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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Sweet then I hope it stays locked and loaded for Xmas eve
  2. Thinksnow18
    It’s the 6z that people with a paid subscription can see.
  3. Thinksnow18
    What’s humorous is the WIVb future look showed the NAM scenario of snow overspreading WNY but the Met Andrew Baglini downplayed it...
  4. Thinksnow18
    Well then if the Goofus is Hot then it has now for 3 runs shown a basic blizzard for Xmas day for upstate and the track is believable
  5. Thinksnow18
    I don’t think anyone thought this was going to weaken so much and just basically become a wave vs. a tightly wound up LP.
  6. Thinksnow18
    Yeah and I think at one time our of that 5 1/2” I may have had 2 inches at best OTG at one time. Not once this year with snow cover and no grass.
  7. Thinksnow18
    I didn’t realize we may end 2020 with a near snowless December
  8. Thinksnow18
    I’m interested in the details when the meso models come into better range. They are horrible with lake enhancement and lake effect so there may be a part of these we don’t see yet
  9. Thinksnow18
    Yup the more we waste these months the more the seasons get messed up
  10. Thinksnow18
    Yep it’s called April
  11. Thinksnow18
    I honestly can’t handle the mid Atlantic scoring before we do...
  12. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I’m surprised this is such a progressive pattern.
  13. Thinksnow18
    The wild swings the models are showing ,especially the GFS is ridiculous. You posted the 18z yesterday showing at the end of its run the PV is almost upon us, the very next run is so opposite that you’d think the program malfunctioned. Models are really struggling right now with the data
  14. Thinksnow18
    Well at least my mud will freeze
  15. Thinksnow18
    In this scenario Allegheny co in WNY is under a WSW and advisories got Catt, Wyoming, Chautauqua and S. Erie...one more bump and we’re singing a much different tune
  16. Thinksnow18
    And I just looked at the 18z snow map through hour 142...the difference in the 12z is pretty big. 12z had no heavy accumulation above the PA line the 18z is almost 6” to Catt county and north with dark green 12+” we’ll into Binghamton and north. It even for the first time it had a numerical 3” at KBUF and 4” at KSYR
  17. Thinksnow18
    Exactly. The low as Wolfe just showed with the last 4 runs has shifted west. They can’t be positive on its track 5 days out just like we can’t
  18. Thinksnow18
    Yes because they’re going off of the runs they have
  19. Thinksnow18
    Looks like it might be shifting a bit more! Still think won’t get a true sample until tomorrow’s runs but this is encouraging
  20. Thinksnow18
    It’s not even that strong
  21. Thinksnow18
    Yeah this is getting pretty depressing. We’re not used to this and honestly I’m not in the mood for waiting two more weeks. Well I guess there’s not much to do but watch sports.
  22. Thinksnow18
    Xmas grinch storm on the LR GFS...wonder if we see one LES event this year...
  23. Thinksnow18
    Too consistent if you ask me
  24. Thinksnow18
    Agreed
  25. Thinksnow18
    12z has some subtle differences from the 6z...there is a secondary low not depicted on any runs but is clearly in the Ohio valley. The GFS is having a hard time with this feature and I believe this is our inverted trough that shoots us back our moisture source. I have a feeling this will begin to show up by tomorrow afternoon
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