RocketWX

I'm right there with you on the difficulty of not getting excited. It has been historically slow in regards to severe weather near Wichita over the past year. I think Wichita NWS only issued 1 or 2 tornado warnings in the past year! This could be the first significant threat in this area in quite some time. As you mentioned, the Euro is certainly the more ominous solution as of now. While still a week out, I do find it interesting that all the local forecast discussions have mentioned the "potential" for a robust severe threat, combined with the already outlined 15% risk from Storm Prediction Center. From reading their forecasts they tend to be leaning toward the Euro solution. Just following models more closely the last few days, I'd agree that the GFS seems to be trending toward the Euro more so than the other way around. Early in the game, but I'm excited just to have a potential event to track the next few days!

Man I just looked at the 12Z Euro and I shouldn't have. Probably just getting my hopes up at this point. Still a week out but going to monitor trends closely. Honestly if it even hints at trending towards today's 12Z run it will be a fun week of model watching and potentially prepping for a central/southern plains severe weather event. Just feels like it's been forever since there was anything here in the SC Kansas area. That was quite the model run though!

Whew, bottomed out here at -18.8 on my weather station at 6:30a this morning. Incredible! In regards to this next storm, why does ICT always have to be on the edge?! lol I think I'm leaning toward a non event here but it's going to be a close call. NAM did tick back north a tiny bit but we'll see. I'd be happy with another couple inches just to top this whole 2 week period off.

Sun has broke out and finally jumped above zero. 1.2 degrees on the weather station now. Jumped within the last hour. However, temp will begin crashing shortly. As for the Tuesday storm, I do think it is a subtle difference in how wave ejects. GFS seems to be flatter but is now becoming the outlier as more and more of the HiRes models are coming more in line with the NAM, although maybe not to that extent just yet. Trend is good right now I'd say.

Yeah, seems to be working out where we were socked in clouds all day, then look to clear just in time for sunset. Temps are going to crash here tonight!

Wow, NAM has been pretty consistent pulling that moisture farther north and its holding steady, even more so on this run. Even NAM3k is showing this now, after 12Z run kept moisture southeast of ICT. I started seeing signs from a couple other models trending toward it. That would really cap off a pretty memorable 2 week stretch of winter weather around here!

Have had off and on snow all morning around Wichita as well. Not sure on accumulation since so much snow already on ground, but a guess is 0.5-1". If I recall only models that picked up on this was NAM & RAP but could be mistaken. Has been slowly weakening but very back edge west of Wichita is starting to pick up again, which was actually picked up on the 15Z RAP IIRC. For a moment, it was snowing with sun peaking through clouds which was cool to see.

I never measured but when I went out to get firewood I would say I have a similar amount here at my place. Now watching the temperature crash that is sure to come tonight and tomorrow night. And as you said, on to late Tuesday.

Last 6 runs of the Euro for ICT QPF Totals and what that equates to Kuchera snow totals. These totals are through Tuesday 00z. Interesting to see the formula in play and also how even a tiny difference in qpf can make a big difference for snow totals in these very cold temps. 10/00z 0.4" = 6.8" 10/12z 0.6" = 13.4" 11/00z 0.6" = 12.1" 11/12z 0.4" = 9.7" 12/00z 0.5" = 9.9" 12/12z 0.4."= 9.4"

I'm keeping my expectations pretty tempered here in Wichita until we get a little better consensus on how this trough ejects. The more positive tilt/open wave trend I see would explain the lower qpf projections up into KS. If I'm in Oklahoma I'm feeling good because qpf looks pretty good down there regardless. We need more neutral tilt/better organization to slug that moisture northward up here. We'll see how this Euro run trends.

Oh my, between system #1 and #2 all of northern Oklahoma and southern kansas have over 1" of qpf. I mean...wow what run!

lol in Wichita that first system on Sunday-Monday drops roughly .6-.7in of qpf but snow is falling with single digit temps. Hence the Kuchera ratio spits out 19in of snow. If this happens...wow

Man, this run of cold weather is really something. If this pans out anything like the GFS is saying, (haven't looked as closely on other models) that would be about 2 straight weeks of below freezing! With most days not even close to freezing. Jury is still out on snow potential, but one would have to assume we will have at least few shots of precip. With high ratios we could put down a decent fresh snow pack and really send temps plummeting. Will be a fun few weeks of model watching for sure! I am in Wichita, but obviously this goes for many others on this board.

Just got home after a fun day building a snowman and sledding with the family. Didnt officially measure but I'd estimate around 5" at my house in Rose Hill. (Southeast side of Wichita) Nice to finally get a decent snow around here!

I hear you rockchalk. I live just southeast of Wichita right on the Sedgwick Butler county line and it feels like it's been forever since we've had a snow that completely covered the grass. This has been a fascinating storm to track and I'm hoping it snaps that streak. A few things I'm watching: Are the Hi Res models showing that eastward shift of qpf on to something? How quick will the changeover to snow occur? I still think there is merit to a heavy band of snow developing somewhere in this area that could over achieve and drop 6"+ even though we are only in a Winter Weather Advisory.

ICT mentioned concern with freezing temps possibly lasting into morning commute now. Also, with a few more hours of freezing rain leading to higher amounts, they mentioned possible localized upgrades as they monitor trends. They mentioned the higher qpf amounts could lead to increased runoff which would limit the amount of ice that would accumulate on surfaces. Thus some of those models showing very high ice accumulation being over done. Basically the things to watch are surface temps and qpf. If temps hold in the upper 20's and precip isn't as heavy as predicted it could lead to more significant icing. Will be interesting to monitor trends tonight for sure.

Living on the southeast side of Wichita I've been watching this closely as well. However, my confidence is still very low on getting significant snow here for the reasons you mentioned rockchalk. Going to have to get the negative tilt and the storm to mature quicker in order for us to see that. Then where exactly the deformation zone sets up will be key obviously. Last night's 00Z Euro would be about perfect for me in that shows the system mature and closes off the upper low just in time to see a solid snow here. Having said that, each model run will show something different as this may not be determined until shortly before, or even day of. Update: Just looked at 12Z GFS quickly and without looking at precip output I honestly don't mind the look of the trough orientation and Vort max. Just pattern recognition alone would lead me to think at least somewhere nearby would pick up a decent snow.

Well there certainly seems to be decent agreement from all the major global models for some sort of system in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The GFS, Euro & GEM were all showing some snow as of last night's runs. It has got my attention for maybe the first time this season here in Wichita. I'm now in check the models daily mode and hopefully the trend continues over the next 72 hours. Feels like it's been forever since we had a good snow here.

Had a decent band of snow move through yesterday evening in Wichita, enough to coat the deck white. Low dropped to 19 last night in Wichita one shy of the record 18. Also, while it didn't accumulate, the day before it did snow briefly. The past 3 days the highs were 36, 37 & 42. Pretty crazy for October!

Well here in Wichita, I'm certainly curious to see what the Friday/Saturday time frame can do. Last nights ECWMF run certainly caught my attention. I'm not holding my breath as we have been missed from all sides this year. However, when the Euro says something I typically listen. Still 5 days out though, so we'll see if it remains consistent over the next few days.

Yeah, that was fun to look at. Haha. Even gave those of us up north some fun. It at least piques my interest for the 00z runs tonight to see if they continue coming in hot.

Happy for you folks in Oklahoma with what now looks like a pretty good bet for a substantial winter storm. Looks like I'll have to start looking for the next opportunity for snow here in Wichita. Luckily I never got my hopes up too high for this event when the ECMWF started showing the precip shield staying south days ago. Feels like I've missed just north and now just south with storms so far this year. I have to say I like the pattern that's set up for this winter though.

This is what I have been focused on being here in SC Kansas. My gut feeling has been that the cold dry air would win out here in KS, especially if this passed through as more of an open wave. However, if this comes out more amplified with a closed low at 500mb as the NAM is showing I think that certainly gives us a better shot at meaningful snow. ICT area forecast discussion touched on this last night. I found it interesting that they were actually siding with the GFS more than the ECMWF at the time when I was not. Still late in NAM so I may take this run with a grain of salt but it something I've been looking for. Granted this is slightly outdated I found it interesting. The extended range continues to be dominated by a strong storm system progged to develop to the south. The ECMWF and GEM have moved the system a little further to the north while the GFS continues to keep a similar track and is the furthest north of the three. The main issues with the ECMWF and the GEM continues to be lack of a closed low at 500mb which is inconsistent with the 300mb wind field which strongly supports a closed low at 500mb. The GFS positions this 500mb low in the northern Oklahoma region. This location supports snowfall over much of the CWA Friday and Saturday.

Hey all, been reading this thread for a few years. Finally decided to join and chime in from time to time. While I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as many on here, I received my degree in Geoscience from Mississippi State and also got my (often debated at times) Certificate in Broadcast Meteorology about 4 years ago now. I interned at KWCH and worked with Rodney Price and Ross Jansen on the weekends. Having said that I don't work in the field as I decided to go in a different direction but still have a passion for weather as others here. To be honest I've become rusty and I'm not as sharp as I was 3 or 4 years ago. I just miss talking weather with others and figured I would add on to the conversation from time to time when I have the chance. Oh, I live in Rose Hill, which is just Southeast of Wichita. This is where I got my display name.