SnowGolfBro

I’m telling you that this kind of arrangement can only work for about 90 days or so before real, devastating problems start to take shape in the banking, mortgage and bond markets. The proposition you are proposing is not a long term solution. Just saying you can freeze everything without consequences is not an accurate statement.

this is largely being done. Utilities are not shutting off service for nonpayment at least where i live. Mortgage banks are allowing payments to be missed in the short term. Interest still accrues. But this can only last about 90 days. The bond holders need to be paid and banks only have so much liquidity on their balance sheets. If the mortgage bond market crashes the pain inflicted will be catastrophic.

I was talking to my sister who is a nurse at Stanford University. I take her opinions seriously as she is on the front lines and very knowledgeable. One thing she mentioned is that cold and flu season comes to a pretty abrupt end in a couple weeks. We don’t know how how Covid will react because it’s new and we don’t know what we don’t know. But she sounded confident that things are getting better there and she feels like this factor is being overlooked. If (an unknown at the this point) the virus follows suit with other viruses we could see a pretty dramatic positive shift over the coming weeks.

Just having some fun with that one. At some point we are all going to have to try what GA is trying. And somebody has to go first. We will all be watching closely.

I don’t think anyone in GA is required to leave their home. If a GA resident is concerned they can go to the store tonight, buy a months worth of supplies and wait it out. And I’m sure there are people doing just that right now. Imagine this scenario: Medical professionals in GA agree that everyone should leave their homes and attend a mass gathering to help for whatever reason (obviously not reality). Would anyone support the government dragging people from their homes to attend the gatherings? I seriously doubt it even if the consensus was it was the right thing to do. But we are all to happy to tell people to stay in their homes.

Using my office as an example. My guess u would have to reserve a seat in the office via our reservation software and that would be limited to whatever level was deemed appropriate. Some people are permanent office dwellers (me for example) so we would probably get priority.

I’d imagine private sector businesses will offer telework anywhere possible for a few months regardless of guidelines be loosened.

This a great argument for Federalism. I mean let’s say it goes sideways in GA/other locales opening up now. That will be tragic. But imagine if it was the Federal Governments call to make the decision for the whole country. That would be a disaster. I’m hoping for the best in GA.

Just out of curiosity, if GA starts opening businesses and in a few weeks there aren’t any jumps in cases/deaths would you advocate for most everywhere (maybe minus NYC, NJ) to do the same?

Have we done nothing? Are 30+ days of lockdowns, 10s of millions of lost jobs, closed schools, and so on showing no compassion? We can’t know what would have happened if we did nothing. I agree that these measures had a positive effect on hospitals not getting overflowed. But i can’t prove that either. But the compassion needs to go both ways. I have compassion for the laid off employees, the kids missing school, those suffering depression or domestic violence due to our “compassion”.

I agree that certain businesses may open up to less traffic. But businesses fail all the time because people decide not to show up and use their services. If businesses are allowed to operate freely and they go out of business because people don’t come, then so be it. But i actually think many will be shocked at how many people will go to malls, restaurants, vacation spots, etc when given the choice to do so.

This is well written and well thought out. And helps articulate my position that mid May is kind of going to be the tipping point barring any serious relaxation of lockdown policies. People’s lives are being destroyed every day by the response to Covid. At some point this will reach a breaking point which i surmise is about 3 weeks.

I agree to a certain extent. It is political oppression if the government does not allow you to have basic freedoms. Whether it is justified in the short term is certainly up for debate. If places are well on their way to opening up and undoing restrictions by mid May then my prediction is mostly a moot point.

I’m making a prediction based on the evidence i see. I think by May 15 the majority of the people in this country will be in support of easing/ending the lockdown in their particular area. I’m not saying that is right or wrong because i don’t know where we will be on May 15 as far as the virus goes. If Fauci or other local Heath officials say we need to have lockdown policies for 6 more months then there “trust” polling will be in the gutter. Not because they aren’t giving their honest opinion, but because there are other factors that people are weighing.

You may not, but the politicians do. If they feel that the political risks of “shutdown policy” are unpopular they will switch their positions. That’s not a R or D thing, that is an every politician at every level thing.

IMO it’s more a matter of time than totally political. Most people in mid March were scared and willing to go along with the lockdown measures with only a few stragglers. Now it’s mid April. Still a majority of people willing to go along, but many more people in the “end the lockdown category”. When we get to mid May i think a majority of people will more or less agree with the non political portion of the protests. Which seems to be end the lockdowns. At the very least people will want to see the incremental steps of loosening the lockdown policies in most places.

What do they think is a sham? The virus or the removal of their liberties? If u live in a place without a lot of Covid 19 and don’t know anyone directly or indirectly who has the disease, how long should u stay quiet and remain locked down? A week, a month, a year, indefinitely? Not trying to stir the pot, but i can see how someone that lives in a place largely unaffected by the virus would start to question the lockdown policies. The same way i can see the opposite viewpoint if u are living in community ravaged by the virus.

I will pray for them too

Still hoping for warm weather helping. Warm weather won’t stop the spread altogether. But more time outside of enclosed spaces and more vitamin D will help strengthen immune systems at the very least.

I never understood the closing of golf courses. And if it wasn’t for outside pressure i think the PGA tour could be playing events with no fans right now. If anybody knows die hard golfers, we would happily risk a life threatening virus to play golf lol.

Golf will be back in June. Individual sports will be the first to get going again. Then outdoor sports like football. The indoor sports will take the longest IMO

I didn’t go to MIT but I’m not sure you need a study prove that a dirty public transit system makes it easier for a contagious virus to spread more quickly

I have a forum wide poll question. If we tested every American today for Covid 19 (or if they have the antibody) how many people do you suppose would test positive? I will start. I think the number would be at least 10 million.

I think it’s a matter of doing the cost benefit analysis (which is not a fun analysis to do when dealing with life and death) to determine which scenario causes more hardship and death. If i have a model that shows An additional 100k deaths from Covid if we don’t have a full shutdown for 3 more months and there is no other considerations i think most people would be on board. But if we then contrast that to a model that shows 60 million lost jobs and several hundred thousand Premature deaths due to the economic and societal disruption of the shutdown, then what do you do? And the other murky thing is these are just models. They may or may not be close to reality. We had a model that showed 2.2 million deaths in America a month ago that was considered serious at the time. Economic models can have flaws too. Another consideration is the death and hardship from the shutdowns will not just come for the sick and elderly. A ton of factors to consider. It’s a complex problem and we need to try to find the optimal solution. And it’s likely the optimal solution will still include a lot of death sadly.

Even those of us that support a quicker return to normal life are not suggesting that people that are particularly vulnerable should just throw caution to the wind. If u are elderly with a comorbidity or extremely over weight then you need to make the decision to self quarantine until you feel safe. And we should come together as a society to assist those people wherever possible. For example, if the Wizards or Caps had games coming up with fans i would go and feel comfortable. But i can see why those at risk would avoid those situations.