JakkelWx

What year during the 2000s and 2010s had the most severe weather during the month of July, and how is that year different from this year in regards to upper air patterns, ENSO, etc

Chesapeake bay shields activated for the cell that was crossing over the bay towards me.

Highest SBCAPE values in a long time, pocket of 4,000 J/kg centered right over me. Forecast has the highest chance of precip late tonight.

Just realized that a storm is passing D.C to the north. I can barely focus after I just had a DFH 120 min

I'm wondering if any surprise storms develop this afternoon, there is a healthy CU field and it looks like they're trying for vertical growth

There seems to be another line forming W of DC. Maybe a repeat of last night's line of storms here?

Pocket of 3000 J/kg of CAPE just to my north. Outflow boundary showing up on satellite from storms that have fizzled to my south.

Low level lapse rates are around 7.5 - 8 here but the mid level lapse rates are meager.

Already a cumulus field popping over my house today. Last night produced far better than I thought it would. It was premature to call this a bust. Today looks like a flooding and a lightning threat.

No SVR watch here yet, and there probably won't be. How lame can these threats get??

Lame... line is going to completely miss to the north here. We drought.

ANOTHER AOI and it's only May 28th. Third one. 30/30. Chances are pretty low for development, and if development occurs, it will likely be subtropical in nature. Can you imagine if Cristobal formed right before June 1st, making it the third named pre-season storm? Either way, possibly a grim sign of what's to come during peak hurricane season. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic. 1. A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

AMATT All March All The Time, except when it isn't AMATT, its AHATT from late May - early October.

Funny excerpt from NWS Houston: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Beyond 240 hours? Why are you asking beyond 240 hours? If beyond 240 hours you go, only pain will you find. Yes, I see what the GFS is doing way out there, and I bring it up for the SOLE. PURPOSE. of being a buzzkill. We are now approaching the time of year when the GFS loves to generate tropical cyclones in the western Gulf out of the Central American Gyre in its extended range. The GFS does this...a lot. Every once in a great while, it happens in real life, too! So, if someone starts buzzing about the hurricane in the Gulf in two weeks, let us all take a deep breath and remember that far more likely than not, this is just the GFS reminding us that it is almost June, and nothing more. Regardless of what one model says about a couple weeks out, it is almost hurricane season, and we should be working on being prepared for anything that may come in the next several months as a matter of course. 25

Memorial day today was absolutely awesome. Had a small BBQ (it's ok, police, it was like 6 people)

17/10/6

Fire up dem bug zappers! Do you have one of these bug zapper light bulb things that you suspend from the porch roof and bugs get attracted to them and get zapped?

BWI: 96F DCA: 97F IAD: 97F RIC: 100F

Pfft. Everybody knows that getting a -NAO during winter is absolutely futile these days. I'm consulting with the reaper @WxWatcher007 for an early booking in the panic room for next winter. Fire up that thread!

It's gotta be an 11 year cycle right? 2009-10 was the last minimum, and 2020-21 is just coming out of the minimum so perfect time to get a february 2010 repeat. Maybe a bootleg 2010 tho as ENSO is gonna be in the la nina phases instead of the el nino during fall-winter of 2009-10.

Does look like easterly flow for the next week. However, as the ULL departs the winds become weak and the strong diurnal heating of late May finally overcomes the bleh airmass and we warm into the 70s and some 80s here and there

Ya never know.. out of all years since the last actual cool summer we've had, this year seems like one of those years where the warm ups keep getting delayed in the LR and we're ending up with a sunny version of easterly flow diarrhea for the next 10 days

I don't know all the details but what I do know is that it suddenly teleported to the Chesapeake bay as a category five storm while we were all asleep. Also, here's leaked satellite footage of multiple cat 5s in quick succession heading towards the mouth of the bay: