Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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12Z AI went poof....really just need to watch the ensembles through this weekend.
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GEFS is too progressive, too far east, but it is deepening the tough next weekend....not done adjusting yet....we will see, at least we are in the stadium....WB 12Z yesterday compared to 6Z today at Day 10.
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WB 6Z GEFS has a couple members in the game for end of next week/weekend.
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WB 0Z EURO AI.... can it score a coup!!!
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Big difference between EURO and GFS with MJO in terms of amplitude into Phase 6 for Christmas week. If the GFS is correct, would think it will be on the warmer side. If EURO is correct, maybe we can still thread the needle with a storm being cold enough...
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WB 12Z EPS....thru Christmas Day. keep hope alive......
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Experts can tell me why I am wrong, but our one shot of snow before Christmas is about at Day 11...WB 0Z 0Z EURO AI.
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WB 18Z GFS...dreaming of a white Christmas....
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Here is the 18Z GFS.
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WB 18Z 3K NAM...
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WB 12Z EURO in fantasy range....
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Got to get the MJO out of Phase 6....hopefully by the end of the year....
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Only have about a mile drive to the train station but the fog is horrible if you are an early commuter. Stay safe out there, or better yet if you have a long driving commute work from home today if you can. May be some school delays....
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WB 18Z EURO...get the gutters cleared out tomorrow!!!! Rain Wed. And Sunday...
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Patchy dense fog on side roads on my way home between Frederick and Brunswick.
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Models from two weeks ago did a good job predicting an unsettled period for this week; but the cold air was just a tease...hopefully the pattern reload after the holidays will be colder as depicted by the current extended guidance. As we get into January, it looks colder and wet. WB extended EPS from yesterday.
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WB 18Z EURO. Widespread beneficial rain incoming. First time in awhile it has not gone poof. Be grateful... we need it!
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Beautiful day to hit the Queenstown Outlets on the shore and Fisherman's Inn for crab imperial afterwards. Great trip and perfect weather for it!!! Sunny, mild, and light winds....
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WB 12Z 12K NAM for Wed.
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Monday rain totals WB 6Z EURO. Moves in Mon. Am.
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Yes indeed! And that is why I remain cautiously optimistic for some chances this year. Remember last year, no sustained cold and a lot of false hope two week outlooks....
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This week looked good two weeks ago and it went kerpluee... I am in wait and see mode for Christmas week.
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Weeklies still look good into Mid January..... nothing wrong with the WB EPS control run this time around....at least we have some cold air around this year... we are just going to have to luck into a flush hit. We will know within 3 months...
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GEFS moves the MJO into warm phase 6 at the end of the two week period. EURO has half its members in the null phase in two weeks.
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Here is the 12Z EPS members at Day 15....jury is still out on whether it will cold /warm/normal...
