RocketWX

Funny you mention this as I was just noticing the same thing and was in the process of posting about it. It's fun to look that the trend of the HRRR & RAP over of the last 12hrs or so. In fact, most recent HRRR now bringing in a healthy band of snow into the ICT area overnight. Will be something to at least monitor now.

I mean that 00Z Euro run...wow. Two storms in the same week with crazy potential.

What a pattern! Received roughly 3" here on the southeast side of Wichita. Borderline freezing temps but still a beautiful snow. As for the Monday storm, agreed with what has been said. Not sure what to think just yet for South Central KS pending track of ULL and when it goes neutral to negative tilt. Right now it seems a bit too late but still could get something out of it. Then yet another system to track next Friday that all models seem to now be picking up on. Haven't had time to dive into models other than a quick look but should be fun to monitor!

Just on the southeast side of Wichita and received roughly 7". One of my favorite snows of all time. Beautiful snow with large flakes and very little wind. Great start to the 2023-2024 winter as the moisture is much appreciated around here.

The end of winter is quickly approaching, and we may actually have our first severe weather threat this Sunday per SPC. I haven't looked in detail at this setup at all yet. Beyond this, we might have one last shot of winter. The AO is currently positive and trending even more positive, but it appears moving into the first few days of March the AO should trend back down to neutral and potentially negative. I think the first week of March could be our last shot to get any winter precip. We'll see how it plays out, but regardless I think there are going to be some pretty hefty systems crossing the middle of the country over the next few weeks. I just hope we can ease this drought in Kansas more than anything before heading into late Spring/Summer.

hmm...ECMWF continuing to hold its ground the second system next week potentially bringing accumulating snow to SC KS. GFS has shown a farther north track. Still too early for any confidence but maybe we'll luck out on one these systems yet. Regardless of precip type, the moisture it appears we'll get from two systems will be welcomed.

Man this would have been a pretty epic snow here had the temps been just a degree or 2 colder. That band of snow set up shop right over SC KS for the past 2 hours but at 33.4deg at my place it just can't accumulate much. Not over yet, but it's always something...I'll take the moisture at least.

You're right that band looks pretty healthy. Should also see some dynamic cooling with the heavier snow as well. Seeing signs of that already, temp down to 33.6 from 34.0 here. Flakes are increasing in size and getting heavier.

Currently a very pretty snow just on the southeast side of Wichita. 34deg on the weather station though, so what's falling is melting.

Been patiently waiting for the northwest shift that seems to always happen with these stronger systems. Models have held steady the past few days, but as mentioned, there may be signs of a last second shift here. It won't be much of a shift, and south and east of here will certainly be the jackpot but South Central KS may sneak out a surprise over achiever. We'll see if the trend continues.

Well I suppose I'll finally chime in after model watching the past couple weeks, watching systems either fall apart once inside the 180hr range or track north of me. Today seems to be first day that all models are starting to align on how this system is going to eject into the plains. Should be fun to monitor over the weekend. At this time, everything seems on the table here in ICT, from a complete miss to the south to one of the better snows we've had in a while. I do like that the track is south at this time, as these tend to trend north when it is a strong system like currently modeled. It wouldn't take much of a shift to get in on some of the higher qpf currently over Oklahoma. Here's to hoping we all cash in some how.

Checking in from Wichita. At 12:30a last night my weather station showed 31.3F. Front blasted through and hasn't stopped falling. Currently sitting at -2.6F in a Snow Squall Warning.

Yeah, that front is no joke. This is going to be wild to watch in real time as it plows south down the plains. There are going to be quite a few inflatable Christmas decorations lost in this wind if folks don't prepare.

Yeah, it would seem models are starting to align in this scenario. Here in ICT, my guess is we're looking an advisory criteria event with the main story being the wind and cold. That said, even a few inches of snow with the wind and temps will make travel very difficult for a time. I'm still holding out a bit of hope this digs and amplifies a bit sooner to pull this back southwest a bit.

Well overall kind of underwhelming, considering folks near by received a very pretty 1-2in of snow. At my place specifically, I managed to pick up a trace and did see flakes fall for the first time. For the 2nd time in 3 years it's snowed before Thanksgiving. I'm not hating the pattern thus far this fall, as there as there are signs we're putting a dent in the drought but a long way to go. We'll see if it continues. Don't see any significant precip as of now through Thanksgiving, but temps look to stay well below normal for the next week.

Yeah, we're now roughly week or so out and models are still hinting at a system with at least some winter precip in the area. I'll at least be monitoring it now as we get closer to possibly see the first flakes of the year fly here in Wichita. A few folks nearby had some snow with the past system. Today's 12Z Euro run actually shows a pretty healthy system with folks getting anywhere from .25 - .5in of precip in Southern KS. Precip type varying depending on location. Something to watch at least.

Well I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit let down by this snow storm based the potential it had. The 00Z models all showed very high snow totals. NWS and local meteorologists all upped snow totals. However, the initial precip moved in quick and was very heavy, but all sleet. Had thundersleet. The changeover to snow didn't happen until 5am or so, and with the storm moving at a pretty good clip, just didn't get heavy enough snowfall rates to reach the predicted totals. All forecasts, ranged from 6-10". All reports I've seen range from 4-5.5" Decent, but short of what most expected here.

I hadn't even looked past this event yet. To think there could be another storm on the heels of this one to track would be crazy. Based on the 3 images you posted there definitely looks to be some good model agreement at this time.

Well we're within 24 hours of this event and if anything it seems this storm has trended up for me here. Conservative 5-8" prediction on snow, but it would not shock me to see reports of some approaching a foot of snow when all is said and done very near by somewhere along the I35 corridor. Multiple models are cranking out QPF totals of over 1" with much of it falling after temps are well below freezing. How quickly the transition from sleet to snow occurs will be the deciding factor as this storm is a quick hitter and it dumps a lot of precip in a short amount of time. Can't say how nice it is to see a classic storm with a system moving up out of the southwest. This moisture is badly needed!

Well, since my previous post last Thursday, all is not yet lost for this upcoming storm. GFS has fairly consistently provided the most QPF from this system, aside from a few runs over the weekend. The GEM has been siding with the Euro for the most part, up until today, which is now showing solid QPF into SC KS falling more in line with GFS. Euro is still sticking to its guns for the most part, shunting the heaviest precip amounts southeast of ICT. I'll be curious to see which models start to cave to the others as we get closer. I'm not taking the NAM into consideration just yet, but for what it's worth, it has heavy precip across the area. I will say the trends seem to have peaked Wichita's NWS office attention, as they are now mentioning the potential of higher impact event in their forecast discussion, but they're not ready to go there in headlines just yet. Understandable with the continued model discrepancy. Would be crazy to have two impactful winter storms within a couple weeks of each other!

Well, snow has finally melted off for the most part from the last snow, but I'm already curious what the next system may have in store. Pretty good agreement among models that there is going to by a fairly potent system middle of next week. While the moisture is certainly needed, I haven't been too excited regarding snow potential here locally. This feels like a NW/NC KS into Nebraska type storm to me when it comes to snow. Unlike the past storm AO index looks to be comfortably positive during this time. However, some of the recent model runs including today's 12Z Euro breathe some life into the potential for more snow. We'll see what happens, but regardless I like the signal for good moisture around this area.

Quick, lock it in! There would be a lot happy folks on here if that came to fruition! If anything it's nice to see models not completely falling apart as we get closer to game time.

Feeling pretty good, surprisingly. Definitely transitioning to a now cast. Will be monitoring temps to see how quickly cold air pushes in. As of now appears a transition to snow occurs around 11p-12a or so here locally. Appears most will see good snow here in SC Ks, with a few lucky folks getting under a heavy band or two to get the higher end of predictions. So will be watching radar trends closely as snow sets in.

Here in Wichita, while I'm confident I'm going to get snow, I can already see how this busts for me locally. Most of our snow, (if not all) appears to come from the first wave and the overrunning event that takes place as the front is moving south. Living just southeast of Wichita, how soon this starts and how quickly this transitions to all snow will be critical in maximizing snow totals. Also, need some luck on where the heavier bands set up. Initially I thought we'd get some additional accumulation from the stronger secondary wave but it appears this largely misses us to the southeast giving ne ok/se ks/sw missouri a good snow. My fear is I get a rather short duration of snow here, and places west of me end up with higher totals because of quicker changeover to all snow, and places south and east of me cash in with the secondary wave. Leaving me in the middle with an underwhelming snow. 12Z Euro shows this and I've seen hints of this in other models as well. Hope not, but I'm preparing myself for it.

Feels like it's been forever since I've been on here. Beyond boring pattern here in ICT lately. At least western ks was able to get some excitement in spots as mentioned above. However, it looks like there is finally something meaningful to watch over the next week. Most models showing at least some type of storm system crossing the southern plains as talked about above. I like that this is backed up by what looks to be the AO dipping to negative or at least neutral around this time. Along with a pattern change from northwest to southwest flow. Details will come, but I think someone on this board gets some meaningful winter precip a week or so from now. Here's to hoping! Regardless of moisture type, the drought in the southern plains continues to expand north and east so I'll take any meaningful moisture we can get!