Thinksnow18

Wasn’t there a storm last year that the icon nailed when all the other models lost it? If anyone remembers this it’s Dave or Wolfie...

I’ve been saying that for days!!! I mentioned the inverted trough idea at least 3 days ago...it was clear in all the models a trough or low was near Ohio or NW PA but moisture never made it up here, now we’re 24 to 36 hours away I think the idea has legs...

I’ve had a skinny band off Huron/Georgian Bay for about 20 minutes and everything is white. This is a very fluffy snow and if this would persist for hours it would accumulate quickly. The ground froze last night which will also help with less melting, I am thing 3-5” for metro and north with ratios of 15 to 1 and more qpf in the models

Are we seeing an area wide WWA event taking shape?

Yep about right. That would have the Buffalo metro about 2-3”

Yep! The snow was so deep we could sled down where the street plows out the excess around each corner. It was awesome

The 6z would have quite a cold snap after Xmas and a bunch of clippers. I take.

If the euro output is right it would have .2” of liquid equivalent over KBUF with temps in the 20’s a ratio of 15 to 1 would equate to almost 4”. Now that’s not a big deal in all accounts, however, the NWS says an inch for the Buffalo-Syracuse line...high confidence. KBUF has never been hyped about this.

I remember that storm so we’ll. I didn’t have school for 4 days as it snowed just about every night. That was one of the best childhood snow memories

I literally believe the GFS has showed just about every option for that timeframe today...from a blizzard on the 6z to a cutter rain storm and LES event to this thing...

Is there a last minute Hail Mary?

Yeah that is the snow hole of NY...In 2020 anything is on the table

It’s subtle but the 00z GFS has a broader snow shield over WNY and has 7+ inch snows near the letchworth area. Even Buffalo on this tin would be 2-4”...small victories

Boing

Ummmmmm...see you in spring?!?!?! I mean after all we can build a walkway leading down...

So BuffWeather is on to something regarding the -EPO. All 3 indices will be in the proper level for us to be cold the ENTIRE month of December yet we are barely getting any cold air with the exception of the next 3 1/2 days finally. I’d love to learn more about the EPO

The local WIVB future look shows the snow reaching all of WNY and giving all from Buffalo south and east and 3+ further southeast...it doesn’t add in any lake enhancement from Ontario at all.

Lmao...I just read the AFD from the exciting crew at KBUF...isn’t he upper Genesee river and western finger lakes just a fancier term for the Rochester area? Because they’re under a winter weather advisory for 3-5” Wednesday night...help me Dave...

First off Steve I hope your daughter gets better soon!!! As I was told we had wait 5-7 days from the first positive test. They include that day so tomorrow is our day 5 and the 4 of us are being tested tomorrow morning. Here’s the rub...once you have a positive case in your home you must receive the full nasal frontal lobotomy and wait the 3-to 5 standard days to wait for the results. Of any of you turn up positive you can go back up to 5 days to the original positive test and then your 10 days begins from there if you had symptoms. Myself and my wife have minor cold symptoms but our daughter who tested positive has a soar throat and nasty cough...so far (knocking on wood) no one has had a fever, lost taste or smell or short of breath. The process for this is decent and is pretty helpful. The contract tracer called us Sunday evening and is really unhappy with her gymnastics center. They will be contacting them today.

That band is getting healthy

Not everyone. Hey look boys we’ve had many tough starts before and have had some of our most epic events as those shitty starts transformed in incredible events. Hold the faith, or get drunk trying!!!

And it’s the only damn model that shows it!!!

BW with all due respect those temps from the 22nd on are highs in the 20’s area wide.

Right the GFS is treating it more like an open wave

The GFS snowstorm is gonzo for Xmas day but as eluded to by Wolfie it’s cold and clipper like...I’m starting to sense a longer term winter like pattern evolution...also FWIW Cohen shows the GFS model having 2 more wave impulses the rest of December which will continue to beat the PV down a bit and make way for potentially more significant winter weather in January