Weather Will

WB 12Z GFS

WB 6Z EPS at Day 6 compared to 0z

The latest EURO weeklies also like the early to mid February period. Meaning colder air forecasted to be in place and above normal precipitation.

It’s too soon to give up. 6Z GEFS is an improvement over 0Z.

I may have no idea what I am talking about, but looking at the WB 6Z GFS pressure maps you can see that the model is trying to consolidate the low to the coast but it takes too long for our latitude. Still need to see how this plays out. With marginal cold air we need an earlier consolidated transfer to the coast.

WB 6Z GEFS is colder. But there are more lows to the west this run that look like they transfer to the coast,

Comparing WB OZ v 12Z through Th. I don’t think this will be a good run. Much warmer. Hopefully EPS will still be positive. Good night.

WB 0Z EURO late weekend disturbance.

Well at least we go below freezing area wide Sunday am to remind us it is winter on the EURO. WB 0Z.

Was comparing to 4 runs ago….I am fringed in western suburbs. i jinked this getting up. Will wait for EURO to put me back to sleep…

Water table….:)

Yup, not much snow….

WB 0Z GEFS 24 hour period. Weak sauce…

I’m amused that we are discussing the snow maps. My point is that the 12Z EURO suite is much more robust for a bigger storm than any other models….hopefully it is correct. and I am subdued because we have seen the EPS and EURO flip so I am trying to keep myself from getting disappointed. Believe me if we start seeing a significant increase in GEFS, I will be happy!!! The 12Z EPS members have several hits that would make people smile… But I would caution last night’s 0Z EPS run (last picture) was not as robust so we really don’t have a trend yet even on the EPS. Bottom line is that I will keep my expectations in check until we see more consistency within models and a greater consensus among models.

No reason to post the GEFS snow maps….

I’m more conservative this year and very busy!!!

WB 12Z GFS….model still figuring out track…

Latest MJO forecast for GFS and EURO still take it into Phase 8 by the 12th. Also 6Z run of the WB CFS keeps it chilly through mid February so we may have an extended period of time where at least the temperature will cooperate even if the short to mid term still does not show a discreet threat.

WB 6Z GFS really still figuring things out at Day 7….current and last several runs for same time period.

WB 0Z GEFS…there are both torch and colder members at mid month. My guess is we see whether the MJO actually goes into phases 8-1 or not.

Latest MJO….maybe we go into Phase 8 mid month.

WB 12Z GFS…weekend flizzard.

WB 6Z GEFS…still watching mid January.

And of course, the WB 12Z EURO control has it….

By the end of next week, it will shift westward and be another blizzard for Buffalo…but until then I will watch it….(perhaps keeping an eye on it will make all of the work that has piled up while I have been off for a week bearable to get through as I go back...)