JakkelWx

What's wrong with the GFS is the z500 vort setup. You have another NS that messes up the bowling ball causing it to tilt negative too early and it's rain for us here. The CMC doesn't have this problem. The bowling ball stays intact mostly, and doesn't tilt neutral/neg until in the right spot for us. FWIW the CMC and the GFS are both showing the HP in the upper 1030s, but the GFS weakens the arctic high sooner. The low on the CMC is actually even slightly closer, yet it's almost all snow here and points N and W. Big blizzard. Regardless, I think I'll see a correction colder as we get closer to the event. We aren't out of the woods yet - How strong the secondary low or how far north it is in the OHV will determine Ptype - How the z500 vort streams interact, how they tilt, things to watch are if the UL disturbance tilts negative too early - How stacked the low is, as the CMC would have less southerly flow mucking up the mid levels than the GFS All this will determine how many muthafukkas fall

Not good seeing the models are still looking like this and we're only 120 hours out. I'm starting to get worried about this

I'm hugging the CMC

We have something potential showing up on the LR GEFS ensembles

50/50 low, confluence and a 1030s high and it's still rain somehow. I call BS

That is so close to snow here. A one degree tick colder for the Monday system and that means getting an inch or two of wet paste or all rain.

I'm gonna need a serious shovel for the late week system this'll do Hopefully being a debbie downer on purpose will cause the models to continue trending snowier until i'm under a foot 72 hours out

The cold rain on top of the mild rain will make it harder to shovel

Here's your map Enjoy

That's a huge jump. Has me in the 10% for seeing a foot of snow or greater. Probably doesn't mean much, but it's a start

thank god you're not being serious

The 12z CMC run is the most realistic run for this storm imo

Deep Thunder = biggest weenie model there ever was

@DTWXRISK The 18z GFS seems pretty progressive. Do you think the crappy STJ handling in this model plays a role?

lol on the border of all rain and starting as ice.

It will come out 1 hour ago.

Nobody sees that 50/50 low? That's a crazy 50/50 there.. 958 mb of goodness

Yeah I expect the snowfall mean here to go up based on these trends

No

Yeah jebwalking in sideways heavy rain 20 miles south of the rain/snow line sounds like a great jebwalk Snowfall out to 174 on the 12z EPS.

The 12z EPS is still rain here at 138 then at 141 things turn rapidly into a heavy snow. By 144 the precip is exiting. The final grand total is 1 inch of snow

Don't start the thread for the December 20th HECS until the Dec 16th/17th storm is over

December 18th-19th