NYCweatherNOW

You guys want to see my snow maps?

The only thing is the FV3 got November 15th snowstorm right. Besides that it’s just as bad imo

Gfs during the November 15th snow event initialized during the storm as rain meanwhile we were getting a snowstorm. I hate that model

Cold air damming

The 850’s will cool too with the pv pressing like that. No doubt we’ll have a battleground between snow and sleet for a bit around jfk area but in my opinion this is mostly a snow event as it stands to me. Still plenty of time to change

U see how the last frame the Pv presses and it cools down

Every run the last 3 days the high to our north scooted more east. First it was north of North Dakota now it’s around Montréal area. It’s hard to punch through a high like that with a low around 999. Therefore it dies out and a new low forms along the boundary layer. Resulting a switch back. In my opinion this is heavy thump of snow to freezing rain ending as a burst of snow Sunday afternoon. Horrible look. If this primary low trends the dying of the low just 50 miles southeast of today’s runs this could result in an earlier transfer of the new low off the Delmarva and ride towards just east of cape cod edit: gotta factor in the evaporative cooling from the overrunning and dynamic cooling from the new low forming off the coast.

I agree this is mostly a Wintry mix as it stands but it’s not done trending in my opinion. Let’s see by tomorrow Chris

Thermals on those models are the worst. Gfs and it’s partner are probably worse off than cmc. I would pay attention to nam thermals once we get closer

Fair enough you’re entitled to your opinion I am entitled to mine. I still think the euro and eps are not done trending southeast. If that low goes another 50 miles southeast this is an all out snowstorm for our region. I look at models and I base my forecast on my knowledge. Models are guidance and not an exact science. I look at the pattern and I see the confluence getting stronger each run, making the primary dying more south, which is making a new low form and essentially becoming a big snowstorm for us. I don’t think this is done trending. I just think this ticks south slowly for the next 36 hours. You’re a very knowledgeable poster but I base my forecasts on my experience. I think this will be mostly a snow event with brief shots of sleet.

James what do you think about New York City?

I think you’ll be fine!

Any members show out an all our blizzard for New York City and Boston sorry to bother you

Oh come on the trend has been south this year. Last year was north. I’d bet this trends to ukmet yesterdays run or close to it. Euro caved so far

50 miles south trend and New York City stays all snow. Just need that primary to die off a bit earlier and the new low to form a bit more south. Which is possible because we still have about 84 hrs till go time.

Is it south and colder sorry to bother you

The trend this year has been south. Period

If this thing trends another 30 miles south it’s all snow for New York City simple as that

Anyone have the soundings for ukmet. That track looks like the euro track from Sunday.

It went east which is better for us southerners

Anyone got the soundings for ukmet. That looks good for all

Ukmet looks a lot better than last nights. Although it doesn’t look as good as yesterday’s 12z run. I wonder if rjay could show us the thermals

2.1 for the city. Come on we’ll get half that Friday.

Can you post it

Pix or it didn’t happen