wrong....

WB 0Z EPS.... more of the same through mid month, mild and dry.

First raindrops in forever just went through...maybe enough to tamp down the dust and ragweed for a few hours.

WB latest EURO control, another attempt at a cold period after mid November...

At least when it is this bad, you don't get disappointed. No expectations at all.... my biggest worry is how low the Potomac is for this time of year. Better start building desalination plants on the East coast.

WB latest GEFS....another warm. dry month ahead in latest run.

I get it, but don't the models also take into account ground temps. I an assuming that is how the better models calculate temps in the more urban areas. Just interesting to see the discrepancies, weather is so boring right now nothing else to focus on...

It will be interesting to see if the WB 12Z RDPS ends up beating the WB 3K NAM within 24 hours. I am trying to decide whether to turn my water off.... I mean they are more than 5-10 degrees different in multiple places, not just inside the Beltway.

Only model I can see cold enough to support freeze warnings is 6Z RDPS.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024 MDZ004>006-008-503-505-507-508-VAZ506-261515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.241028T0600Z-241028T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Sterling, Elkton, Reisterstown, Ballenger Creek, Leesburg, Cockeysville, Eldersburg, Jarrettsville, Lisbon, Ashburn, Damascus, Frederick, Westminster, Aberdeen, and Germantown 305 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Carroll, Frederick MD, Cecil, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, and Southeast Harford Counties. In Virginia, Eastern Loudoun County. * WHEN...From late Sunday night through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. &&

To make Cape happy will post the Thanksgiving snowstorm here....yes I know WB EPS control....but it is interesting that this is the time frame where there may be cold air to tap.

6Z WB GEFS, Halloween looking warm and dry.

As we head into the last full week of October, time sure flies doesn't it, time to start looking into November. Looking at EPS weeklies, looks like temperatures return to near normal by mid/late November, and normal precipitation. Maybe setting us up for a rocking December to remember!!! Showing 30 day maps and last week of November.

WB 12Z EPS... dry weather continues but warmer the rest of the month.

Weather Channel canceled winter, saying it will be the warmest in 65 years....

38, no frost, as I start my am commute...but the heat feels good in the car!

Light rain falling.

Let's see which model does best with Wed. Am lows. 18Z EURO is warmest. Also shown 18Z GFS and 3K NAM.

Last year reminded me of an important tenet, don't trust any model more than 5 days out....H5, analogs, weeklies, etc. We need three well timed shortwaves with freezing temperatures to make most people happy. We will know how it works out in 5 months. My gut tells me this year may hold a pleasant surprise in these five months, but I would not bet my 401k on it!