TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

GFS looks slightly different tonight. Maybe I am just seeing things. 

GFS caves and it is game over. Maybe in 2024?

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

What would it take to get a widespread snowstorm around the NC area?

An act of God :+)

I moved up to the Raleigh area in 2019. Been mostly meh since. Blame me.

GEFS shifted totals quite a bit NW, towards the mountains. 

A few more NW trends and Minnesota/Illinois are in the game. 

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Who wants to place wagers as to what they think 18z GFS looks like?

It will likely continue the NW trend, closer to the CMC

CMC is into the Great Lakes, lol

A few more NW shifts and Kentucky and Ohio will jackpot.

17 minutes ago, christopher58 said:

Look Guys you have soldiers all line up. Placement is the key for weather zones. This is going windshield effect for many days. I lived through many times living in north east. Never get to high or to low with the models runs.

One thing I have noticed over the years of model watching. Once the models start trending away from snow over a day's worth of runs, it almost never comes back to snowy solutions. Same cannot be said for the reverse. 

GEFS has backed off, CMC and ECMWF are not on board. Time will tell. We still have time for this to go either way. Safe bet on nothing from northern VA, south.

GFS is on an island though

We all know the rules in most of NC. Wet cold rain, or dry and terribly cold are safe bets until proven otherwise. Models see this when they get closer in. 

3 hours ago, RT1980 said:

Did it snow in Raleigh this year?  Asking for a friend!

Nah, not really. 3 years below average. 

Spring time is in the air according to the 0z GFS

RAH

10 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Yeah in May.

Now, that was the point

Spring is coming

27 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I mean, clearly the data that was shown is tangible and objective.

There are probably times in life when the recorded data can allow someone to not just "stick with it" because that's what they heard. But you do you.

I will trust the experts until they change their statistical standards. You keep trusting who you want, more power to you.

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

Just want to point out that the bolded text is literally how humanity keeps finding itself in terrible situations 

So, not trusting a random person on the internet over experts is why people keep getting into crappy situations. Got ya.

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

What do they have for NC?

You know the answer here. Nada.

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

The average is somewhere between 5.1 and 5.2 inches, depending on whether or not you include years that just have a trace.

That's true but that isn't really that extraordinary.  Looking at the period 1990- 2020, we had 

• Five years in a row below average (1990-1991 through 1994-1995)
• Four years in a row below average (2004-2005 through 2007 - 2008)
• Three years in a row below average (1996-1997 through 1998 - 1999)
• Of the 1990's 8 out of 10 years were below average

The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. 

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I found the numbers and crunched them.  The RDU 30 mean for snow is 5.13 inches.  The median is only 2.5 inches.  So we are already above the median.  

60% of years (18 of 30) during this period were below the mean.  And if we didn't get any more snow it would only be the third consecutive year below the mean.  2018 - 2019 was well above the mean: 8.9 "

 

The average is 6 inches period. We are currently at half that. If we get no more snow this winter it will be 3 years in a row below the average. No other way to spin it really. Still plenty of time no doubt but will we get there?

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

0.3" here

0.5 here

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The majority of years are below average at RDU when it comes to snow.  

4 in a row?

Another winter with RDU below average in snowfall?