RocketWX

I hadn't even looked past this event yet. To think there could be another storm on the heels of this one to track would be crazy. Based on the 3 images you posted there definitely looks to be some good model agreement at this time.

Well we're within 24 hours of this event and if anything it seems this storm has trended up for me here. Conservative 5-8" prediction on snow, but it would not shock me to see reports of some approaching a foot of snow when all is said and done very near by somewhere along the I35 corridor. Multiple models are cranking out QPF totals of over 1" with much of it falling after temps are well below freezing. How quickly the transition from sleet to snow occurs will be the deciding factor as this storm is a quick hitter and it dumps a lot of precip in a short amount of time. Can't say how nice it is to see a classic storm with a system moving up out of the southwest. This moisture is badly needed!

Well, since my previous post last Thursday, all is not yet lost for this upcoming storm. GFS has fairly consistently provided the most QPF from this system, aside from a few runs over the weekend. The GEM has been siding with the Euro for the most part, up until today, which is now showing solid QPF into SC KS falling more in line with GFS. Euro is still sticking to its guns for the most part, shunting the heaviest precip amounts southeast of ICT. I'll be curious to see which models start to cave to the others as we get closer. I'm not taking the NAM into consideration just yet, but for what it's worth, it has heavy precip across the area. I will say the trends seem to have peaked Wichita's NWS office attention, as they are now mentioning the potential of higher impact event in their forecast discussion, but they're not ready to go there in headlines just yet. Understandable with the continued model discrepancy. Would be crazy to have two impactful winter storms within a couple weeks of each other!

Well, snow has finally melted off for the most part from the last snow, but I'm already curious what the next system may have in store. Pretty good agreement among models that there is going to by a fairly potent system middle of next week. While the moisture is certainly needed, I haven't been too excited regarding snow potential here locally. This feels like a NW/NC KS into Nebraska type storm to me when it comes to snow. Unlike the past storm AO index looks to be comfortably positive during this time. However, some of the recent model runs including today's 12Z Euro breathe some life into the potential for more snow. We'll see what happens, but regardless I like the signal for good moisture around this area.

Quick, lock it in! There would be a lot happy folks on here if that came to fruition! If anything it's nice to see models not completely falling apart as we get closer to game time.

Feeling pretty good, surprisingly. Definitely transitioning to a now cast. Will be monitoring temps to see how quickly cold air pushes in. As of now appears a transition to snow occurs around 11p-12a or so here locally. Appears most will see good snow here in SC Ks, with a few lucky folks getting under a heavy band or two to get the higher end of predictions. So will be watching radar trends closely as snow sets in.

Here in Wichita, while I'm confident I'm going to get snow, I can already see how this busts for me locally. Most of our snow, (if not all) appears to come from the first wave and the overrunning event that takes place as the front is moving south. Living just southeast of Wichita, how soon this starts and how quickly this transitions to all snow will be critical in maximizing snow totals. Also, need some luck on where the heavier bands set up. Initially I thought we'd get some additional accumulation from the stronger secondary wave but it appears this largely misses us to the southeast giving ne ok/se ks/sw missouri a good snow. My fear is I get a rather short duration of snow here, and places west of me end up with higher totals because of quicker changeover to all snow, and places south and east of me cash in with the secondary wave. Leaving me in the middle with an underwhelming snow. 12Z Euro shows this and I've seen hints of this in other models as well. Hope not, but I'm preparing myself for it.

Feels like it's been forever since I've been on here. Beyond boring pattern here in ICT lately. At least western ks was able to get some excitement in spots as mentioned above. However, it looks like there is finally something meaningful to watch over the next week. Most models showing at least some type of storm system crossing the southern plains as talked about above. I like that this is backed up by what looks to be the AO dipping to negative or at least neutral around this time. Along with a pattern change from northwest to southwest flow. Details will come, but I think someone on this board gets some meaningful winter precip a week or so from now. Here's to hoping! Regardless of moisture type, the drought in the southern plains continues to expand north and east so I'll take any meaningful moisture we can get!

I'm right there with you on the difficulty of not getting excited. It has been historically slow in regards to severe weather near Wichita over the past year. I think Wichita NWS only issued 1 or 2 tornado warnings in the past year! This could be the first significant threat in this area in quite some time. As you mentioned, the Euro is certainly the more ominous solution as of now. While still a week out, I do find it interesting that all the local forecast discussions have mentioned the "potential" for a robust severe threat, combined with the already outlined 15% risk from Storm Prediction Center. From reading their forecasts they tend to be leaning toward the Euro solution. Just following models more closely the last few days, I'd agree that the GFS seems to be trending toward the Euro more so than the other way around. Early in the game, but I'm excited just to have a potential event to track the next few days!

Man I just looked at the 12Z Euro and I shouldn't have. Probably just getting my hopes up at this point. Still a week out but going to monitor trends closely. Honestly if it even hints at trending towards today's 12Z run it will be a fun week of model watching and potentially prepping for a central/southern plains severe weather event. Just feels like it's been forever since there was anything here in the SC Kansas area. That was quite the model run though!

Whew, bottomed out here at -18.8 on my weather station at 6:30a this morning. Incredible! In regards to this next storm, why does ICT always have to be on the edge?! lol I think I'm leaning toward a non event here but it's going to be a close call. NAM did tick back north a tiny bit but we'll see. I'd be happy with another couple inches just to top this whole 2 week period off.

Sun has broke out and finally jumped above zero. 1.2 degrees on the weather station now. Jumped within the last hour. However, temp will begin crashing shortly. As for the Tuesday storm, I do think it is a subtle difference in how wave ejects. GFS seems to be flatter but is now becoming the outlier as more and more of the HiRes models are coming more in line with the NAM, although maybe not to that extent just yet. Trend is good right now I'd say.

Yeah, seems to be working out where we were socked in clouds all day, then look to clear just in time for sunset. Temps are going to crash here tonight!

Wow, NAM has been pretty consistent pulling that moisture farther north and its holding steady, even more so on this run. Even NAM3k is showing this now, after 12Z run kept moisture southeast of ICT. I started seeing signs from a couple other models trending toward it. That would really cap off a pretty memorable 2 week stretch of winter weather around here!

Have had off and on snow all morning around Wichita as well. Not sure on accumulation since so much snow already on ground, but a guess is 0.5-1". If I recall only models that picked up on this was NAM & RAP but could be mistaken. Has been slowly weakening but very back edge west of Wichita is starting to pick up again, which was actually picked up on the 15Z RAP IIRC. For a moment, it was snowing with sun peaking through clouds which was cool to see.

I never measured but when I went out to get firewood I would say I have a similar amount here at my place. Now watching the temperature crash that is sure to come tonight and tomorrow night. And as you said, on to late Tuesday.

Last 6 runs of the Euro for ICT QPF Totals and what that equates to Kuchera snow totals. These totals are through Tuesday 00z. Interesting to see the formula in play and also how even a tiny difference in qpf can make a big difference for snow totals in these very cold temps. 10/00z 0.4" = 6.8" 10/12z 0.6" = 13.4" 11/00z 0.6" = 12.1" 11/12z 0.4" = 9.7" 12/00z 0.5" = 9.9" 12/12z 0.4."= 9.4"

I'm keeping my expectations pretty tempered here in Wichita until we get a little better consensus on how this trough ejects. The more positive tilt/open wave trend I see would explain the lower qpf projections up into KS. If I'm in Oklahoma I'm feeling good because qpf looks pretty good down there regardless. We need more neutral tilt/better organization to slug that moisture northward up here. We'll see how this Euro run trends.

Oh my, between system #1 and #2 all of northern Oklahoma and southern kansas have over 1" of qpf. I mean...wow what run!

lol in Wichita that first system on Sunday-Monday drops roughly .6-.7in of qpf but snow is falling with single digit temps. Hence the Kuchera ratio spits out 19in of snow. If this happens...wow

Man, this run of cold weather is really something. If this pans out anything like the GFS is saying, (haven't looked as closely on other models) that would be about 2 straight weeks of below freezing! With most days not even close to freezing. Jury is still out on snow potential, but one would have to assume we will have at least few shots of precip. With high ratios we could put down a decent fresh snow pack and really send temps plummeting. Will be a fun few weeks of model watching for sure! I am in Wichita, but obviously this goes for many others on this board.

Just got home after a fun day building a snowman and sledding with the family. Didnt officially measure but I'd estimate around 5" at my house in Rose Hill. (Southeast side of Wichita) Nice to finally get a decent snow around here!

I hear you rockchalk. I live just southeast of Wichita right on the Sedgwick Butler county line and it feels like it's been forever since we've had a snow that completely covered the grass. This has been a fascinating storm to track and I'm hoping it snaps that streak. A few things I'm watching: Are the Hi Res models showing that eastward shift of qpf on to something? How quick will the changeover to snow occur? I still think there is merit to a heavy band of snow developing somewhere in this area that could over achieve and drop 6"+ even though we are only in a Winter Weather Advisory.

ICT mentioned concern with freezing temps possibly lasting into morning commute now. Also, with a few more hours of freezing rain leading to higher amounts, they mentioned possible localized upgrades as they monitor trends. They mentioned the higher qpf amounts could lead to increased runoff which would limit the amount of ice that would accumulate on surfaces. Thus some of those models showing very high ice accumulation being over done. Basically the things to watch are surface temps and qpf. If temps hold in the upper 20's and precip isn't as heavy as predicted it could lead to more significant icing. Will be interesting to monitor trends tonight for sure.

Living on the southeast side of Wichita I've been watching this closely as well. However, my confidence is still very low on getting significant snow here for the reasons you mentioned rockchalk. Going to have to get the negative tilt and the storm to mature quicker in order for us to see that. Then where exactly the deformation zone sets up will be key obviously. Last night's 00Z Euro would be about perfect for me in that shows the system mature and closes off the upper low just in time to see a solid snow here. Having said that, each model run will show something different as this may not be determined until shortly before, or even day of. Update: Just looked at 12Z GFS quickly and without looking at precip output I honestly don't mind the look of the trough orientation and Vort max. Just pattern recognition alone would lead me to think at least somewhere nearby would pick up a decent snow.