kvegas-wx

Local mets advertised this as an overnight 6-9 hour event.  So it either thumps heavy early or this will underperform for snow and IP.  A few hours of light ZR gets you .15-.2, which is exactly what the WSW and WWAs are calling for.  Hope for the frozen stuff but expect the wet.

10 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Try Fancy Gap

Agreed.  Or up I81 from there if you get really ambitious.  But your time may be limited unless you like chasing at night.  Wednesday morning might be better.

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Winter weather Advisory for Southside, just to the North are the Winter storm Warnings.

I was focused on Patrick County and the Stuart area which under a WSW, but yes, everything just east of there along the border is WWA.  Either way, Patrick County is so fickle with the elevation changes.  So I wouldnt expect to see much snow until you hit Hwy 58 from Lovers Leap to Galax.  

Blacksburg out with a more refined WSW for southern VA and western VA for up to 3" snow and sleet and a minor icing event.  Sounds more reasonable but rates will have to overcome the warming of todays 60°.

33 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Looks like that up to 7" includes everyone under the watch. As we get closer they will fine tune the details for different locations...

Yep, I see that now that I am back at my PC.  Didn't realize it was a broad advisory that stretched all the way to DC! 

WSWatch up for southern and SW VA elevated areas.  Just saw the post for stuart and it says "up to 7" of snow"...!!  I'm going to assume that means the elevated areas of Patrick County and not Stuart proper.  Anyone have a Bufkit for ROA that might show what elevation will see heavy snow?  

Eagerly awaiting my droopy branches and mostly rain.  Not on board with this one for snow even though Emily Bird just popped up an inch for the triad on her 11pm forecast.  She'll regret that graphic!

1 hour ago, wake4est said:

fv3 to become officially operational on March 20.

Winter over on March 21st.  So it has exactly 1 day to accurately forecast winter this year.  It's either gonna be all right or all wrong for 2019.  Such suspense!

Hey guys, got a new phone so I am searching for any new recommendations on weather apps.  Who likes what and is it free or paid?  TIA.

This thread should be closed, locked and burned.  Start another one for the second half of Feb.  Otherwise it should be renamed the "mid to long term between posts" thread.

This is so pathetic for winter.  I bet we are easily on pace to set records for the fewest number of events tracked, fewest posts for winter and fewest cliff jumpers....we never even climbed high enough to jump!

I'll come back in 24 hours to see the next post.  Maybe by then the models will show something better than an icy mix at 300 hours.

17 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Calling off winter 7 days into February is a bit ridiculous and premature. No,the pattern doesn’t bode well in the next week or so. But given how poorly models have handled winter thus far, I’m not giving them much credibility. We’ve had snow well into February and March. So, quit whining about something that could very well change within a few weeks.


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Ok, I'm just going to put one more hundy in the machine and then I'll quit.  Those wheels are bound to line up on jackpot soon baby!  I've been playing for 3 hours and lost my ass so I'm way overdue!

House odds, we lose.

Just go with a warm bias, for any model, cuz we all know that verifies more often than not.  You need consensus across at least 3 models just to hitch the horse to the wagon.  That still doesnt mean we mount up.  

So was the GFS model extended?  I thought it was slated to end in late Jan / early Feb?

Well it would be Valentines Day.  Mother Nature and Old Man Winter may be getting together for a quick fling.  And I do mean quick cuz there isnt any sustained cold on the horizon.  Sun angle coming into play and after this warm week ground temps will suck.  So its going to have to be the real deal as far as cold and I'm not seeing it here.  Temps around freezing wont get it done.

16 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

I'd give this winter a C- so far if it ends like this and not another flake falls. Not making light of how awful this year has been. It's just hard to give any lower than a C when you actually reached average snowfall. But jeez has this winter sucked for threats. No tracking at all outside December and no real cold air. I haven't been below 21 the whole winter imby. Not sure about the airports at GSP and CLT but that never happened even when I lived in CAE for 5 years. To call this winter a suck fest is being generous.

If I get 8 weeks of sunny and 50s/60s here in the Triad on top of my 14" of snow in Dec, I would give this winter and A++!  I was so incredibly annoyed that we lost our fall weather.  So to have a shot at redemption here is A OK with me!

Its over now despite what the models say.  Our groundhog friend said so.  I'm going with Phil.  

#teamphil #groundhogwx #g-hogsloveridges

Is 6" of snow every third Thursday too much to ask for in a winter?    But this is a bit ridiculous.  I'm not a fan of endless nuisance events or multiple big dogs because it just gets old.  If I wanted that much snow I would move north.  So yes, I love my 50's and 60's this next week and I'll get a ton done in the yard this weekend.  But the fact that we are going 10 hours at a time between posts in here is just nuts.  I honestly can't remember a winter this empty on the models, and certainly such a contrast to the wet year we just had.  

That rubber band that JB always talks about is getting really wound up.........

Maybe we can go into torch mode and start threads to track warmups to over 55°.  Of course the same result would happen across the board where the SC/GA peeps get ticked off because they easily blow past 55° while the NC and mountain peeps are the only ones posting because its gonna be "close". 

We cant win this year.  

Hello.....hello.....hello...

Is anybody in here.....here.....here.....

(Slams door and walks away confused and in search of model runs showing snow)

21 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

For those feeling the angst of a SH!TTY winter so far, just remember that the Winter of 1960 in North Carolina went SNOWLESS until Mid Feb of that year. The record for TOTAL Snowfall in a season was broken in Charlotte, NC. It snowed on February the 14th and then another lull until March 2nd, where the snowgates opened up and it snowed back to back to back. They ended up with 27" overall, which is way higher than the average 4-6 b/s we see. Just giving some food for thought that winter is not always over until April, etc. 

Before I was born....didnt happen.  Probably before everyone on this board outside of Old Man Burns.  He and Old Man Winter may have connected in 1960.

14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Temperature dropping rapidly here in Dry Fork, down to 43 from 48... once in the upper 30s, should start seeing some flakes...

Please Lord don't you bank on seeing flakes here.  The daytime temps are stubborn (just watch the temp animation) and the moisture will be long gone by the time you see much of a changeover.  This has fail for 98.5% of the people in this forum and 99% of the TV forecasters written all over it.  A black ice advisory is really all that merited any discussion IMO outside of any elevated areas.  

Cold chasing moisture never wor.........well, you know already.

Somebody is N GA is going to see about 90 seconds of snow according to radar this morning.  Hope all those kids that are out of school today enjoy those flakes! 

Meanwhile, people in the upper midwest are praying for our 33 and rain today.  Ya know, if mother nature could just average out our record wet years with a few polar vortexes the entire country would see multiple 6"+ snowfalls each year.  But of course people in San Diego would complain about that.  

Winter sucks.  (At least lately)

I'm sitting here in a warm sun in Stuart Va....in short sleeves.....in late January.  I could triple dog dare old man winter right now and he would just walk away in shame.  Stick a fork in it.  Other than a nuisance event this one is D..O...N....E!!

Just bring me a dry March so I can fix all the mud damage, regrade roads and get my seed down.  I'll be cleaning up dead trees and leaners for months thanks to the Big Wet known at 2018.

Supposedly we dont go above freezing from Tues night until mid day Friday in the Triad.  So this could be fun (annoying) with even minimal QPF.  

Take a step back, so what features are present that would either block the LP up the coast (dont see anything) and draw it back with a phase? (Thought we gave up on that already?)  Something has to be there for the models to keep hinting at a coastal.  I'm certainly not a modelologist so I'll sit back and learn.