Guidance is just that. It’s not a forecast you have to always make your forecast based on experience. I think this is 3-6 inch thump followed by sleet and heavy rain maybe ending as some snow flakes
Clearly I would pick the better models. euro and ukmet are just better models and nam could be erratic and but it has improved somewhat and it doesn’t show those crazy qpf depiction like it used to.
Gfs is just not a good model. I think icon may be a better model than GFS. It seems like the GfS is good with the strength of the storm but that’s about
This setup reminds of me of a quick thump of snow followed by sleet and than maybe change to some light showers before it ends and turns brutally cold. That thump could come in like a wall and accumulate 3-6 quick inches
Check back at 1220 for better graphics than you might as well wait for the euro about 40 minutes after
edit: it’s like ukmet is the new euro. Maybe that’s about the only thing they got from brexit-European union deal
It’s practically the same because the high would be moving east and ukmet is taking that low practically due east. Ok maybe a ping or two but it’s interesting right now for sure