kvegas-wx

Noticing a LOT of dead branches coming out of trees.  Some broken by Michael and the wet and wind brought them down last night, others just rotten from all the rain this year.  Either way, be careful in your yards and watch overhead trees in neighborhoods as you are walking or running.  Has me concerned that the first decent snowfall is going to cause a lot of power outages.

At last I see a "slight" chance of light snow in the forecast here in the Triad next Sunday night.  But still a few 70° highs to endure this week before we get there.  Purely going by the "count of bugs trying to get in my house" forecast, I'd say the cold is indeed coming soon.

16 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yes it is. It is legal to launch outside of the park boundaries to take a look. You just can't take off or land in state parks in NC.

Eyewall, amazing pics.  Whats your drone setup? I'm all in for Christmas this year.

Already a lot of wet, adding up to really wet, followed by more wet.  An over-producer based on the forecast.  I'd love to at least salvage Sunday but after a solid couple inches of rain (I'll check the gauge when I get home), no yardwork will be done!  Ugh.

First frost this morning!! Cars are icy across the triad.  Ground still a bit too warm. (But yes, rates could overcome...LoL!)

2 hours ago, yotaman said:

Peak wind gusts from around the region. https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/1050793498885201921?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1050793498885201921&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.city-data.com%2Fforum%2Fhurricanes%2F2973087-atlantic-michael-forms-october-7-2018-a-15.html%23post53353644

Man I have a hard time believing that.  I bet we had sustained 45mph winds here in Kernersville for nearly 20 minutes.  There definitely had to be a few gusts over 55mph but I guess that is whats recorded at KINT and/or KGSO.

Collectively all of these recordings just seem low to me given the damage.

How much rain did Danville get?  And down towards Stoneville? Hearing there was a lot of farm damage up there.  Tornado-ish?

Folks I was not a believer in the call for widespread heavy wind advisories.  Quite honestly, we've been through many tropical events that just pass us by in the triad and rarely if ever see more than a gusty day.  Outside of Hugo, there was nothing that set a precedent for this and in the end, I still think the discretionary alerts were the way to go.  I saw a post from Mack earlier that said his winds were unimpressive.  So the call was right for his area.  We were surprised here in the triad for about 45 minutes, but it was over a swath of maybe 20-30 miles at most.  How do you forecast that??  

I'm sure I'll stir up a hornets nest, not my intention, but I cant bash the mets here.  It was an impossible call.

Just got back from saving my neighborhood from downed trees.  What a huge mess! Power out everywhere.  Michael has given about everyone a little graze across the groin on his way out.  

No idea what my rain totals are now but given the state of a few local creeks, its a lot.  Never seen them that deep in 17 years of living here.

Bring on fall please! A very dry one!

Power just went out to a significant chunk of customers between Kernersville and Walkertown.  Roads blocked with downed trees.  The last 20 minutes or so changed the game on this event.

Hammer time in Kernersville.  Just watched 2 trees drop across from my house.  Brutal winds.  Not straight line....violent!

50 and below DPs piling up against the western apps now.  It wont be long before fall is here! Tomorrow afternoon and this weekend will pop the top off this pressure cooker of a summer.

Until then, 3-5" more rain.  It is POURING!!

Rainfall is quickly becoming a problem over the triad.  Michael's track is making the pivot point almost dead center around the triad.  We've had heavy rain all morning and now it looks like we get the backside as well.  I'd say another 6 hours of heavy downpours (at least).

Creeks are full, yards are flooded.  Any light winds could do some damage now.

Looking at the radar, they never made it to the eye.  They got stuck in the wall for the duration.  I pray that house holds up.  The car is just slamming into the side of it.

Hope on top of hope that they are ok.  They will definitely need a quick rescue after this.  Really bad move to head back to Mexico Beach.  Their car is done!

Is their car still broadcasting and FLOATING???  Where are they?  

EDIT - HOLY CRAP!  It is floating!!

No lie.....I am seriously concerned for Brett Adair.  Dude is trapped and is making one bad decision after another.

3 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

DT just posted on his Facebook page that Michael is now at 915mb and 160mph. Cat 5.

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Because of course he did.  Hype machine in full effect.  Whether it's winter with 2 foot snow storms or tropical armageddon, it makes headlines.  Not saying he's wrong, but I don't see it anywhere else....yet.  Not sure how he can always be "first to know" on literally all things weather.

Brett Adair in prime position to watch a bunch of sailboats capsize and sink at the marina in Port St Joe.  Must see tv!

Already hurricane force gusts ripping the docks to pieces.

I think Brett just realized he has to move.  Heard him talking about no safe structures in Mexico Beach and no plan B route except back to PC.  If he stays he's certifiably nuts.

Now talking about going to Pt St Joe.  Thinking 25' will be high enough there.  But no way I would risk that.  These guys are at serious risk.

Brett Adair is insane!!  He's parking himself literally in the eye at landfall.  Looking for a parking garage along the waterfront in Mexico Beach.  NUTS!!

2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

This is different than most storms for two reasons. The forward speed once inland and the fact that the worst of this storm could be on the NW side versus the typical east side. 

Agreed and understand.  However, across central NC we usually see 25-35mph gusts from significant tropical systems that pass thru.  So we get, 35-50 this time, big deal.  It's still thunderstorm type activity which can lead to downed trees and power lines.  That's really my point.  The mets aren't going to freak out over conditions that could come from a spring frontal passage, a summer storm, or a decaying tropical system.

Regardless, be prepared!

Calm down folks.  I don't want to underplay this for anyone in NC given the remaining damage from Flo, but generally speaking, a few inches of rain (localized, short term flooding) and some thunderstorm type gusts (localized damage where the gust occurred) usually don't cause mass notifications from the TV mets.  You get the usual alerts (which are already out from the NWS) and some updates on the half hours.

Power outages across the state are the most likely outcome here.  Beyond that, I say let's take a step back from the doom and gloom here in NC.  Leave that for the immediate coastline and 50-75 miles inland.

For Florence I saw a link to a power outage forecast for NC/SC.  Anyone know where that link is for the entire SE?  The power outages from this is going to be catastrophic over such a large rural area, not to mention some rather large cities like PC, ATL, Columbia, Wilmington, etc.

Do I hear Cat 4? What an amazing ramp up.  Very Katrina-esque as far as RI goes.