Scud

You did. But you have the puppies....

And everyone said Amen

Let's give the super computers a little more time....

The potential has been predicated on energy moving out of the Rockies and attivating the stalled frontal boundary NE Gulf. This has left us with a series of surface waves at this point, and any development delayed in the models. What we know. Quasistationary boundary still there. Vortmax could amplify broad 500mb trof. Energy has yet to move ashore from Pacific. When it does the solution will be made clear without forecast propagation next 48hrs. Aside: When we did everything by hand, we used the term "trof." Too old to change....

Because its fun. 850mb isotherms represent forecast thickness of cold air and the enevitable warm nose. That said. We were given permission.

Insitu high pressure on snow pack just north of Maryland is gong to try and set up CAD. Will be short lived, but could give us our favorite ob, 35R-. Temps rise overnight Saturday.(mappy?) Sunday temps mid to upper sixties BWI.

00z: d5 system is now religated to a slight risk SW- with vortmax passage. Surface low never phases except on GFS with 1 inch potential mainly south of BWI. Day 9 system, the good news is the Euro is not sending surface low to Pittsburgh. Looks alot like FV3 with significant snows along, and north and west of I-95 corridor. For your viewing pleasure the d5 depiction and snowfall liguid equalant map in mm.

18z GFS gets d5 system closer to coast. Precip fields not there yet. D9-10 storm, More better.

Better than being suppressed like canned ham...

If it can move that much in one run, it can move again. On to happy hour...

I think we just had a warm frontal passage....

Suitable for framing...

Outstanding...

GFS few SW- with mid level energy d5. D10 storm is no longer heading toward Deluth MN. Heading towards Hatteras. Rather be on the north side in November.

Looks a lot like Euro. Taps Atlantic moisture jus as it is pulling away.

5d tease looks much better on Euro. General 1-3 inches of snow. 10d still there, slight westward wobble.... Ingredients fo 5d showing up nicely on NAM. Cold air heading south and east behind departing Great lakes storm. Mid level energy coming out of southern Rockies. Old frontal boundary NE Gulf. Sweet...

That's why we are calling it the 5D tease....

If I had a dollar for every time I should have ignored myself.......

Sounds good.

A lot better than 00z run.

Ye ol' Gulf Low... Puppy friendly...

Ref: 144-180hr system 12z data: GFS takes low west to buffalo. FV3 takes it south and out to sea, few SW-. CMS tries to bring it up the coast with 1-3 of snow. Hope springs eternal. Now let's see the mcdaddy....

Puppy killer...

More models to go. It ain't over till its over....