Save the itchy algae!

@Holston_River_RamblerI don’t know, the wiser person would take the ‘what could go wrong with this’ mindset and work backwards to gain insight.  You got me beat already.  I just measured snow and made a nice presentation.

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Kuchera ratios aren't available for the 6 and 18z runs, but it's probably a good bet that the ratios will be less than 10:1. 

I’m not going to disagree with you and I’ve only been following valley weather/climate  for the last five years or so-I’m no expert.  That said, in previous southern locations I lived I rarely ever had a melted equivalence of less than 10:1.  In fact the lowest I’ve ever gotten is 8:1 and that was in an absolute slopstorm.  Again not arguing but I think 10:1 is fair for most assuming no significant mixing.  

I actually did a project with KSHB when I lived in KC to determine the average ratio for the winter events there in 2006.  The lead met was certain it would be around 10-12:1, it ended up being 18:1 which was significant because he said 20:1 ratios were rare outside of lake/ocean/orographic impacted locations, which KC obviously has none of.    

That said, if a 3” snow falls and the nws logs it as 1.7” like they seem to do here a lot then 15:1 can become 8:1 rather quickly.

Snow and sleet in Farragut.

How do you guys upload pics here? It’s telling me max size is 1.95MB.  That seems small.

I just went back outside and it’s snowing in Powell.

I’m currently off Emory Road by the hospital along 1-75 and the precipitation is very light and appears to be plain rain/showers.  I’m not sure about temperature.

10 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

After being stagnant for hours, my temp is finally dropping a little with the heavier rain.  Currently 37/34 and if RadarScope p-types are accurate the change over is creeping up on Lenoir City.  I'd like to at least see a mix before I call it a night.

Again I’ll be following your overnight updates as I’m stuck in Powell.  

Just rain in Farragut from that band.  Still upper 30’s.

I’m a little concerned about this one.  It feels like cold rain coming in Farragut, not snow.  I hope I’m wrong but I was more confident at this point in the game for the Christmas Eve snow than this one.  

I have a hard time believing the trajectory of the New Years storm as it relates to the 6z gfs.  It’s too far west to be a cutter and too far east to be a 4 corners low.  It has to go much further west or east.  What does it want to be?  We’ll see I suppose but I’m certain it’s not going to go due north from the tx/la coast all the way to Chicago.

Don’t make me break out the CAPS LOCK.

By mid week we will have another significant storm system headed our
way.  Slowed down approach of POPs by 6 hours in the grids, based on
new Euro run with deeper trough and slower movement.  We should have
a classic setup for a 12-18 hour Mountain Wave Wind event centered
right now around Thursday, with the timing differing in models. The
low level winds will be bringing up a lot of moisture, thereby
inducing some instability.  Have kept Thunder out for now, but could
see it possibly getting into southern parts of the area Thursday.

On the back side of this system the colder air could offer another
chance of snow around Thursday night into early Friday.  The overall
scenario is not too different from this White Christmas scenario,
but too early to know about available moisture, how quickly airmass
will cool, and how much lift there will be.  Looks like this precip
will taper off pretty quickly around Friday.

Edit: sorry guys, don’t know why the font is so large.

The 6z GFS has a monster in five days.

31 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I would assume that accumulated on everything.  My measurement was taken on my deck, but my road is a sheet of ice with snow on top as well.  

Good to know, when I left at 9pm the roads were clear in my neck of the woods...wet but otherwise clear I should say.

25 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Added a half inch in 30 minutes, high ratio stuff still going.  24 degrees.

You’re close to where I live in Farragut apparently. I’m stuck at work in Powell, did that snow accumulate on the road or just elevated surfaces and grass?

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

We had a 2” snow last year also.


.

Yeah that was the biggest head fake of the winter last year, it was early and made it seem like we were destined for a good season.

 This season clearly feels different.  

If it’s the same I’m looking at, looks like mrx’s map is still the one they generated early this am.  Their disco still reflects that, I would expect a more thorough update with the 3am product.

I’ve experienced one severe thunderstorm in my six years living in the valley.  It was a drive to get there and it was marginal. This is not the place to be a severe wx nerd—worse than snow.

Flakes mixing in with the drizzle in Farragut.

Seem stuck at 40 with a 37 dew point in Farragut.  Hoping to see some flakes flying at the least today.

2 hours ago, Wurbus said:

GEFS snow mean looked juicy!

How dare you say that and not elaborate! Perma ban for you!

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Hot off the raindancewx press, found it the NE panic room:

"Long term, there is a weak correlation between solar activity (annualized) and min/max of Arctic sea ice extent. So the current (relatively) large extent, plus soon to be rising solar activity both support a -NAO in winter next year. If you annualized solar activity to July-June, each year following the min since 1950 has seen a somewhat to very -NAO in winter."

Is this person suggesting there’s a (relatively) large extent of arctic sea ice? As it stands it looks like we are currently tied roughly with 2011/12 with the lowest extent on record.  That’s extreme relativity there.  Also while we are expected to see increased solar activity it is my understanding that we are also in a century-class minimum so our increasing activity may still resemble low solar output conditions.  
 

sorry to take this off topic, I’m sure it’s a strong correlation but maybe not the best year/conditions to test the strength of it.

4 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

Still hopeful that can pull something out of the magic hat before mid-March here in the Middle TN area but real close to getting the Spring bug here and real close to buttoning up this season and curios whether anyone has any thoughts this far out on next season? 

Just my opinion but I have two thoughts on that.  First is that law of averages would suggest we are due for a good season, or at least a good hitter or two.  And speaking of averages, starting next year the ‘cool’ 80’s drop off the 30 year climate data charts which means we will likely see a change in averages, perhaps skewing more cool since the 90’s and 00’s were so warm.  Oceans will probably continue their warm phases which will continue to skew the ‘global’ temperatures though.

Looks like wet snow starting to mix in here in Farragut.

Not if they think only 1/2-1” will fall.