PB COLTS NECK NJ

There`s a SE ridge ? There`s a western Trough ? huh

Most had a warm Dec. Jan / Feb/ 1st half of March winter

You would be in the Null p by day 9 if this is correct , but keep in mind you had a Strat Warm. It is going to be a player in the pattern , this is not December.

This has done very well The MJO has been the driver but getting stuck in p5 for 2 weeks pre strat warm is a lot different than a muted 4- 5 with a vortex over H/B and rolling SE. I saw the east risk last week for this weekends system and that was right ,but I do see the W risk here with the WAR sitting out there. I just want to get closer , I think there`s a lot of good stuff in front of us tho.

That 5SD was silly. We may head across towards 5 , but if you look at the RIMM plots , you are closer to a sub 1 SD p4 and by that with time the lag out of the null phase which may be allowing other drivers to be in charge at d9. We can always cut , and although I posted the redevelopment of the EPS , there is a primary that goes into the OHV 1st . If that gets N of 40 then the coast is toast. At 9 days I need to see if the - EPO is real in front of it before I make a forecast.

Always a chance that these are wrong , but you have to use the ensembles 9 days out

A completely toasted December will do that.

Careful with the RIMM plots they have been awful over the last few weeks , secondly a very muted p of the MJO may be fighting the effects of a S/W with the vortex moving SE out of HB at the time. The EPS isn`t a cutter , it take a center to the OHV and redevelops it off the Delmarva , the GEFS mean if off to your east and is cold. It is 9 days away and I would seriously wait a few days before anyone jumps. The winter has sckkkd so missing another one would hurt I get it , but patience with this one.

You`re not in p5 in 9 days.

The pattern flip started today ( the 10th has been opined on in here and the source region has changed , so that looks like it will work). As I said last week the risk for this weekends system was East of us not West. I agree with the above , that`s not cutting. The 2 dates I posted in here 7 days ago were the 13th and 20th - the 13th heads off to our S and the confluence and placement of the TPV in Canada wins out. But that was always an option. We aren`t getting a big cutter and that TPV is on the move as - 50 air is showing up in E Canada in the L/R. We are heading into a very cold period ( colder the deeper we go ) . But a " pattern change " doesn`t mean it has to snow. BN`s have now returning and the 19 - 23 period is the next favorable period for a system in the area. But I would caution that not every good pattern produces snow , cold and dry is always an option , however one thing is evident warm and wet are over for the time being.

The EPS just lept into the GEFS camp...

The Euro took a big step towards the GFS and away from the UKIE

See the 12z GEFS

These have been preforming the best

The pattern change around the 10th is on target. Accumulating snow is likely for some Sun/ Mon . Not sure how much but I believe you will see some snow that is able to make it out of the S branch into very cold air which should accumulate. If you phase ( then it`s more snow ) , but right now I think there will be enough out of the S branch alone to make it this far N. There is no moderation on the Euro at all.

Good patterns at 500 don`t have to produce snow. Always a risk. El Nino - so we should get some S stream action tho.

It`s not so much the " look " , it`s not everything at 18k that appears red is a warm ridge. That`s cold HP Brian extending out of E Canada. Look underneath you are BN at 2m

lol / horrible analysis

March is the New December.

EVERY storm since mid DEC shifted N , so I feel your pain. The only thing I kept alluding too away was that being in p5 the ridging should have been expected. Now I think the error is east once past the 12th or so . We will see I think the risk here is east not west this time in the L/R. I agree let`s circle back in 5 days.

Plenty of time to sort it.

Chris , the corrections began at 12 z yesterday post d10 , so I think you are looking at a different 500 evolving here. I think you are going to see this continue in that direction as the MJO continues thru p8 I always like to wait until we are inside 5 days before I even look at E/C storms , but I think this is pretty good look off OBX

Is the GEFF is embarrassing itself too ? Guys , wake up the warm up is ending.

The corrections are post Jan 10. Look at what is waiting for the system after the 10th on the EPS, Then both the GEFS and Euro OP dive this that NEG off the WC and drive the ridge between Boise and Montana The PAC is slower here and that SW never makes into the 4 Corners. The 9th had this in front of it Again the 13th will have this out ahead of it. Pre game / Night and Day

You `re in p8 so the ridging in the SE is gone as the NEG is diving off the W/C and not into the 4 corners.