PB COLTS NECK NJ

I fixed your post.

If we do the grand tour into 7 /8 / 1 with amplitude , the month of December should end up cold and snowy. As it is starting with the back few days of November into the 1st 10 days or so should feature a major E/C storm. Prob 2 legit shots before the 15th.

JMA week 3 and 4

Chris , This was it`s 3rd correction so far by the EPS in the last 15 days. The EPS is the king in the EP region , but it has been terrible under the ridge / block so far this November. Last week someone on here said , " the cold now looks like only 3 days long " , I thought that was wrong and was using the GEFS at 500 , it handled the Scan ridge better early on. The EPS will now bust 3 times in this pattern now and the reason is it did not understand the Scandinavian ridge and the effects underneath in the N/E . Now as it migrates to Greenland around 10 day it`s warm period between day 9 -14 look wrong. I posted this earlier away , Once again the EPS will bust here. So far I have seen the Euro not grasp the strength of the Scandinavian ridge with its result underneath east of the Mississippi. But to make matters worse you are now going to center the positive during this period over Greenland and it continues the 5 day torch theme. The GEFS has been better and will beat the Euro again Now once past day 12 , things will really begin to get interesting at the end of the month through Dec 10 with regards to this set up. Look out after from week 3 on for something major along the E/C. The upcoming period as these anomalies relax screams look out. I am curious as to when the last time the NAO/AO both achieved a -4 / -5 SB BN ? I want to say Boxing Day , but maybe UNC or DON could help out here.

Here`s another one for you all. The period to watch will be between Nov 27th - Dec 15th where more than 1 snow event is possible. This is 500 mb map for a period that many here remember and this is what the models are now seeing.

Gotta love this at 500

Can`t ask for better,

People laughed at DT`s 200 % of N forecast , I don`t think he`s going to be very far off. I want to include another analog year here . 02/03 49.3 inches - 191 % of N This is why I am at 50 inches + for the season and I know Don is too.

The Euro splits the cold into 2 - 3 day periods is because it cuts LP. The GFS is off to the east so the BN registers for 7 straight days. Even so , the EURO is not 1 to 2 days

What model does that ?

Good Afternoon Don it`s great to see you. Coming from you a 50 inch forecast deserves a wow. My range for NYC is between 40 - 50 inches which really would qualify as a great winter. I think the way things a progressing as well , Modoki / EP water temps / the cool water in the I/O and just the fact that the MJO has been really only coming out in 8 1 2 really since AUG it is my hope that it remains there. It is my hope we just stay in here going forward

Another week or 2 I believe.

Chirs , It`s why I a really like the winter at this range , the Euro sees the massive -EPO in the means with blocking over the top. I posted the D- F seasonal 500 `s and they are supported by the Modoki and warm waters S of the Aleutians. If you place that in the E/P and the values say that looks right then you are going to force the ridge over the top. I believe the values rival 02 at this point ? So it looks like 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15. I like a fast starting Dec , a pull back in Jan and then a really good Feb / March. Saw posted a mix of Dec 63 / 95 at 500 away vs the Euro seasonal s at 500 , if you ever blended the 2 , I think people would take it.

A little heads up for those in the interior and all the way into New England your seasons 1st snowstorm is on the way next week.

The 500`s are great in fact , I ignore all 2m , that`s not where the skill is at all. If you dig that kind of negative out near the Aleutians in the means you will dig a trough into the east and you will be humming this winter. The Euro`s greatest skill score is in the E/P and it tends to wash out troughs in the L/R on the E/C. If you drive a neg EPO in the means like that you will drive the ridge poleward and you will slide HP down the midsection and east. I love Dec/ Feb/ March. Big winter incoming for us.

Here is it`s new week 2 forecast , this will bust worse than last weeks week 2. It`s not just the weeklies Every model sees what`s coming before we moderate.

Why you should never ever use the CFS for anything. Here is it`s miss from 1 week out.

Will have to see if the back 5 erase the front 3.

Grit , you`re likely to get stuck in here for the next 4 months , it`s what the Euro seasonal sees. The Trough will end up in the east in the means D - F There isn`t much that point away from this solution, anyone in the lakes SE/MA/NE should get ready to enjoy 02/03- 13/14- 14/15.

My analogs this winter have been 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15. Just look at where we have been stuck since AUG It is very hard for me to find anything wrong so far. The Euro seasonal runs the table and the PAC says it has merit.

The next 3 days are AN then this is what follows.

The new Euro Seasonal makes that it`s 3 month focal point.

Last nights storms lasted a full 90 minutes and in terms of duration of lighting , it ranks as one of the best for me here in Monmouth County. There were tons of road crews out this morning putting the place back together. It wasn`t the most extreme/vicious in terms of close strikes but from a longevity aspect , it was more than anyone could ask for.

Wrote this away. Meaningful changes will begin to occur by day 15. Ridging is going up through AK , the EPO goes negative and the WPO remains negative so it just feeds Arctic air off the Asian continent into Canada. Take that 3 days from here ( 500 posted ) and I believe the trough is back in the east. So when that trough does come east will be filled with stable cold Arctic air. I like closing up W Canada and if the day 15 500 mb look is feedback over the Rockies then the ridge in the east will be already weaker by day 15. Feb 5 ish is still my call.