kvegas-wx

2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well the GFS lost the idea yesterday but thankfully shows a cool down still coming after the 25th, with a reenforcement at the end of the month. Still way out there, but the 25 is 11 days out. If we can get it inside a week I'll feel a lot better about maybe getting that cooldown we all need. 

Look to the upper midwest at 6-7 days out and see if its really there.  Then all we need to worry about is breaking down the ridge.  I fear we are already seeing some familiar battle lines drawn.

6 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, we're already getting temps in 80s/60s while we're in a bad pattern. In July this would be at least 90s/70s.

Last year we started to see some foggy nights in mid/late September. We kept the higher dew point, and with the longer nights allowed the air to saturate. Looks like we might see more foggy nights this year...   

And that may be the only moisture your lawn sees as well unless the tropics come through for us.  I didnt get a drop from Dorian in the Triad.

If we lock in the SER again and sweat through October I think at least 70% of this board will need some sort of mental therapy.  The long range models are just not good at predicting pattern changes.....ever.  #trustbroken

There are benefits.....it is much easier to kill my lawn for reseeding when it is bone dry.  And I was able to open up a mile or so of atv trails yesterday on the tractor without sliding around in mud.  Beyond that, this is miserable!  I just hate to rely on a tropical system to break the pattern because we all know how bad the inland flooding can be across the hill country.

The nighttime lows are starting to crash into the lower 60s here in the Triad but we still have a couple of weeks to get past the tropical influence and reset the fall progression.  Looks like we will be running 5-7° high for the next 10 days or so.  

I swear if we get a SER that locks in I'll go postal.  I cant deal with that again this year.

4 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

How badly will I be internet shamed if I post my Nassau and CoCoCay Perfect Day cruise photos we are supposed to be on in 2 weeks??? 

All kidding aside honestly I hope they change the itinerary.....

 

You might be surprised.  They may port call and take you to Coco Cay and just not let you tour Nassau.  I bet they clean up Coco Cay real damn quick.  Two weeks is plenty of time to bring in dozens of private cleaning crews.

8 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

that's because drunk on power mid atlantic black ops mods hate NYC/NJ posters

Nope, lets get it right.  EVERYONE hates (non red-tag) NYC/NJ tropical posters. (love you guys in the winter though, kind of funny to watch the freakouts)  Evidently people in the Bahamas have nothing on "Sandy Survivors".  Give it up people.  Sandy, by comparison, was a little coastal flooding combined with a few EF-1 tornadoes for localized heavy damage.  Most of an island was just wiped off the map by Dorian.  No equals here.

Just give me Accuwxs "mainly pleasant" conditions all the way to Christmas Eve, then a 1 week long polar vortex between Christmas Day and New Years Day that dumps double our avg annual snowfall, then normal winter conditions for Jan/Feb and I'll deal with whatever is left over in March.

It's not that hard Mother Nature.  It's just not that hard. 

26 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said:

If the GFS is right we will be waiting until at least the 4th week of the month for a shot at a brief cooldown/drier air. Not unusual, but the chances will really start ramping up by the end of the next 6 weeks.

So much for that August "polar vortex".  Looks like it is skipping off to the Northeast leaving us with basically normal temps, maybe a couple degrees cooler, and dry here in the triad.  I'm just going to wait for mid-Sept to cash in my chips for a cool and crispy, leaf crunching fall.

3 hours ago, yotaman said:

We typically don't see low 70's and 50's at night until mid October.

I didnt think the sandhills would be that far behind the triad but you are correct.  Went and looked at the averages and you are a solid 3-4 weeks behind us through Sept/Oct.  I need some 50's soon!

Daily Hi/Lo averages across the triad and most of the carolinas dont really fall much in August.  September is the cliff.  Drops from mid 80's down to low 70's for Highs and down into the low 50' for lows.  So not much relief....yet.  But certainly a pause from 90's for many.

It's way too early to be worried about cold and snow but what is all this nonsense popping up in my Youtube feeds about August cold, amazing fall snow totals, polar vortexes and the like??  You would think winter starts tomorrow and its going to be epic!  I think once I clicked on one video Youtube turned my recommendations into weather weenie central.

7 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Hopefully we can get a break early next week:

From RAH:

The chances of much needed showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase by Monday into next week as a pattern change to less ridging and more troughing over the region occurs. A cold front or two should stall over the region during this time frame acting as a focus for convection.

 

Fantastic!  I'll be in Jacksonville FL all week.  Looks to be the hottest place on the planet.  Just what I needed.

I must be in a microclimate here in Forsyth County the last week or so.  It seems like it has rained every day.  Its raining now!  We had FFWs in Winston 2 nights ago.  I dont need much more rain right now, but I'm sure many do.  

13 weeks to October.  Countdown underway.......

Seeing some hints around the interwebs of a cooler than normal, less humid spell coming in the 10 day range.  I'm so dang busy I have no time to play in the weather, much less watch models, so I'll leave it to the experts here.  Any truth to this coming July Ice Age?

When that storm came through Kernersville earlier today the wind was strong enough to blow the rain bands out ahead of the storm.  It was raining sideways with the sun still out for about a minute.  Havent seen that before.

9 hours ago, griteater said:

No sign of any big heat ridges on the ensembles over the next 15 days

If there was such a thing as a humidity ridge the ensembles would be showing that for sure cuz I'm kinda feelin' like we're sitting right under a luke warm water faucet right now.  We just can't win here with weather anymore.  I don't need 3 months of humid and wet.  I had that last year.

Line that just went through the Triad was amping up the whole time.  Very heavy rain, maybe some pea size hail and some solid lighting activity.  Radar is loaded.  Wouldnt want to be in central and eastern NC today if all of these cells start going severe.

3 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Storm that just moved through Winston probably needs a TOR soon

Hope not.  I am under it as we speak! 

I was hoping these storms would set up just east of the Triad as often happens.  Not today.  Some good looking cells kicking off just east of the mountains and I have a warning here in Stuart already today.  Could be a hail damage kinda day!

18 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Do I dare mention...

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2019052818/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_eus_6.png

Perfect.  Early cold flip, then another December Destroyer snow storm, and then.....well, we know what happens next.  I give this prediction a 99.8% chance of verifying.  The .02 leaves room for a Yellowstone eruption.

I see the head of a two tone young cow.  The grayed out snout is east of SC, then the eye with the white striped forehead just to the west of the eye, and then the ear is the little loop just to the east of where the forehead stripe ends.

On another note, I need brighter security lights up at the house in Stuart VA.  The only lights in that half of VA is in Roanoke!

I know this isnt covering the Triad, but dang it sure feels like a thunderstorm kinda day.  I just need some rain.....cant believe I just said that.

On 4/8/2019 at 7:01 PM, eyewall said:

Had a bit of a pollen haboob in Chapel Hill/Durham:

 

And before the storms it looked like this in Durham:

Dang Jeremy, you're famous!!!  You made national news and the DrudgeReport front page with these pics!  Hope there are some royalties with that.  You just received hundreds of millions of impressions!

14 hours ago, SENC said:

I believe it's 'time" to let this thread die..  Hopefully Fall~Winter 2020 will be much better.. 

God Speed Winter 2018~2019, We "believed" until...   

 

So you're saying there isn't going to be a mid to long term in 2019???!!  Man I hope you are wrong.  Or else all this hard work I am doing right now is for naught.  Please let me know if you think we only have a few days, or maybe weeks left.  So much to do, so little time!!  

If you want to go kill the winter thread, that's ok.  

Storm watches have been posted by RAH and Blacksburg. Now up to almost 80 here in the triad.