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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    The update at 152 was the same, may not change until the 3pm text
  2. Thinksnow18
    That’s metro center cut...models always struggle with this...they lean to the typical snow belts even when a scenario pops that shows different
  3. Thinksnow18
    Toss both...this has the Cleveland suburbs getting 24”...
  4. Thinksnow18
    Boom
  5. Thinksnow18
    Have faith Dave I don’t think the models are done shifting at all
  6. Thinksnow18
    That’s actually a Delaware park to southern Niagara special. I grew up in NT and recognize this band...this will fire hose and we all end up with a foot plus
  7. Thinksnow18
    12z is out and still a good synoptic hit...waiting for the next panels
  8. Thinksnow18
    Yeah weird run...all these models showing incredibly different scenarios is like listening to sandstorm on loop at a rave with mollies...
  9. Thinksnow18
    I’m actually getting a bit concerned about that...the more west these tracks become the further west that pulse goes and might make a 230 vector vs a 240 or 250
  10. Thinksnow18
    That’s the pulse I’ve been saying! It’s not the primary on this one it’s a LP behind this system...wherever that parent low goes the pulse wave behind goes. As long as the parent low is over WNY or just east we’re good. That would be about 18 hours over KBUF before a shift south
  11. Thinksnow18
    But the lake effect would be all Buffalo north
  12. Thinksnow18
    They only put in their amounts for their zone...for example they have Geneva )finger lakes) with 3”...that’s not lake effect nor is the 4” for Rochester...still expect 3 to 5 for all areas east of the finger lakes for the synoptic part
  13. Thinksnow18
    Hopefully you guys score something
  14. Thinksnow18
    I take...that’s also low end too, right? Don’t they usually have an expected and high end? Wonder what that shows. FWIW they nailed the last map..had KBUF at 2.5 and I believe they ended with 2.6
  15. Thinksnow18
    Are the meso models coming into their timeframe?
  16. Thinksnow18
    Where do you live? I always wonder what part of the state fellow weenies are getting screwed or jackpotting
  17. Thinksnow18
    Always true with Lake effect!!! It has a mind of its own
  18. Thinksnow18
    You’re model hugging way too much. Don’t get fooled by the run to run changes. The mean flow will be SW with a shift to WSW for a time and then back to SW. all is good.
  19. Thinksnow18
    Question is how would they split the 2 up? That would be a lot of public confusion
  20. Thinksnow18
    I like that 21” at KBUF
  21. Thinksnow18
    Latest GFS might’ve been the best run yet. It is now inside 72 hours before this changeover occurs so in all reality we’re not far off from knowing a more certain outcome
  22. Thinksnow18
    And blasts the metro after
  23. Thinksnow18
    All snow now in Williamsville...not accumulating much but the band in radar looks to be getting a bit better organized
  24. Thinksnow18
    Do I smell a really big metro event?
  25. Thinksnow18
    Still amazing to this day that such a wide swath received 3+ feet of snow from southern Niagara to the south towns...that might be once in a life time
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