PB COLTS NECK NJ

The PAC is no longer unfavorable after the 10th. You shut off the flow here in W Canada and driving the ridge thru Montana. These SW`s are all going to start shifting colder. Different regime after the 12th +

Yeh Don , the alterations between yesterday`s 0z ( which the weeklies were run off ) and it`s 12z were very notable. 1st yesterday at 12z the EPS finally kicked the trough out of AK which has been pinned there for a month. It has corrected towards the GFS in terms of amplitude in p7 and then is correct taking into p8 as seen below Both have struggled with the MJO in the RIMM plots as last week the GFS was absurd with 5 SD p7 , but the Euro was just as bad as it took into the NULL p. The correction was a blend of the 2. What spooked a lot of people was the insistence by the EPS that the ridge would reside over the OHV thru the 18th or so , but now that has since corrected . Not sure who or what snows by mid month ( it`s Jan so you just need N and a shortening of wave lengths for that to happen ). What I like are the alterations 2 runs in a row as I believe you will continue to see a correction to the better look at 500 sooner not later.

lol, no

I continue to like the period opined above , you can see the EPS looks even better to start off the period. The old 10 -15 The new day 5 - 10 PV-Forecast‏ @Forecas55175638 6h6 hours ago More The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -7.0 m/s 1985 Last night the weeklies were very cold through all of Feb starting in week 3 , but keep in mind that they were run off yesterdays 0z run which really corrected at 12z , so the speed at which this turns will be quicker. So I continue to like the 10th as the start of ( the core comes after ) a pretty good winter period.

Always Possible. Cold does not always beget snow , especially when the vortex presses in. You may have to deal with cold and dry for a bit , but there should be chances when the vortex slightly releases that you will get your heights to rise in the east. I will take my chances and build HP through H/B down into the N/E and see what comes of it.

Solid. So this looks really good

And here is it`s new MJO which now takes it into P8. ( Yesterday`s wanted to take it into the Null ) . So it looks like it wants to come around to where the VP 200 anomalies want to line this up.

I continue to like the period to begin sometime around Jan 10. My target period has been Jan 10 - Feb 20. We are currently in p6 and should heading around into p8 over the next 2 weeks. We will have to wait for the p6 lag to bleed off so even though we head into p7 I think the transition will begin close to the 10th. After that the alterations on the EPS day 9 - 14 vs yesterdays d 10 - 15 are already heading towards the GEFS which I like better. Hopefully these maps downloaded.. I don`t agree with the EURO taking the MJO into the null p after p7. The strat began to warm back on Dec 20 and it was similar to the warming that took place on Feb 20 earlier this year. The effects from that event ran from March 10 - April 20. So this year the SSW event is a full 2 months earlier ( no 2 events are the same ) but the modeling looks like it wants to develop 3 vortexes. One in Europe , One in Eurasia and One in the N/E N/A. These tend to run for about 60 days ( the caveat is where are they splitting ) . I think this one works.

I believe Jan 10 - Feb 20 is the core this year. Patience , you need to shake off an amplified p5 and that may take until Jan 10. ( that`s my start date here ) . Good luck to all.

You can see the where the core of the warming is working it`s way down at 30mb by day 10 and where that is leaving the 3 pieces. You are going to block right over the pole as the vortex is splitting into 3 pieces Eastern US / Europe / Eurasia seen on the EPS. It`s splitting in a great spot for cold. I believe this will get reflected from the 10th onward.

If you want to see how bad the CFS is , how does 7 / 8 and this 500 = plus 5 over the next 45 days , maybe the next 10 are plus 15 ( not modeled anywhere ) and we don`t recover ? So it`s not likely given this. Are the next 10 AN , yes , but once past the 10th , you have to see where even CFS is going.... This ^ doesn`t give you this .... The Model is garbage.

Patience , this warm up was seen by the EPS which did a great job drilling the trough in the west and correctly taking the MJO in a warm p5. Some of us had the warm up only lasting 10 days when in fact it`s going to end up being a warm 20 day period. So those of us who rushed it were way too fast. A 10 day hold in p5 does not make the entire winter and the MJO is on the move with the current SSW will produce this winter. This is the 2nd year in a row in which a SSW event happened as the MJO was stuck in a warm phase. Last year that SSW event began around Feb 20 with the MJO in p7 ( In FEB that`s warm ) . So the effects of blocking really took hold between March 10 - April 20 which lead to our NEG departures. You saw a 6 to 8 week period of BN temps as a result. This year while stuck in p5 ( Dec 5 is warm ) , the SSW event began around Dec 20 so it`s lead time could place the core of the cold between Jan 10 to Feb 20 which is very much in line with Tom and our thinking. Jan 10 - Feb 20 represent the core of the negative departures as far as dailies go so having the coldest anomalies during that time could be a perfect storm so to speak. Patience , we go through this every year. Nothing has changed.

You`re an idiot , he predicted a warm 20 day period starting on Dec 13- Jan 2 over a month ago. He has been spot on.

He forecasted a well AN period from Dec 10 - Jan 10. Has been preaching this warm up everyday for 3 weeks. He`s been using 02/ 03 ad nauseam. Doesn`t work everywhere , but the length of the break does. Not sure he`s a culprit here. Some of rushed the cold back , he was right , we were wrong. This break looks spot on.

Does this help ?

I think the Primary on the 28th has to cut because it digs into the 4 corners and kicks that ridge up for a day , I just think there`s a real oppo on the backside. I do think there is some front end ice on the 28th in the H/V because of the air mass in front of it has some low level cold air with it. The Canadian ensembles are too cold in the D 10 -15 , the GEFS looks a little too warm , so I took the EPS mid ground for the last 5 days of the month / front 5 at 2m.

EPS friend -Day 10 - 15 are much colder than this 7 day mean See the EPS day 10 -15 .

Pattern gets better after this weekends cutter , the EPS is BN all week next week with a poss light snow event just N and W . The last in a series of cutters is likely around the 27/28 , ( prob not strong - gets shredded ) and then by New Years you snow.

Those high heights have HP underneath them, so the 2M are BN all next week. You will prob see that cut but New Years could end up like the Super Bowl storm from 3 years ago. You are going to press and Arctic front through on the backside of that last SW and LP will prob want to run along the Arctic Boundary. This time you`re going to do that with blocking , so you have a higher ceiling for this one. Even though these heights are high , take a look at the same EPS anomalies for Mon - Thrs , they are BN

I was wrong on it , I thought it would get as far N as Philly into CNJ. Historic for NC/SC. Good for them.

Yes , Monmouth County. 6 fell in Colts Neck. I think someone picks up 6 down in SNJ today.

We had one in March 2014 in M/C. We got 6.

There is a chance that a 2 wave scenario materializes before the 10th or so. I know many would settle for one , but the loading phase at 500 a week or so prior to snowmaggedon showed some similarities about 10 days ago , so the following 10 to 15 days will be the period to watch. A mid month warm up is on the way , the question is for how long ?

How bad are the weeklies ? Old week 3 and 4 for the period ending Dec 10. Now look at the new week 2 ending Dec 10 Careful buying week 3 thru 6 again. This product is as bad as the CFS V2