BTRWx's Thanks Giving
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Everything posted by BTRWx's Thanks Giving
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For us in the eastern portion of the county at least.
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Has there ever been a winter where D.C. gets a big hit in December then nothing the rest of the season? That's what many winter outlooks would show considering this storm.
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Pivotal has D.C. around 8-10" depth.
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Nail biter!
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Early signs from the euro have the high lagging behind to the west of the last couple runs.
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I really don't like seeing the high trending further east.
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The way it's being modeled to bomb, it has to be a hybrid right?
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Depth
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You know the deal. Superstition is real here.
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A lot to ask for in mid-December.
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Isn't that expected for a weaker system in this scenario? Less warm air advection from the coastal center of circulation?
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D.C. is barely 1-3 on that map.
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That is good to see! Interesting to see the GEFS more consistent than the EPS.
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4 days out
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That looks much more realistic than other models have shown imo.
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That's a lot of uncertainty still.
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A foot in D.C. is highly unlikely imo.
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Probably too early for those specifics.
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You're right. I got the 12/0Z 6Z/18Z theory mixed up.
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Fwiw, pivotal depth shows D.C. around a foot.
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I think it's better to compare 12z to 12z and 0z to 0z.
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One factor to consider is how operational models tend to strengthen systems too much days prior. What that means is the coastal could be tucked too far into the coast or the coastal is being modeled too strong overall.
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I think a legit concern would be the high leaving too quickly.
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The high is 2mb weaker and slightly se of where it was yesterday's 12z run hr 78.
