Thinksnow18

Anyone notice the incredibly heavy band of rain just to our west?

What amazed me to this day when I look back on that time frame was how much it WNY was buried under 24+” of snow…that is hard to do in January and February let alone the 3rd week of November

If that 3rd panel comes to fruition I will cancel the intervention I had set up for tug hill

We did have an early season storm a week after Halloween. I remember it poured that Halloween night and I was thinking to myself if it was only 10 degrees colder it would’ve been a pretty big snowfall…then about a week later it was…I’m with you a mangled flake or two, even a slushy coating would be great by me. Maybe it’s my superstitious nature but I feel that when we have a big out of season. Snowfall (October to mid November) the following winter season Is a bit of a bust. I don’t have the data to back that up but the 3 years that early significant snows occurred we finished the season below normal in the snowfall department.

And only because I had OCD one morning…you know that’s a terrific point BW…I wonder if when the mice yo the airport was made to now the temperature has slowly increased at that area has become further developed but it wasn’t enough to see a great increase. Now that there’s comparable data it looks much greater.

GFS and Euro high Res still showing cold dump first week of November, wash rinse repeat, but now even two of the 2 of the 3 local Mets have mentioned an early taste of winter following this week.

And the Euro?

The two globals GFS and Euro hi res have consistently been all over a cold dump about a week out…just the first couple days of November but many chances for systems to bring colder air in.

Euro and GFS have temps within 10 days that would be low to mid 40’s for lower elevations and 30’s for higher elevations…both in synch around the 1st few days of November

That’s odd because it’s almost -6c in that map

Oddly I don’t see many warming days and if the GFS is to be believed (big if) then there’s quite a bit of wintry weather over the next 2 weeks. Each run gets colder snd colder and euro high res seems to agree. That timeframe of November 3-6 would be watched

I mean it’s about 3 weeks after he infamous October surprise so truthfully this could have legs, especially if it’s over night

Euro Hi-res also shows at the very end of its run what appears to be an eastern cold dump. Could be looking at our first flakes first week of November.

That makes roughly 14” since September 1st

That track right there is actually a perfect track for all of upstate during the winter. I agree with a lot of your post. Pattern memory is a thing too in the atmosphere and may continue into the cold months/

Its also only in the “leaning above” category which means plenty of cold shots, line it up right with the moisture and boom…

Rain looks to be ahead of schedule. Should be here In WNY by 1pm. Most models are way behind in the late afternoon early ev…at least per WIVB this morning

Just as surprised as the models being wrong as I am that the Keebler elves don’t make the cookies, Rudolph really not having a red nose and Tug Hill being an actual snow jinx

I’m not sure where that chatter evolved from due partly in most cases the models are in good agreement the PV stays weak for a while.

November ‘14???

I read on the AFD this morning that this weekend is the last time the first and freeze warnings will be used for the season…and if I’m correct they haven’t issued one yet. Let that sink in.

So. If you drive down transit heading north towards Lockport, that’s where the ridge at eastern hills is. The Sheridan dr underpass is the ridge to “transit Valley”. This COULD be one of the reasons why my area and north to UB are colder than KBUF…however it doesn’t make sense to the east towards Lancaster. That area was almost 9 degrees colder this am.

I listen to the NOAA weather radio in my truck at times of the day, and the Uber interesting part to me is the low at KBUF fir yesterday was 44 deg at 11:43 pm last night! How is it possible that at 6am it was actually warmer? There was a scattering of light frost by my plant in Lancaster which exactly 5 miles east of KBUF. My house 3 miles north of KBUF was at 40 degrees. Just really trying to find the reason for this.

Again…46 at KBUF…and aren’t you near the lake now???

Calling the temperature police!!! 40 at Williamsville, 36 at Lancaster and…drum roll please…46 at KBUF!!! How…