TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

*Yawns in snowless*

Blanking is the new norm in most of NC. NC has become like SC and GA used to be for snow. Those places are becoming like N FL.

You know it is going to be a bad winter for us snow lovers when even the mountains are struggling to get enough cold air in place for a good snowstorm. Moved up here in Raleigh in 2019 and so far it has been underwhelming. Grew up in Fayetteville, so I am used to blanking some years, but no good storms since returning back to central NC.

Long range is filled with plenty of cold rain opportunities. Cold air is non existent outside of the mountains. Lots of energy but a lack of artic air. No fantasy storms, as we approach the new year. Models show the mountains have the best chance to score going into mid January.

I got a shoulder to cry on 

Just a few more adjustments and Ohio will be winning this one. Congrats Midwest folks  Join me in the Sanitarium tomorrow afternoon for a song and dance routine.

If I was in the mountains I would be excited for this one. Everyone else, see ya in the Sanitarium this weekend

Icon says what storm. Well, that didn't last long. This season has been horrible along the east coast in general. Weird winter season. 

GFS further amped and west. Like a bad horror movie that keeps repeating. Ohio by Wed night? Any takers?

Who wants to bet against the Euro? Temps on CMC and Euro do not support snow. 

CMC says NOPE

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

@Grayman@TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

Hows the water in here y’all? I’m back 

Cliffs looking great for a steep dive. Winters here have sucked in the last 4 seasons. 

Worst winter in NC history incoming. 

19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Euro looks more like winter cancel (more like d.o.a.) 

Guess who will be right here. For 4 years, you can guess winter cancel will be right and almost always come out on top. 

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If the EURO solution tor the 26th verified and we (central NC) rained with that track and strength of LP, go ahead and hang it up for the winter 

Don't get your hopes up. Winters here have been slowly moving towards mass pain. Just ignore models that show snow and hug ones that don't. 

2 hours ago, JoshM said:

i turned the sign to closed and then shit like this pops up

 

 

Keep that sign handy. GFS has been striking out on phantoms all winter long so far. 

2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

EPS still has "activity" around 27-30 timeframe...something to watch at least.

Just wait for another run or two. It will show the torch. NC Winters and the south in general have gotten worse lately. Models are not even showing phantom stuff for us, or heck, the NE coastline. Climate change.

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Today's GEFS based forecast for day 14 has slight improvements vs yesterday's forecast from the perspective of someone who prefers that a colder pattern return in late January:

- gets back to a weak +PNA after a -PNA that starts ~1/15

- AO rises to neutral but then falls back to moderately negative; very strong Dec -AO favors sub -1 AO in January. To have a good shot at that, a mainly sub -1 will likely be needed for 1/22-31

- The current moderate to strong +NAO falls back toward neutral

 Regardless of whether or not a BN dominated period returns at some point during the last 10 days of the month, January will almost certainly end up quite a mild month for the SE as a whole and much of the E US. It has a good shot at being one of the warmest nationwide since 1950 from a population weighted heating degree perspective. So, a near normal Dec and a mild January in the SE US. What will February bring? That's the big question. Any educated guesses?

 

Flowers blooming and birds singing. February? Nah, early May more like it. 

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It's like 1,000 miles north of the Euro. I wouldn't expect anything from that track 

How much you want to bet that the GFS is right this time due to it showing nothing for much of the south haha.

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Could be January will be our above normal month this season and February will be our below normal month or we just get above normal through all the season. 

The latter. Winters have become even worse for snow lovers in NC and the south in general. 

16 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

You will be back in here .... as soon as there is a winter storm thread.

In the winter of 2023-2024, yes haha

Winter 2023-2024 looks promising because it has not used up all its energy yet. See yall in late 2023

53 minutes ago, bess said:

As much as i want to give up on it… i cant… christmas 2010 storm still reminds me of why you never give up…


.

It's over, and I have a shoulder to cry on. This winter will probably be just like the last 3 here in central NC. Mostly above normal temps and a small snow storm may be squeezed in. Models showing the torch after this. See you guys in February.

GEFS trending good or bad? Anyone know?

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

It still isn't close

Slight wiggles SE the last 3 runs. Could help the mountain folks and western NC, SC, and N GA cash out on a few inches.