Thinksnow18

I agree…sadly

Looking at the 6z GFS does anyone else feel like you’re on a roller coaster? 3 days of cold, 3 days of warm, 3 cold, 3 warm…

Oh look rainstorm #1 of 10 for the mid Atlantic..

Yep!!! Went last year with the family…was incredible

That will be snow. I’m starting to get the feeling, and NWS is too that the precip will be heavy enough to drop the temps in that band

I agree. With the right rates and wet bulb that could be a surprise

I agree with this. Plus once again it was full sun at KBUF yesterday and no wind at all. Let’s also take into effect KBUF is about 10 miles inland from the lake. So the only way the temp gauge would be influenced by the lake is a SW wind pushing 52 degree air towards it…and all other sites would have a similar temperature range.

The GFS 0z has 2 snow events and a LES event beginning this upcoming weekend. Looks very active

Those were the days, especially when Don would call out the “Double Whopper w/cheese”

WIVB put their winter forecast out I believe on Wednesday and they were forecasting above normal snowfall and average to slightly above avg temps during December-February. Looks like most are looking at the historical data regarding the warm October’s, the second year of La Niña and the already weak PV.

Yea that was a good year for most of WNY. Hopefully With a strong start to lake effect season we can all cash in early

Damn ‘13-‘14 for the win…and then there is last years, that’s insane!!! Almost makes me wonder if TugHill moved there…

But isn’t that our issue in general regarding the temperature as well? As long as KBUF is front and center the rest isn’t important.

Finally!!! Saw the first true flakes about 30 minutes ago! Brief shower moved through and wet snow mixed in for about 10 minutes.

I mean I’ve been trying for some time now…

GFS (12z) really wants to drop the hammer in 10 days…hi Rez Euro 12z is just in the outside of that time donut looks to be a similar setup…gfs wants us to have a poss storm and Euro looks like we would have a big LES set up

Seems right…and if the GFS is cooking up what it’s been showing for that 3rd week, it is in line with some of Buffalo’s early season big LES events…oh we had graupel in Lancaster this am on Broadway and up Bowen to William…then in the jobsite on transit in Elma

I saw on the weather channel about 45 minutes ago that NYC has measured 10” rain July, August, September and 4.3 so far in October…almost 35” since July 1st!!! Our annual rainfall in Buffalo is I believe 38” for the year!!! It has definitely been wet in the North East

It’s been a deluge for the better part of 2 hours…in fact from almost the moment it began to rain it was moderate to heavy. The 6pm update @ KBUF said .67” but it has to be over an inch especially with the amount of ponding and standing water on the roadways, even the mains WITHOUT leaves snd fall debris.

I think the euro coming out soon will show a similar track , but, has been more bullish on snow further west

Something is definitely wrong

Mike Cejka on channel 4 in Buffalo this morning showed the euro output for next weekend…while I’m my heart I’m aware this will not come to fruition, I do believe we will see highs at the lower elevations in the upper 30’s for a few days and the higher elevations may not crack freezing a few of those days. It will definitely feel wintery at the very least next weekend, and we’ll see about the snow.

Agreed!!! Thick frost in Williamsville and Lancaster! In fact my windshield had frozen water droplets as well as frost….below 32 possibly?

Look this morning!!! It’s very noticeable…34 in Williamsville, 32 Lancaster, 33 Tonawanda…39 KBUF

One would think that were beginning to see a pattern that will be conducive to many opportunities for snow chances over the next 6 weeks. All globals are showing a pattern change to colder weather with systems traversing the region consistently. The GFS had been showing a pretty substantial Low that winds up over the GL in 7 to 10 days…euro not as amped but we are potentially even colder. I like what I see and hopefully we see something like today in about 4 weeks when enough cold is around to make this a pretty significant event.