SnowtoRain

Agreed. The 0z fv3 hi-res looks intriguing, for what that is worth at this range or any range

I put in our southern md subforum their rationale.

Just read Mount Hollys forecast discussion, they are banking on high ratios to get to the 12 to 18" they show on their current snow map. A lot of caveats in the discussion for our region regarding lower potential totals due to rain and mixing, so their current map is basically best case scenario.

I would be interested to know what they are looking at to make that prediction. I haven't seen the midshore above 12" on any model run recently.

High 54.3, currently 36.7

Yeah, last year's events were near perfect.

Gross, we need the rain though. Based on the Euro and GFS trends I think we know where this is headed now. Marginal warning level event, better odds to be on the low end of the guidance.

Euro gets most of us above freezing for a period, everything else the same. 4 to 8" snow, to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain briefly. GFS is similar but stays a bit colder. @CAPEand @csnavywx, you all seeing anything different?

NAM and RGEM have a nice front end but then again mesos at range don't really mean too much

Euro said break out your ice skates. Looks like we are in for a text book Delmarvalicious winter event, 4 to 8" followed by unforgiving sleet and freezing rain. Its been awhile. We have been lucky recently to have some nice pure powder events so time to enjoy this storm and every winter p-type possible.

Just pulls us right back in. 0z tonight should set expectations

Mix line well south and east of Cambridge...too bad tomorrow is Thursday and not Saturday

I would give it until 0z tonight when more data is in to completely write off this event.

Pointing more towards a climo based storm. Not sure if I buy >.5" of freezing rain the Euro wants to give the midshore. GFS has been showing the typical subsidence that sets up over the Eastern Shore. Sounds like from NOAA discussion in the main thread they are still waiting to verify the north trend with better data, so we wait. Perhaps this evening we can start getting a better handle on potential amounts and p-type.

Low of 12

0z runs not as favorable for us on the Delmarva, by this time tomorrow we should know more or less where we stand.

17.8, dew of 8.7

With any of these bigger storms I always get flashbacks to the January 2016 storm, nice front end thump, going to bed with heavy snow falling and over 8" on the ground. Then waking up in a panic because of the sound of torrential rain. I had not shoveled anything yet and there is a drain near the back door that stops water from getting into the house that needed to be cleared. So I half awake stumble out the back door to be greeted to the most hellaciously heavy sleet I have ever seen. Ended up with 10" of snow, 2" of sleet on top of that and then 1" of snow to cap it off from the all day flurries we got while the western shore was beaten down with heavy snow. I learned from that storm never trust the deformation band will eventually make it to the Eastern Shore because by the time it does the storm is pulling away and that band is long gone. Also, as nice as it is to have a detached garage behind the house, it is hell to dig out. Probably one of my least favorite major snow events...

20.5, still some snow on the ground

Yeah, if it is still looking good at the end of Weds I will get invested. Getting any substantial precipitation this past year has been tough.

16

Ended up with around .5 to .75, bottom layer was ice.

Somewhere between 0.5 and 0.75" in Easton

31.5, light snow about 0.25", paved surface are quite slick

31.5 light snow, about 0.25"