Weather Will

WB 18Z GEFS snow....couple of big hits in the individual members...i am not punting the second and third week of January yet...

WB 12z EPS see Member 27 for a glimmer of clown map hope.

Everyone is entitled to a forecast if it is based on facts. It is discouraging when the facts point toward a Warmer pattern, but personal attacks on the messengers are not warranted. The reality is that we will never again see 2009- 2010 in our lifetimes based on our climatology. But that does not mean we can’t get a snow storm in the oasis of a crappy pattern sometime before mid-March. That is why I stay in the game every year until the bitter or perhaps still glorious end.

WB 0z EPS Jan 7 upper air: appears there continues to be opportunity during the 7-10 period as previously discussed. I am wondering if the trough east of Hawaii (Assuming that is correct) should translate into more ridging in Alaska than shown...at least there is now something to watch!

WB 6Z GEFS snow mean. 20 percent of the individual members have big hits.

WB EPS Control Day 11...Looks like the week after New Years there is still some hope.

My recollection is that most of the long range forecasts were calling for a warmer December. I was happy to get my two inches in the first three weeks of the month which turned out close to average. What will be interesting is whether we see any sustained cold in January through March which would obviously give us snow hopes during peak climo. WatchIng for any sustained troughing east of Hawaii and for ridging over Alaska. I an also following the MJO. It takes some luck to get snowstorms but we need the cold air first.

Crumbs from the Snow Clown Maps EPS Day 9 12Z WB. (There are actually several members signaling some storminess around January 7-10.) At least it is something for me to check out on the next run in 12 hours...

GEFS mean on the 6th....

Looks like the GFS 18z on the 25th wants to give us some overrunning on the 3rd and a monster Coastal storm to graze us on the 6th. Interesting to see if there will be any GEFS support for that..Merry Christmas everyone!

WeatherBell (Both D'Aleo and JB) indicate that their analog years have it warm around the holiday season. Indicate MJO also was in the warm phases during this time. Latest Pioneer long range and the CPC run is cold for January. I guess we will know in another month if they were right. The theme this year is enjoy the good holiday travel and don't start to panic until about the first week of January if the pattern still looks boring...

General observation looking at the 12 z suite is that we will have temps 5-15 degrees above from Sunday-to about NY eve day depending on the timing of an arctic cold front. As some have recently noted the concern that The warmth will scour out the snow pack and cold throughout Canada during this period seems to be lessening. Now back to Christmas preparations....

Well, pleasantly surprised....snow did not amount to anything after sunrise until the last half hour. Side roads and driveway covered again! About .25 inch and 30 degrees.

Agree completely. Ending in SW. for example, moving NE of ChArlottsville. Al

About 6 inches here and I have shoveled. About over here. Looking at the radar I will be pleasantly surprised if it has not stopped snowing west of 95 by noon.

33/still flurries but every flake sticking to deck

34/flurries