Thinksnow18

That’s a lot of cold opportunities

I’m curious about pattern recognition memory. The PV starting off weak could benefit us as the winter unfolds.

There are some very good signals and astonishingly good agreement on the global models that November looks active and colder later in the month. Seeing the CFS show the only month above avg being December was also surprising. We might have a good chance at a decent winter this year.

I think it’s a front loaded winter based in the current state of LaNina, the already weakened PV and colder waters off Newfoundland. The caveat is the pac is still a bit hostile and may slow any real prolonged cold spells. I think we average near normal snowfall due in large part to mid November and December bring above average in snowfall and BN temps. January is a transition month and I believe February is AN temps BN snowfall

I mean reading your comment on here l, let’s just say your input and wit are great for this forum…then again it would be nice to have a really good old fashioned winter again…what am I saying, I know a great real state agent in Green Bay…

So the 12z GFS is really trying to fire up a wintery situation over the next 14 days.

And I know it’s the GFS so handle with care, but it is really showing a lot of lows that would give the metro area some excellent LES events if it were 5 or so weeks from now. Look at the 6z from this morning, the Saturday 10/23 looks incredible for a huge event, and if comes to fruition will be a rain event. Crazy we’re getting here this fast

I agree with this. November December look cold, January transition month and February March early spring…if we can get 2 or 3 really good LES events and one good synoptic event I’d consider this a success

TWC has its winter temp outlook out (for fun purposes only) but I think the lot of us would be surprised which way they’re leaning…

Wow that’s legit low 40’s for lower elevations and 30’s for the hills…of course it has the same chance at happening as TugHill does becoming a good luck charm and changing all our winter fortunes but at least it’s amusing…

Was in Cheektowaga near pine ridge, our first home, 7 days w/out power. Left our house at 9pm as I was already sensing a big problem on the horizon, packed up the Saturn, and my wife and at the time our 1st child (3 total now) went to her mom and dads in Hamburg. It took us 1 hour 45 minutes to get there and 90% of the drive was in total darkness. We arrived just before 11pm to total darkness in Hamburg a d all I remember were the insane amount of blue-green flashes seemingly in every direction as all the power grids were failing. We left our first rottie in the house snd went back the next day. I took my father in-laws truck and it was spectacular to see all the down trees, power lines and stuck vehicles…in fact when we finally arrived at the Harlem bridge over the rail yard it was like driving through a navigation course going around all the stuck vehicles. When arrived at our neighborhood I couldn’t get down my street, had to go the street behind ours and drive over a fallen telephone pole…we were only able to get as far as the corner near my house and had to walk the rest of the way to get our dog. Never forget it.

Yup it was well forecast…in fact the amount of activity that is forecast to move through this game might be called.

As to my earlier post, it was 1998 Chiefs vs Seahawks October 4th…game was stopped for 54 minutes 3.36” of rain fell during that time between 7-9pm…was a serious situation in the KC metro area…tonight looks no different…

First legit cold shot still showing up, albeit for a couple days on GFS next week…it’s been consistent at least

This could rival that one Monday night game about 20 or so years ago that dropped 5 1/2” on KC and the game was postponed

Yeah I’m not into the long range models anymore. Take with a whole pound of salt

Bills game Vs the Chiefs tonight could have done severe weather implications…could be a long night if delays hit.

If that held serve Dec-Jan COULD be very snowy months and February a slopfest.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but…keep torching!!! Bring the sizzle because if it’s right that warm October’s lead to colder November and December weather then this will be worth it…

I’ll give this one more week…after that I’m organizing a mob to oust TugHill…

Fixed it…

This has been a very wet last 6 weeks with over 8” at KBUF in that timeframe. This makes me breathe a bit easier as the more soil moisture we can get now will stay as it gets cooler and eventually colder jelling the cold air to not modify as much coming up.

This definitely has some legs…the other 2 forums of note are also discussing this very topic and I’m the trend is to be colder by the end of October and then Nov-Dec look colder on average. I would take that.

Yes much more than forecast. I think our sensible weather forecasting is getting worse with each passing year. And these temps? Putrid. By the time we reach early next week the avg high is around 63-64 and lows should be mid 40’s…we’ll be 10 to 15 degrees above that…even when it “cools” down mid month it’s still 5 to 8 degrees above normal. If this is a sign of things to come it may be best just to check out early before hopes get up.

My question is how is UB (a mesonet run reading) almost 8 degrees colder than the airport right now? I guess I’d like to know if this is an acceptable reading as it is monitored by the U of Albany.