TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

Just now, WXNewton said:

Overall 18z GEFS brings more precip to the entire area when compared to 12z GEFS the trend is pretty clear.

Can you share the temp trends during that time?

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

Dude, go learn like we all have had to do and stop posting. 

I asked for an educated view of why I am wrong. I didn't attack or get disruptive. I asked a legit question. Answer it and show me where I am wrong so I can learn. 

1 minute ago, msuwx said:

 

Just a big bowl of no. 

Show me the increase from GEFS 12z to 18z. Educate me. Looks like a sharper cutoff to the NW to me. 

GEFS pushed snow totals further NW, following OP on showing less snow overall for most in the SE. 

Looks like the low is further NW and close to cutting through the apps before transfer to coast. This is almost time to throw in the towel for everyone outside the mountains or upper Mid Atlantic.

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

12Z Euro isn't gonna be that good. To much positive tilt 

Ah, there it is. Someone start the thread now. It is a "positive" tilt. 

Just a few more runs and this is likely to be an all cold rain event. Wild swings though for sure. 

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

 I don’t even know what this means. No models show an apps runner.

No other models show an apps runner..........yet.

7 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

A half+ inch of freezing rain is a disaster. I’d rather we have no storm at all.

Will be a cold rain in a few runs

The models showing that no matter which way you spin it, decent snowstorms in the Carolinas have become more and more difficult to produce. It seems like it is nearly impossible for the right ingredients to match up. Without ensemble support, or consistent OP support, this is likely another coulda shoulda woulda been storm 20 years ago. Expect warmer trends to a cold rain for most or a suppressed look soon. 

48 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro op looked like a mess for next weekend 

Cold air is lacking big time there. What did the EPS look like?

3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Would really like to get back to southern slider solutions. That is a mid-atlantic storm. 

Yep, and that is not a trend we want to see continue in NC, south. VA is still very much in play with either option.

Sleet in Garner

Canadian model is much warmer than the previous run, out to hour 162. Snow is almost non-existent on the map for the south/SE.

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like lots of mixing for Wake County, NC. Very sharp cutoff with the snow amounts. Glad I am in the very northern part of the county.

Cold air will be an issue. People have mentioned that the models actually have a cold bias. Yikes.

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

To prove your point, the 6 z Euro is missed the phase entirely 

Which kind of proves the point, either the system will have plenty of moisture with no cold (phase) or it will lack moisture but be somewhat cold. There is no true sweet spot to be found, as far as the models see it.

Just now, suzook said:

Confused about the negativity. The storm is still there, and there is cold too. Not record breaking, but we have 2 ingredients for snow. Yes, there will be some members here disappointed, but I think a decent amount will be happy.

If the majority of members live in Northern Virginia then I agree. Maybe some hope for the mountains. However, mixing issues even in western NC is usually not a good sign for much of the southeast. 

1 hour ago, CentralNC said:

Yes, it certainly is.  And yet fantasy storms is all we have.

Yep, and this is the new norm for much of the southeast. So, look ahead a week and a half, it is all we will have. The models are starting to look the same way they did for the storm today for the 10th/11th system. Kicking the can to fab Feb. This storm on Friday simply doesn't have enough cold air and the models are showing that. 

14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Can we please bifurcate the climate change discussion from forecasting? There’s a whole forum for the former. Thanks.

Isn't mentioning climate change a part of forecasting? Isn't previous analogues to be discussed for set ups and potential impacts? Isn't climate change a potential to change that discussion. We cannot just say that this happened this way in the past so expect this now if the climate is altered to a different state? So, it is worth bringing up as a wrench in forecasts based on previous expectations when models show something we used to see as a positive sign.

19 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I never thought it would be this bad. We could easily have to wait for year 4

 

Could this just be the new normal? I feel like the climates have shifted NC to a climate similar to SC winters of old. Virginia is more like NC used to be. Snow line and cold winters have shifted north. 

I just don't see how we score here. We went from cold enough to not cold enough for many in a run. A few more runs like that and we may be talking about severe weather here in the SE. Either it will be suppressed and cold enough, or models say it will be stronger and warmer. Story of the past 4 to 5 years here in the SE for many. These are the type of events we used to cash in on. 

GFS is also quicker than its previous run. Something to keep an eye on. 

Just now, BooneWX said:

Overrunning setup on GFS

This is actually the best it has looked in some time set up wise. Now let's see if trends pull it in!

Will be ready to make cold rain angels with the girls on Monday and we will make dead grass angels next weekend. Fun times ahead.