Thinksnow18

Lowered accums to 3-7" northern Erie

I still feel that the lower elevations "accums" will be less than forecast by the end of the event due to melting...snowing in Williamsville now, barely anything sticking and yet on a board they will be able to measure it. 

It always amazes me how 20 miles and elevation make a world of difference in totals and intensity.

Yeah it's a touch too warm in Williamsville right now...although on radar it looks much more impressive than what's falling outside 

10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

You can actually see where its starting to form on this radar view.

That almost looks like a large meso low

KBUF has a WWA for Northern Erie, Genesee for 5 to 9 inches 7pm tonight through tomorrow afternoon. There's discussion of a convergence band developing in the southtowns out through the Genesee Valley late this afternoon. I'm still thinking a couple inches best at KBUF but this area could receive the 5-9 they are predicting.

31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro weeklies look toasty in weeks 3 and 4. Thinking short weather for Christmas around these parts. It's warm from Mid December to the first week of January which coincides with the MJO cycle. 

Are we currently in phase 8? If so where is the consistent cold? I guess I look at it this way if aren't scoring at the lower elevations, and we've had chances, then we might as well pull for a trend to milder conditions which will lengthen the lake effect opportunities in January.

NWS buf going with 2-4" for lake plains including buffalo...still think low end of that at best due to marginal temps and plenty of melting on the ground at first.

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Lori dengert

I'm having a hard time thinking that where I live in Williamsville that I'm on on the 6-8" range. I'd be surprised if we received 2"

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is someone who lives on top of the hill in Perrsburg who has been reporting from there for the last 20 years. I forget her name, but she is a regular that Don Paul keeps in contact with. I believe she had 275" last year, it is the sweet spot off of Erie. 

Lori dengert

It appears from this vantage point that we will be seeing a more synoptic/hybrid lake enhanced snows on Wednesday for a good chunk of the CWA...my thoughts are most get some accums with the areas with of buffalo and tug hill to northern Oswego jackpotting off Ontario. After that we warm again and then another cold shot. 

This forecast for the next 2 weeks is starting to take a toll on our number of people interested imby weather. With what looks to be southern tier snows-tug hill snows followed by mild spells then wash, rinse repeat southern tier-tug hill LES...ugh...thank God the Sabres are smokin hot.

For those of us from the old WIVB weather blog we have a Don Paul sighting!!!

It's in reply to the CFS V2 predicting a warmer December and January now and many people slamming the model for predicting a warm November as well.

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Can see the contour of the winds WSW/SW towards Cleveland and W towards Buffalo. You can also see the weak low pressure system a couple hundred miles north of Ontario. Plenty of moisture, decently aligned flow, enough cold air, should be a good event. 

Yeah that LP needs to be about 300 miles to the west right above lake superior foe a metro event. Like I said earlier this shaping up to be a nickle and dime year for the Niagara Frontier.

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tough to get that this time of year. Next Sunday looks quite warm, potential at 60 degs.

THAT we don't need!!! If the forecast verifies this week with heavy LES in the typical belts then there will be some serious flooding at catt creek and southern tier subsidiaries. Btw what happened to cold start to December??

Starting to think outside of the westerly and northwesterly snow belt regions the rest of us will be nickle and dimeing our way to decent snowfalls accumulations

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I agree, such a breath of fresh air this year with this team.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 

Well said!!! 

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Because we lost our best player from last year. Set the record in faceoff wins, a great defensive player, and a leader (I thought). He's playing incredible in St. Louis, well over a point per game. I think the biggest difference this year is the skill level of Skinner, Dahlin, and most importantly improving our goalie situation. Hutton has stopped so many odd man rushes and breakaways. 

Advance stats suggest we're getting more pts than we should and we should expect a regression to the mean, but man is this team fun to watch!

25th in expected goals (xG)
19th in corsi for %
19th in fenwick for %
24th in scoring chances for %
24th in high danger scoring chances for %

Leaders make teams better...every team ROR has left has been remarkably better the next year. Check it out for yourself...the avs got better, now the sabres got better, subsequently he came to us we got worse now they just fired their coach in St. Louis. Points and faceoff wins mean nothing just ask Connor mcdavid. We are MUCH better without him. Addition by subtraction. Same with Kane.

Wait the airport has had 6"??? I lI've about 2 maybe 3 miles north as the crow flies and I'd be shocked if we had 1/2 of that. Now if they're including melted frozen thats melting on the grass but not a snowboard them I can't day that's false.

The models have that band sweeping west over time tonight eventually reaching buffalo south...oh wait buffalo doesn't get snow...nevermind the models are broken...

 Yeah skies trying to clear here in west Seneca right now as well. Next week MIGHT be interesting IF the closed low retrogrades far enough back west when the cold air deepens.

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Right in the thick of the band, pouring snow, some graupel mixing in from time to time..

May be able to squeeze out a 1/2’ total with some scraps tonight..

 

What's this snow you speak of???

2 minutes ago, WNash said:

The cold front is coming through, but we're just getting light pingers. When will we ever get something to overperform? Or even perform as forecasted? We can't even meet minimal advisory criteria. 

I cant even meet broom worthy snow to this point.

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We got over 2" here. Another Southern Erie event. 

Point is the warmer air wasn't forecasted to the degree that mixing was an issue. This has been more problematic this year and has kept down accums on the Niagara frontier. And looking out to next week and beyond it doesn't look to change much. 

Everything falling the past 3 hours has been a mix of graupel. Sleet and rain...none of which was forecast and currently 34 degrees...wake me up in 3 weeks.