Sw NC weather

The 0z GEFS has a mean of 4-8 inches for most of WNC it’s been consistently showing more than anything else.

Still quite a bit of variation between models but most show most of WNC getting at least a dusting.

4 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Euro much snowier for mountains 

Definitely better than the past few runs. Makes me feel a little more confident that we will at least see some flakes fly.

Models are all over the place for the Christmas Eve system still, maybe will get a little clarity by Monday.

Just now, wncsnow said:

I have never seen Anafrontal snow here like that.  The mountains are in a good spot though and will cash in on Nwfs

I know it’ll change quite a bit before go time but the way the GFS advertises there a secondary low that rides up that a lot of the moisture back towards us.

12z GFS, After the nw flow snow theres about 6-12 inches for most of WNC. If we hold this look till Monday I’m gonna start getting really excited.

2 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Incoming HAMMER  on GFS.

Boom

Yes sir! That would be some intense snow rates with a lot of wind, with the low coming up thru the Piedmont.

CMC and GFS both show a couple inches for Christmas Eve/ Christmas Day both wanna run another low out of the gulf up the front. If that verifies and we time it up it could be a great Christmas morning.

2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Idk, a 1040 HP sitting on the US/Canada border is pretty dang strong. 

I think he meant the source. A 1040 HP is plenty good enough to work but I don’t think there’s much snow pack it’s coming over to hold the cold air. Correct me if I’m wrong lol.

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Off topic but the 18Z GFS just gave us a white Christmas. 

Slight NW trend and its a 2010 repeat lol. Definitely need to keep an eye on that time frame.

Wow, down to 34 here now it’s falling quickly.

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

I like what GSP put out. The models have kind of been up and down. At least put an advisory up to let everyone know hey things may get dicey. Which they did. If things deteriorate they can always upgrade.  

I agree I think it was a great approach from them. These cad setups are so tricky to forecast. Just go ahead and give everyone a heads up that’s there potential. I’m still shocked they put an advisory up for Macon.

Just now, WxKnurd said:

Nope, no CAD for us. Just a cold rain if it’s a true Wedge setup. 

Same here seen it too many times. Very rarely do we get ice down this way. Usually snow or rain. There’s still a slim possibility of snow happening something like the Canadian showed.

21 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Big run on the 18Z GFS for the mtn counties. Trended toward the 12Z euro. 

It was a fraction away from being a mountain wide snowstorm. 0.5-1” of precip with temps in the mid 30’s. Higher elevations are still able to cash in good this run. Maybe will see a trend to slightly colder.

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

We'll post the GFS this morning for next week, since the euro was nixed yesterday morning. This is through 7 days. Northern mtns score Monday some, then wed into thurs most all mtn locations score. Both ops show 2 waves next week. Trick as always is to get the cold in here. Hopefully the blocking showing up with staying power throughout December has legs. Never know which way the AO/Nao will swing. 

 

Definitely an interesting week coming up. There’s lots of moving pieces, if we can tweak a few little things we’re set for a fun week of tracking.

Maybe I’m wrong but I didn’t see the band that’s in East Tn didn’t show up on any model. Maybe means a little more moisture available.

Just saw a few flurries as I come in. Always good to see snow flying.

Got down to 16 degrees here by far the coldest morning of the season.

Rode up on the mountain above the house and there was a good 5”.

It’s snowing moderately here again my truck is turning white again after I ran it this morning.

Not as much here as you high mountain folks but I’m gonna call it an inch here. Great way to start off the season. Let’s try to do it again Saturday.

Coming down at at a good clip now!

Winter weather advisory just posted here for a dusting - 2” vehicles already white.

A few flakes starting to mix in here.

Temperature is starting to fall here was 41 at 8 now down to 37.