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midatlanticweather

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Posts posted by midatlanticweather

    February Banter 2024

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    With all the squabbling going on I thought I would share these things somewhere:

    Things I think we know and should live by:
    * You cannot jinx with things by what you say or do. It is funny to see the superstitious amongst people who are science minded.. and it can be enjoyable!
    * Your gut feeling has nothing to do with reality
    * Saying absolutes in science is not scientific. We make educated guesses and test it over and over again.
    * Question everything, make good conclusions based on research, but be open to well thought out challenges
    * Even when being challenged by what seems stupid, and it seems ridiculous, do not let emotion override sound research. and always welcome challenges
    * Learn from everything.. that means examine it after it happens! Live, learn, grow!

     

     

    • Like 3

    What Went Wrong in Winter 23-24/Base State/Will It Ever Snow Again??

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    I wish I had better understanding of the dynamics involved. Many times, we had bad luck! At times the temps were a few degrees off. The weird way the Nino activity worked this year was reminiscent of Nina at times. When we were really wet, the cold was not cold enough or not available at all. Lack of Negative NAO combined with the PNA pattern were obvious issues. I mean we know the reality of what transpired, but, as Bob noted, maybe we just got unlucky. If we had a few big systems hit when it was cold, it would have been good. NA snow cover shows it was not just a local issue! When the continent is low on snow cover, we should know we are going to be even more unlucky. I think there were many compounding issues. The additional obvious trend of the boundary being very warm the last several years is no help! I think the warm Atlantic and even the great lakes do not help us when we are marginal, but that maybe just chicken and egg discussion. 

    What also sucked was the poor model outlooks that were usually false and ended up failing miserably!  I will try and read the summary of all the pages in this thread, but I so appreciate the time and energy many put into pattern recognition and other factors. The passion and input are so well appreciated. The squabbling and frustration are painful, but, if we can agree that we are all trying to understand and grow in knowledge, it would be good. Personal attacks and stupid comments just are no fun. Emotion and pride make it worse, especially ignorant rants with limited support. 

     

     

    • Like 2
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